Spatial correlates of forest and land fires in Indonesia
Z. D. Tan A C , L. R. Carrasco B and D. Taylor AA Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, 1 Arts Link, Kent Ridge, Singapore 117570.
B Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, 16 Science Drive 4, Singapore 117558.
C Corresponding author: tzdienle@u.nus.edu
International Journal of Wildland Fire 29(12) 1088-1099 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF20036
Submitted: 18 March 2020 Accepted: 30 August 2020 Published: 29 September 2020
Journal Compilation © IAWF 2020 Open Access CC BY
Abstract
Biomass fires in Indonesia emit high levels of greenhouse gases and particulate matter, key contributors to global climate change and poor air quality in south-east Asia. In order to better understand the drivers of biomass fires across Indonesia over multiple years, we examined the distribution and probability of fires in Sumatra, Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo) and Papua (western New Guinea) over four entire calendar years (2002, 2005, 2011 and 2015). The 4 years of data represent years with El Niño and La Niña conditions and high levels of data availability in the study region. Generalised linear mixed-effects models and zero-inflated negative binomial models were used to relate fire hotspots and a range of spatial predictor data. Geographic differences in occurrences of fire hotspots were evident. Fire probability was greatest in mixed-production agriculture lands and in deeper, degraded peatlands, suggesting anthropogenic activities were strong determinants of burning. Drought conditions in El Niño years were also significant. The results demonstrate the importance of prioritising areas of high fire probability, based on land use and other predisposing conditions, in effective fire management planning.
Keywords: biomass burning, climate change, fire hotspot, haze, south-east Asia.
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