Research and development supporting risk-based wildfire effects prediction for fuels and fire management: status and needs
Kevin Hyde A I , Matthew B. Dickinson B , Gil Bohrer C , David Calkin D , Louisa Evers E , Julie Gilbertson-Day D , Tessa Nicolet F , Kevin Ryan G and Christina Tague H
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Collins Consulting, 911 W. Pedregosa Street, Santa Barbara, CA 93101, USA.
B USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Forestry Sciences Laboratory, 359 Main Road, Delaware, OH 43015, USA.
C The Ohio State University, Department of Civil, Environmental and Geodetic Engineering, 417E Hitchcock Hall, 2070 Neil Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210, USA.
D Forestry Sciences Laboratory, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 200 Broadway, Missoula, MT 59807, USA.
E Bureau of Land Management, Oregon State Office, 333 SW First Avenue, Portland, OR 97204, USA.
F USDA Forest Service, Region 3 Regional Office, 333 Broadway SE, Albuquerque, NM 87102, USA.
G USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fire Sciences Laboratory, 5775 W US Highway 10, Missoula, MT 59808, USA.
H University of California – Santa Barbara, Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, 2400 Bren Hall, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA.
I Corresponding author. Email: kgeogmt@msn.com
International Journal of Wildland Fire 22(1) 37-50 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF11143
Submitted: 23 September 2011 Accepted: 1 August 2012 Published: 30 October 2012
Abstract
Wildland fire management has moved beyond a singular focus on suppression, calling for wildfire management for ecological benefit where no critical human assets are at risk. Processes causing direct effects and indirect, long-term ecosystem changes are complex and multidimensional. Robust risk-assessment tools are required that account for highly variable effects on multiple values-at-risk and balance competing objectives, to support decision making. Providing wildland fire managers with risk-analysis tools requires a broad scientific foundation in fire behaviour and effects prediction as well as high quality computer-based tools and associated databases. We outline a wildfire risk-assessment approach, highlight recent developments in fire effects science and associated research needs, and recommend developing a comprehensive plan for integrated advances in wildfire occurrence, behaviour and effects research leading to improved decision support tools for wildland fire managers. We find that the current state of development in fire behaviour and effects science imposes severe limits on the development of risk-assessment technology. In turn, the development of technology has been largely disconnected from the research enterprise, resulting in a confusing array of ad hoc tools that only partially meet decision-support needs for fuel and fire management. We make the case for defining a common risk-based analytic framework for fire-effects assessment across the range of fire-management activities and developing a research function to support the framework.
Additional keywords: decision support, integrated assessment, spatial scale, temporal scale.
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