An evaluation of spatial and temporal patterns of lightning- and human-caused forest fires in Alberta, Canada, 1980–2007
Yonghe Wang A B and Kerry R. Anderson A
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, 5320 122nd Street, Edmonton, AB, T6H 3S5, Canada.
B Corresponding author. Email: ywang@nrcan.gc.ca
International Journal of Wildland Fire 19(8) 1059-1072 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF09085
Submitted: 5 August 2009 Accepted: 8 July 2010 Published: 10 December 2010
Abstract
We used the K-function and kernel estimation methods to evaluate the spatial and temporal patterns of ignition locations of lightning- and human-caused forest fires in Alberta, Canada. Although both of these fire types have spatial patterns of cluster distribution, quantitative measures for evaluating the patterns in the province are lacking. Our results revealed annual differences in the spatial patterns between the two fire types, whereby fires caused by humans tended to be more clustered and had more complex spatial patterns than those caused by lightning. Spatial interactions of cluster and inhibition existed between the two fire types. Human-caused fires in the period 2003–07 were highly concentrated in the southern parts of the province, indicating the existence of an interaction between space and time. Kernel analysis confirmed the observation that in northern Alberta, lightning-caused fires were more likely to occur than human-caused fires; the opposite was true in southern Alberta. This study provided useful spatial information that is not obvious or cannot be inferred from visual examination of raw data. Such quantitative knowledge could lead to the development of fire-response and fire-suppression strategies appropriate to specific regions within the province.
Additional keywords: Alberta Wildfire Management Areas, K-function, kernel estimation, spatial intensity, spatial point patterns.
References
Alberta Sustainable Resources Development (2008) Wildfire management in Alberta. Publication no. 1/857. (Government of Alberta, Edmonton, AB)Anderson KR (2002) A model to predict lightning-caused fire occurrences. International Journal of Wildland Fire 11, 163–172.
| A model to predict lightning-caused fire occurrences.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Anderson KR, Martell DL, Flannigan MD, Wang D (2000) Modeling of fire occurrence in the boreal forest region of Canada. In ‘Fire, Climate Change and Carbon Cycling in the Boreal Forest’. (Eds ES Kasischke, BJ Stocks) pp. 357–367. (Springer-Verlag: New York)
Berman M, Diggle PJ (1989) Estimating weighted integrals of the second-order intensity of a spatial point process. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B Statistical Methodology 51, 81–92..
Boer GJ, Flato G, Ramsden D (2000) A transient climate changes simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: projected climate to the twenty-first century. Climate Dynamics 16, 427–450.
| A transient climate changes simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: projected climate to the twenty-first century.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Cressie NAC (1993) ‘Statistics for Spatial Data.’ (Wiley: Toronto, ON)
Cunningham AA, Martell DL (1973) A stochastic model for the occurrence of man-caused forest fires. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 3, 282–287.
| A stochastic model for the occurrence of man-caused forest fires.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Díaz-Avalos C, Peterson DL, Alvarado E, Ferguson SA, Besag JE (2001) Space-time modelling of lightning-caused ignitions in the Blue Mountains, Oregon. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 31, 1579–1593.
| Space-time modelling of lightning-caused ignitions in the Blue Mountains, Oregon.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Díaz-Delgado R, Pons X (2001) Spatial patterns of forest fires in Catalonia (NE Spain) along the period 1975–1995: analysis of vegetation recovery after fire. Forest Ecology and Management 147, 67–74.
| Spatial patterns of forest fires in Catalonia (NE Spain) along the period 1975–1995: analysis of vegetation recovery after fire.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Diggle PJ (1983) ‘Statistical Analysis of Spatial Point Patterns.’ (Academic Press: London)
Diggle PJ (1985) A kernel method for smoothing point process data. Applied Statistics 34, 138–147.
| A kernel method for smoothing point process data.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Efron B, Tibshirani RJ (1993) ‘An Introduction to the Bootstrap.’ (Chapman & Hall/CRC: London)
Flannigan MD, Wotton BM (1991) Lightning-ignited forest fires in north-western Ontario. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 21, 277–287.
| Lightning-ignited forest fires in north-western Ontario.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Flannigan MD, Stock BJ, Wotton BM (2000) Climate change and forest fires. The Science of the Total Environment 262, 221–229.
| Climate change and forest fires.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD3cXotleru78%3D&md5=2356af486aaf4ff13bdd5aee78155d22CAS | 11087028PubMed |
Fortin M-J, Dale MRT (2005) ‘Spatial Analysis: a Guide for Ecologists.’ (Cambridge University Press: New York)
Gatrell AC, Bailey TC, Diggle PJ, Rowlingson BS (1996) Spatial point pattern analysis and its application in geographical epidemiology. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers 21, 256–274.
| Spatial point pattern analysis and its application in geographical epidemiology.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Granström A (1993) Spatial and temporal variation in lightning ignitions in Sweden. Journal of Vegetation Science 4, 737–744.
| Spatial and temporal variation in lightning ignitions in Sweden.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Guyette RP, Muzika RM, Dey DC (2002) Dynamics of an anthropogenic fire regime. Ecosystems 5, 472–486..
Kasischke ES, Williams D, Barry D (2002) Analysis of the patterns of large fires in the boreal forest region in Alaska. International Journal of Wildland Fire 11, 131–144.
| Analysis of the patterns of large fires in the boreal forest region in Alaska.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Krawchuk MA, Cumming SG, Flannigan MD, Wein RW (2006) Biotic and abiotic regulation of lightning fire initiation in the mixedwood boreal forest. Ecology 87, 458–468.
| Biotic and abiotic regulation of lightning fire initiation in the mixedwood boreal forest.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:STN:280:DC%2BD283jtVWrtA%3D%3D&md5=0a903c3a6f82752c4b60a833fbeaf504CAS | 16637370PubMed |
Larjavaara M, Kuuluvainen T, Rita H (2005a) Spatial distribution of lightning-ignited forest fires in Finland. Forest Ecology and Management 208, 177–188.
| Spatial distribution of lightning-ignited forest fires in Finland.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Larjavaara M, Pennanen J, Tuomi TJ (2005b) Lightning that ignites forest fires in Finland. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 132, 171–180.
| Lightning that ignites forest fires in Finland.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Lotwick HW, Silverman BW (1982) Methods for analyzing spatial processes of several types of points. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B. Statistical Methodology 44, 406–413..
Mathsoft (1996) ‘S+SPATIALSTATS User’s Manual, Version 1.0.’ (Mathsoft, Inc.: Seattle, WA)
Mermoz M, Kitzberger T, Veblen TT (2005) Landscape influences on occurrence and spread of wildfires in Patagonian forests and shrublands. Ecology 86, 2705–2715.
| Landscape influences on occurrence and spread of wildfires in Patagonian forests and shrublands.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Podur J, Martell DL, Csillag F (2003) Spatial patterns of lightning-caused forest fires in Ontario, 1976–1998. Ecological Modelling 164, 1–20.
| Spatial patterns of lightning-caused forest fires in Ontario, 1976–1998.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Price C, Rind D (1994) The impact of a 2 × CO2 climate on lightning-caused fires. Journal of Climate 7, 1484–1494.
| The impact of a 2 × CO2 climate on lightning-caused fires.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Reap RM (1991) Climatological characteristics and objective prediction of thunderstorms in Alaska. Weather and Forecasting 6, 309–319.
| Climatological characteristics and objective prediction of thunderstorms in Alaska.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Ripley BD (1976) The second-order analysis of stationary point processes. Journal of Applied Probability 13, 255–266.
| The second-order analysis of stationary point processes.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Ripley BD (1981) ‘Spatial Processes.’ (John Wiley and Sons: New York)
Ripley BD (1988) ‘Statistical Inference for Spatial Processes.’ (Cambridge University Press: London)
Rowlingson BS, Diggle PJ (1993) SPLANCS: spatial point pattern analysis code in S-Plus. Computers & Geosciences 19, 627–655.
| SPLANCS: spatial point pattern analysis code in S-Plus.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Ryan KC (2002) Dynamic interactions between forest structure and fire behaviour in boreal ecosystems. Silva Fennica 36, 13–39..
Schneider RR, Stelfox JB, Boutin S, Wasel S (2003) Managing the cumulative impacts of land uses in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin: a modeling approach. Ecology and Society 7(1), 8. Available at http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol7/iss1/art8/ [Verified 10 November 2010]
Stocks BJ, Fosberg MA, Lynham TJ, Mearns L, Wotton BM, Yang Q, Jin J-Z, Lawrence K, Hartley GR, Mason JA, McKenney DW (1998) Climate change and forest fire potential in Russian and Canadian boreal forests. Climatic Change 38, 1–13.
| Climate change and forest fire potential in Russian and Canadian boreal forests.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Stocks BJ, Mason JA, Todd JB, Bosch EM, Wotton BM, Amiro BD, Flannigan MD, Hirsch KG, Logan KA, Martell DL, Skinner WR (2003) Large forest fires in Canada, 1959–1997. Journal of Geophysical Research 108, 8149
| Large forest fires in Canada, 1959–1997.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Turner MG, Romme WH (1994) Landscape dynamics in crown fire ecosystems. Landscape Ecology 9, 59–77.
| Landscape dynamics in crown fire ecosystems.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Tymstra C, Wang D, Rogeau M-P (2005) Alberta wildfire regime analysis. Wildfire Science and Technology Report PFFC-01–05. (Alberta Department of Sustainable Resources Development: Edmonton, AB)
van Lieshout MNM (2000) ‘Markov Point Processes and their Applications.’ (Imperial College Press: London)
Vázquez A, Moreno JM (1998) Patterns of lightning- and people-caused fires in peninsular Spain. International Journal of Wildland Fire 8, 103–115.
| Patterns of lightning- and people-caused fires in peninsular Spain.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Vázquez A, Moreno JM (2001) Spatial distribution of forest fires in Serra de Gredos (central Spain). Forest Ecology and Management 147, 55–65.
| Spatial distribution of forest fires in Serra de Gredos (central Spain).Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Venables WN, Ripley BD (2002) ‘Modern Applied Statistics with S.’ (Springer: New York)
Weber MG, Stocks BJ (1998) Forest fires and sustainability in the boreal forests of Canada. Ambio 27, 545–550..
Wierzchowski J, Heathcott M, Flannigan MD (2002) Lightning and lightning fire, central cordillera, Canada. International Journal of Wildland Fire 11, 41–51.
| Lightning and lightning fire, central cordillera, Canada.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Wiken EB, Gauthier D, Marshall I, Lawton K, Hirvonen H (1996) A perspective on Canada’s ecosystems: an overview of the terrestrial and marine ecozones. Occasional Paper no. 14. (Canadian Council on Ecological Areas: Ottawa, ON)
Wotton BM, Martell DL (2005) A lightning-fire occurrence model for Ontario. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 35, 1389–1401.
| A lightning-fire occurrence model for Ontario.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Wotton BM, Martell DL, Logan KA (2003) Climate change and human-caused forest fire occurrence in Ontario. Climatic Change 60, 275–295.
| Climate change and human-caused forest fire occurrence in Ontario.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD3sXnvVOrs78%3D&md5=fe4ac908b46f304b9bd57f8dff481243CAS |
Yang J (2005) Spatially explicit and stochastic forest landscape model of fire disturbance and succession. PhD dissertation, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO.
Yang J, He HS, Shifley SR, Gustafson EJ (2007) Spatial patterns of modern period human-caused fire occurrence in the Missouri Ozark Highlands. Forest Science 53, 1–15..
