Factors that affect the timing of the dispatch of initial attack resources to forest fires in northeastern Ontario, Canada
Ambika Paudel A C , David L. Martell A and Douglas G. Woolford B
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Faculty of Forestry, University of Toronto, 33 Willcocks Street, Toronto, ON, M5S 3B3, Canada.
B Department of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, University of Western Ontario, WSC262-1151 Richmond Street, London, ON, N6A 5B7, Canada.
C Corresponding author. Email: ambikapaudel@cmail.carleton.ca
International Journal of Wildland Fire 28(1) 15-24 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18058
Submitted: 22 April 2018 Accepted: 29 October 2018 Published: 18 December 2018
Abstract
The success of forest fire initial attack systems is believed to be affected by many factors including the initial attack response time. Despite the fact that fire managers typically strive to dispatch initial attack resources to most fires soon after they are reported in order to minimise their response time, they may not always be able to do so as the timing of the initial attack dispatch can be influenced by many factors. We examine the effects of the following factors on the initial attack dispatch process: the daily fire load (the number of fires reported each day), the time of day the fire was reported, fire weather conditions, fire cause and the month of the fire season, on the probability that initial attack resources are dispatched on the day that a fire is reported. Logistic regression methods are used to analyse a dataset composed of 4532 forest fires that were reported in our study area in a portion of northeastern region of Ontario, Canada, during 1963–2012 fire seasons. Our results indicate that the time of day a fire is reported, the total number of fires reported on that day and the Initial Spread Index are key factors that influence the timing of the initial attack response in our study area.
Additional keywords: fire weather, getaway time interval, hockey stick model, piecewise linear, response time, wildfire, wildland fire.
References
Arienti MC, Cumming SG, Boutin S (2006) Empirical models of forest fire initial attack success probabilities: the effects of fuels, anthropogenic linear features, fire weather, and management. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 36, 3155–3166.| Empirical models of forest fire initial attack success probabilities: the effects of fuels, anthropogenic linear features, fire weather, and management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Beverly JL (2017) Time since prior wildfire affects subsequent fire containment in black spruce. International Journal of Wildland Fire 26, 919–929.
| Time since prior wildfire affects subsequent fire containment in black spruce.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Binder H, Sauerbrei W, Royston P (2013) Comparison between splines and fractional polynomials for multivariable model building with continuous covariates: a simulation study with continuous response. Statistics in Medicine 32, 2262–2277.
| Comparison between splines and fractional polynomials for multivariable model building with continuous covariates: a simulation study with continuous response.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (2003) The 2003 Glossary of Forest Fire Management Terms. Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre, Winnipeg, MB, Canada.
Castillo ME, Silva FR (2015) Determining response times for the deployment of terrestrial resources for fighting forest fires, a case study: Mediterranean – Chile. Ciencia e Investigación Agraria 42, 97–107.
| Determining response times for the deployment of terrestrial resources for fighting forest fires, a case study: Mediterranean – Chile.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Cavard X, Boucher JF, Bergeron Y (2015) Vegetation and topography interact with weather to drive the spatial distribution of wildfires in the eastern boreal forest of Canada. International Journal of Wildland Fire 24, 391–406.
| Vegetation and topography interact with weather to drive the spatial distribution of wildfires in the eastern boreal forest of Canada.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Clark NA (2012) Modelling forest fire initial attack airtanker operations. M.Sc.F. thesis, Faculty of Forestry, University of Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Collins KM, Price OF, Penman TD (2015) Spatial patterns of wildfire ignitions in south-eastern Australia. International Journal of Wildland Fire 24, 1098–1108.
| Spatial patterns of wildfire ignitions in south-eastern Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
de Groot WJ, Flannigan MD, Cantin AS (2013) Climate change impacts on future boreal fire regimes. Forest Ecology and Management 294, 35–44.
| Climate change impacts on future boreal fire regimes.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Faraway JJ (2016) ‘Extending the Linear Model with R: Generalized Linear, Mixed Effects and Nonparametric Regression Models’, 2nd edn. (CRC Press: Boca Raton, FL, USA)
Flannigan MD, Wotton BM, Ziga S (1998) A study on the interpolation of fire danger using radar precipitation estimates. International Journal of Wildland Fire 8, 217–225.
| A study on the interpolation of fire danger using radar precipitation estimates.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Flannigan MD, Logan KA, Amiro BD, Skinner WR, Stocks BJ (2005) Future area burned in Canada. Climatic Change 72, 1–16.
| Future area burned in Canada.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Haight RG, Fried JS (2007) Deploying wildland fire suppression resources with a scenario-based standard response model. INFOR 45, 31–39.
| Deploying wildland fire suppression resources with a scenario-based standard response model.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Hosmer DW, Lemeshow JS, Sturdivant RX (Eds) (2013) ‘Applied Logistic Regression.’ (Wiley)
Islam K, Martell DL (1998) Performance of initial attack airtanker systems with interacting bases and variable initial attack ranges. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 28, 1448–1455.
| Performance of initial attack airtanker systems with interacting bases and variable initial attack ranges.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Islam K, Martell DL, Posner M (2009) A time-dependent spatial queueing model for the daily deployment of airtankers for forest fire control. INFOR: Information Systems and Operational Research 47, 319–333.
| A time-dependent spatial queueing model for the daily deployment of airtankers for forest fire control.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Lee Y, Fried JS, Albers HJ, Haight RG (2013) Deploying initial attack resources for wildfire suppression: spatial coordination, budget constraints, and capacity constraints. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 43, 56–65.
| Deploying initial attack resources for wildfire suppression: spatial coordination, budget constraints, and capacity constraints.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Martell DL (1982) A review of operational research studies in forest fire management. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 12, 119–140.
| A review of operational research studies in forest fire management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Martell DL (1999) A Markov chain model of day to day changes in the Canadian forest fire weather index. International Journal of Wildland Fire 9, 265–273.
| A Markov chain model of day to day changes in the Canadian forest fire weather index.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Martell DL (2001) Forest fire management. In ‘Forest Fires: Behavior and Ecological Effects’. (Eds EA Johnson, K Miyanishi) pp. 527–583. (Academic Press: San Diego, CA, USA)
Martell DL (2007) Forest fire management: current practices and new challenges for operational researchers. In ‘Handbook of Operations Research in Natural Resources’. (Eds A Weintraub, C Romero, T Bjørndal, R Epstein) pp. 489–509. (Springer Science/Business Media Publishing: New York, NY, USA)
Martell DL, Drysdale R, Doan G, Boychuk D (1984) An evaluation of forest fire initial attack resources. Interfaces 14, 20–32.
| An evaluation of forest fire initial attack resources.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Minas JP, Hearne JW, Handmer JW (2012) A review of operations research methods applicable to wildfire management. International Journal of Wildland Fire 21, 189–196.
| A review of operations research methods applicable to wildfire management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Ntaimo L, Arrubla JAG, Stripling C, Young J, Spencer T (2012) A stochastic programming standard response model for wildfire initial attack planning. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 42, 987–1001.
| A stochastic programming standard response model for wildfire initial attack planning.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Ntaimo L, Arrubla JAG, Gang J, Stripling C, Young J, Spencer T (2013) A simulation and stochastic integer programming approach to wildfire initial attack planning. Forest Science 59, 105–117.
| A simulation and stochastic integer programming approach to wildfire initial attack planning.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (1989) Fire information report and cost report coding manual. Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources. (Sault Sainte Marie, ON, Canada)
Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (2004) ‘Forest Fire Management Strategy for Ontario. Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources. (Queen’s Printer for Ontario: Toronto, ON, Canada)
Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (2014) Wildland Fire Management Strategy for Ontario. Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, Queen’s Printer for Ontario, AFFES Number: P00464. (Toronto, ON, Canada)
Paudel A (2014) Characterizing the forest fire initial attack system in northeastern Ontario, Canada. MScF thesis, Faculty of Forestry, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Plucinski MP (2012) Factors affecting containment area and time of Australian forest fires featuring aerial suppression. Forest Science 58, 390–398.
| Factors affecting containment area and time of Australian forest fires featuring aerial suppression.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Price OF, Bradstock R (2011) The influence of weather and fuel management on the annual extent of unplanned fires in the Sydney region of Australia. International Journal of Wildland Fire 20, 142–151.
| The influence of weather and fuel management on the annual extent of unplanned fires in the Sydney region of Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Price OF, Borah R, Bradstock RA, Penman TD (2015) An empirical wildfire risk analysis: the probability of a fire spreading to the urban interface in Sydney, Australia. International Journal of Wildland Fire 24, 597–606.
| An empirical wildfire risk analysis: the probability of a fire spreading to the urban interface in Sydney, Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Sauerbrei W, Meier-Hirmerb C, Bennerc A, Roystond P (2006) Multivariable regression model building by using fractional polynomials: description of SAS, STATA and R programs. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis 50, 3464–3485.
| Multivariable regression model building by using fractional polynomials: description of SAS, STATA and R programs.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Stocks BJ, Mason JA, Todd JB, Bosch EM, Wotton BM, Amiro BD, Flannigan MD, Hirsch KG, Logan KA, Martell DL, Skinner WR (2003) Large forest fires in Canada 1959–1997. Journal of Geophysical Research 108, 5–12.
Storey M, Price OF, Tasker E (2016) The role of weather, past fire and topography in crown fire occurrence in eastern Australia. International Journal of Wildland Fire 25, 1048–1060.
| The role of weather, past fire and topography in crown fire occurrence in eastern Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Syphard AD, Keeley JE (2015) Location, timing and extent of wildfire vary by cause of ignition. International Journal of Wildland Fire 24, 37–47.
| Location, timing and extent of wildfire vary by cause of ignition.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Van Wagner CE (1987) The Development and Structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. Canadian Forest Service, Petawawa National Forestry Institute, Forestry Technical report FTR-35. (Chalk River, ON, Canada)
Wei Y, Belval E, Bevers M (2015) Designing seasonal initial attack resource deployment and dispatch rules using a two-stage stochastic programming procedure. Forest Science 61, 1021–1032.
| Designing seasonal initial attack resource deployment and dispatch rules using a two-stage stochastic programming procedure.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Wood SN (2017) ‘Generalized Additive Models: an Introduction with R’. (CRC Press: Boca Raton, FL, USA)
Wotton BM (2009) Interpreting and using outputs from the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System in research applications. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 16, 107–131.
| Interpreting and using outputs from the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System in research applications.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Wotton BM, Martell DM (2005) A lightning fire occurrence model for Ontario. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 35, 1389–1401.
| A lightning fire occurrence model for Ontario.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
