Introduction to the Australian Fire Danger Rating System†

Jennifer J. Hollis; Stuart Matthews; Paul Fox-Hughes; Saskia Grootemaat; Simon Heemstra; Belinda J. Kenny; Sam Sauvage

doi:10.1071/WF23140

RESEARCH ARTICLE (Open Access)

Previous Next Contents Vol 33(3)

Introduction to the Australian Fire Danger Rating System^†

Jennifer J. Hollis ^A ^C ^* , Stuart Matthews ^A ^D , Paul Fox-Hughes

^B , Saskia Grootemaat ^A ^E , Simon Heemstra ^A , Belinda J. Kenny ^A ^F and Sam Sauvage ^B

+ Author Affiliations

- Author Affiliations

^A New South Wales Rural Fire Service, 4 Murray Rose Avenue, Sydney Olympic Park, NSW 2127, Australia.

^B Bureau of Meteorology, 7/111 Macquarie Street, Hobart, Tas. 7000, Australia.

^C Present address: Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Brain Street, Manjimup, WA 6258, Australia.

^D Present address: Nova Systems, 100 William Street, Woolloomooloo, NSW 2011, Australia.

^E Present address: NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service, 4PS, 12 Darcy Street, Parramatta, NSW 2150, Australia.

^F Present address: Nature Conservation Council of NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia.

^* Correspondence to: jennifer.hollis@dbca.wa.gov.au

International Journal of Wildland Fire 33, WF23140 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF23140

Submitted: 11 September 2023 Accepted: 8 February 2024 Published: 18 March 2024

© 2024 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of IAWF. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND)

Abstract

Background

Fire danger rating systems are used daily across Australia to support fire management operations and communications to the general public regarding potential fire danger.

Aims

In this paper, we introduce the Australian Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS), providing a short historical account of fire danger rating in Australia as well as the requirements for an improved forecast system.

Methods

The AFDRS combines nationally consistent, spatially explicit fuel information with forecast weather and advanced fire behaviour models and knowledge to produce locally relevant ratings of fire behaviour potential.

Key results

A well-defined framework is essential for categorising and defining fire danger based on operational response, the potential for impact and observable characteristics of fire incidents. The AFDRS is modular, supporting continuous and incremental improvements and allowing upgrades to components in response to new science.

Conclusions

The AFDRS provides a new method to estimate fire danger based on the best available fire behaviour models, leading to potentially significant improvements in the way fire danger is calculated, forecast and interpreted.

Implications

The Australian Fire Danger Rating System was implemented in 2022, the most significant change to fire danger forecasting in Australia in more than 50 years.

Keywords: bushfire risk, bushfire hazard, fire behaviour index, fire danger index, fire management, forecast system, McArthur, suppression difficulty.

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