Associations between Australian climate drivers and extreme weekly fire danger

Rachel Taylor; Andrew G. Marshall; Steven Crimp; Geoffrey J. Cary; Sarah Harris; Samuel Sauvage

doi:10.1071/WF23060

RESEARCH ARTICLE (Open Access)

Associations between Australian climate drivers and extreme weekly fire danger

Rachel Taylor ^A ^* , Andrew G. Marshall ^B ^C , Steven Crimp ^A ^D , Geoffrey J. Cary ^A , Sarah Harris ^E and Samuel Sauvage ^B

+ Author Affiliations

- Author Affiliations

^A Fenner School of Environment & Society, B141 Linnaeus Way, Acton, Canberra 2601, Australia.

^B Bureau of Meteorology, 111 Macquarie Street, Hobart, Tas. 7000, Australia.

^C Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Qld 4350, Australia.

^D Institute of Climate, Energy and Disaster Solutions, Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, B141 Linnaeus Way, Acton, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.

^E Fire Risk, Research and Community Preparedness, Country Fire Authority, 8 Lakeside Drive, Burwood East, Vic. 3151, Australia.

^* Correspondence to: Rachel.Taylor@anu.edu.au

International Journal of Wildland Fire 33, WF23060 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF23060

Submitted: 2 May 2023 Accepted: 2 November 2023 Published: 13 December 2023

© 2024 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of IAWF. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND)

Abstract

Aims

We investigate the associations between major Australian climate drivers and extreme weekly fire danger throughout the year.

Methods

We use a composite-based approach, relating the probability of top-decile observed potential fire intensity to the positive and negative modes of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, Madden–Julian Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode, split-flow blocking and Subtropical Ridge Tasman Highs, both concurrently and at a variety of lag times.

Key results

The chance of extreme fire danger increases over broad regions of the continent in response to El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, the negative mode of the Southern Annular Mode, split-flow Blocking Index and Subtropical Ridge Tasman High, and Madden–Julian Oscillation phases 5, 6, 2 and 8 in Austral summer, autumn, winter and spring respectively. These relationships exist not only concurrently, but also when a climate event occurs up to 6 months ahead of the season of interest.

Conclusions

These findings highlight the importance of considering the influence of diverse climate drivers, at a range of temporal lag periods, in understanding and predicting extreme fire danger.

Implications

The results of this study may aid in the development of effective fire management strategies and decision-making processes to mitigate the impacts of fire events in Australia.

Keywords: Australian Fire Danger Rating System, blocking highs, climate drivers, El Niño Southern Oscillation, fire intensity, fire risk, Indian Ocean Dipole, Madden–Julian Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode.

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