Is Arson Associated with Severe Fire Weather in Southern California?

Abstract

Under severe fire weather conditions arson is believed to be the primary cause of large wildland fires in southern California. Wildland fire suppression personnel and the public use the the expression "This weather brings out the arsonists" to indicate their awareness of the high potential for large arson-caused fires under these conditions. To determine the accuracy of this statement, fire occurrence and weather data were analyzed for four southern California National Forests for a 10-year period (1975–1984). The results showed that the proportion of arson and non-arson person-caused fires remained the same under most fire-danger conditions; however, a much higher percentage of arson fires became large fires when fire danger was severe. Furthermore, the timing of the arsonist contributed to the frequent occurrence of large arson fires.

The data presented here refute the idea that most arson fires occur under severe weather conditions and at the same time-validate the utility of maintaining arson prevention programs during most weather conditions.