Incorporating burn heterogeneity with fuel load estimates may improve fire behaviour predictions in south-east Australian eucalypt forest

Rachael H. Nolan; Rebecca K. Gibson; Brett Cirulis; Brendan Holyland; Stephanie A. Samson; Meaghan Jenkins; Trent Penman; Matthias M. Boer

doi:10.1071/WF22179

RESEARCH ARTICLE (Open Access)

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Incorporating burn heterogeneity with fuel load estimates may improve fire behaviour predictions in south-east Australian eucalypt forest

Rachael H. Nolan

^A ^B ^* , Rebecca K. Gibson ^C , Brett Cirulis ^D , Brendan Holyland ^D , Stephanie A. Samson ^B ^E ^F , Meaghan Jenkins ^G , Trent Penman

^D and Matthias M. Boer ^A ^B

+ Author Affiliations

- Author Affiliations

^A Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW 2751, Australia.

^B NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub, Wollongong, NSW, Australia.

^C Science, Economics and Insights Division, Department of Planning and Environment, Alstonville, NSW, Australia.

^D Flare Wildfire Research, School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Vic. 3363, Australia.

^E Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia.

^F Biodiversity and Conservation Science, Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Manjimup, WA, Australia.

^G NSW Rural Fire Service, Sydney Olympic Park, NSW 2127, Australia.

^* Correspondence to: rachael.nolan@westernsydney.edu.au

International Journal of Wildland Fire 33, WF22179 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF22179

Submitted: 10 August 2022 Accepted: 27 February 2024 Published: 15 March 2024

© 2024 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of IAWF. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND)

Abstract

Background

Simulations of fire spread are vital for operational fire management and strategic risk planning.

Aims

To quantify burn heterogeneity effects on post-fire fuel loads, and test whether modifying fuel load estimates based on the fire severity and patchiness of the last fire improves the accuracy of simulations of subsequent fires.

Methods

We (1) measured fine fuels in eucalypt forests in south-eastern Australia following fires of differing severity; (2) modified post-fire fuel accumulation estimates based on our results; and (3) ran different fire simulations for a case-study area which was subject to a planned hazard reduction burn followed by a wildfire shortly thereafter.

Key results

Increasing fire severity resulted in increased reduction in bark fuels. In contrast, surface and elevated fuels were reduced by similar amounts following both low-moderate and high-extreme fire severity. Accounting for burn heterogeneity, and fire severity effects on bark, improved the accuracy of fire spread for a case study fire.

Conclusions

Integration of burn heterogeneity into post-burn fuel load estimates may substantially improve fire behaviour predictions.

Implications

Without accounting for burn heterogeneity, patchy burns of low severity may mean that risk estimations are incorrect. This has implications for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of planned burn programmes.

Keywords: burn severity, Eucalyptus, fire behaviour, fire history, fire management, modelling, prescribed burn, trees.

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