Medium-range fire weather forecasts

Abstract

The forecast skill of theNational Meteorological Center's medium range forecast (MRF) numerical forecasts of fire weather variables is assessed for the period June 1,1988 to May 31,1990. Near-surface virtual temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and a derived fire weather index (FWI) are forecast well by the MRF model. However, forecast relative humidity has a wet bias during the winter and a slight dry bias during the summer, which has noticeable impact on forecasts of the derived fire weather index. The FWI forecasts are also strongly affected by near-surface wind forecast errors. Still, skillful forecasts of the fire weather index as well as the other relevant fire weather variables are made out to about 10 days. These forecasts could be utilized more extensively by fire weather forecasters.