Prediction of Areas Prone to Lightning Ignition

Abstract

A method for handling lightning-caused ignitions as part of a comprehensive fire hazard assessment procedure is presented. The locations at which lightning ignitions tend to occur have always been difficult to predict, and do not correlate with usual environmental factors. The model described here uses geographic information system techniques to remove large-scale trends in elevation. The meso-scale residual can be used to predict sites that are prone to lightning ignitions. The model is compared to historic records of lightning ignitions for the ACT, and is found to work very well. A range of other uses for the technique in fire management are discussed.