Sources and implications of bias and uncertainty in a century of US wildfire activity data
Karen C. Short
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Forestry Sciences Laboratory, 800 East Beckwith Avenue, Missoula, MT 59801, USA. Email: kcshort@fs.fed.us
International Journal of Wildland Fire 24(7) 883-891 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF14190
Submitted: 17 October 2014 Accepted: 30 April 2015 Published: 2 July 2015
Abstract
Analyses to identify and relate trends in wildfire activity to factors such as climate, population, land use or land cover and wildland fire policy are increasingly popular in the United States. There is a wealth of US wildfire activity data available for such analyses, but users must be aware of inherent reporting biases, inconsistencies and uncertainty in the data in order to maximise the integrity and utility of their work. Data for analysis are generally acquired from archival summary reports of the federal or interagency fire organisations; incident-level wildfire reporting systems of the federal, state and local fire services; and, increasingly, remote-sensing programs. This paper provides an overview of each of these sources and the major reporting biases, inconsistencies and uncertainty within them. Use of national fire reporting systems by state and local fire organisations has been rising in recent decades, providing an improved set of incident-level (documentary) data for all-lands analyses of wildfire activity. A recent effort to compile geospatial documentary fire records for the USA for 1992–2013 has been completed. The resulting dataset has been evaluated for completeness using archival summary reports and includes a linkage to a widely used, remotely sensed wildfire perimeter dataset.
Additional keywords: fire occurrence, reporting.
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