Potentially limited detectability of short-term changes in boreal fire regimes: a simulation study
Juha M. Metsaranta
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre, 506 West Burnside Road, Victoria, BC, V8Z 1M5, Canada.
B Present address: Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, 5320 122 Street, Edmonton, AB, T6H 3S5, Canada. Email: jmetsara@nrcan.gc.ca
International Journal of Wildland Fire 19(8) 1140-1146 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF10037
Submitted: 30 March 2010 Accepted: 13 August 2010 Published: 10 December 2010
Abstract
Climate change is expected to increase area burned in the boreal plains ecozone of Canada in the early 21st century (2001–50). I examined the influence of inter-annual variability in area burned and short observed time series on the probability of detecting if an increase has occurred, using a null model of present and future fire regimes. A wide range of fire cycles are consistent with annual area burned in the late 20th century (1959–99). Fire cycles estimated from the reciprocal of the average annual burn fraction over a 50-year period are not very precise, and overestimate the fire cycle if years with large annual area burned have not recently occurred. Under the default assumptions, the probability of detecting a doubling of annual area burned during 2001–50 is 73% if it occurred instantaneously, but only 31% if it occurred gradually. Imprecise estimates and uncertainty in the ability to detect changes in fire cycles poses challenges for implementing aspects of sustainable forest management. Alternate empirical or model-based statistics, such as return periods for annual areas burned of a given magnitude, may be useful for inferring frequencies and magnitudes of large fire years that have not yet been observed.
Additional keywords: climate change, extreme fire, log normal model, natural disturbance emulation, return period.
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