Fire and rain are one: extreme rainfall events predict wildfire extent in an arid grassland
Elise M. Verhoeven A C , Brad R. Murray A , Chris R. Dickman B , Glenda M. Wardle
B and Aaron C. Greenville A B
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A School of Life Sciences, University of Technology Sydney, PO Box 123, NSW 2007, Australia.
B Desert Ecology Research Group, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia.
C Corresponding author. Email: Elise.Verhoeven@student.uts.edu.au
International Journal of Wildland Fire 29(8) 702-711 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF19087
Submitted: 12 June 2019 Accepted: 4 April 2020 Published: 12 May 2020
Abstract
Assessing wildfire regimes and their environmental drivers is critical for effective land management and conservation. We used Landsat imagery to describe the wildfire regime of the north-eastern Simpson Desert (Australia) between 1972 and 2014, and to quantify the relationship between wildfire extent and rainfall. Wildfires occurred in 15 of the 42 years, but only 27% of the study region experienced multiple wildfires. A wildfire in 1975 burned 43% of the region and is the largest on record for the area. More recently, a large wildfire in 2011 reburned areas that had not burned since 1975 (47% of the 2011 wildfire), as well as new areas that had no record of wildfires (25% of the 2011 wildfire). The mean minimum wildfire return interval was 27 years, comparable with other spinifex-dominated grasslands, and the mean time since last wildfire was 21 years. Spinifex-dominated vegetation burned most frequently and over the largest area. Extreme annual rainfall events (> 93rd percentile) effectively predicted large wildfires occurring 2 years after those events. Extreme rainfall is predicted to increase in magnitude and frequency across central Australia, which could alter wildfire regimes and have unpredictable and far-reaching effects on ecosystems in the region’s arid landscapes.
Additional keywords: Australia, fire mapping, Landsat 8, Simpson Desert, wildfire regimes.
References
Allan GE, Southgate RI (2002) Fire regimes in the spinifex landscapes of Australia. In ‘Flammable Australia: the fire regimes and biodiversity of a continent.’ (Eds RA Bradstock, JE Williams, MA Gill) pp. 145–176. (Cambridge University Press: New York)Bartoń K (2018) ‘MuMIn: multi-model inference.’ R Package version 1.42.1. Available at http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=MuMIn [Verified January 2018]
Bird DW, Bird RB, Parker CH (2005) Aboriginal burning regimes and hunting strategies in Australia’s Western Desert. Human Ecology 33, 443–464.
| Aboriginal burning regimes and hunting strategies in Australia’s Western Desert.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Bowman D, Latz P (1993) Ecology of Callitris glaucophylla (Cupressaceae) on the Macdonnell Ranges, Central Australia. Australian Journal of Botany 41, 217–225.
| Ecology of Callitris glaucophylla (Cupressaceae) on the Macdonnell Ranges, Central Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Bowman DM, Balch JK, Artaxo P, Bond WJ, Carlson JM, Cochrane MA, D’Antonio CM, DeFries RS, Doyle JC, Harrison SP (2009) Fire in the Earth system. Science 324, 481–484.
| Fire in the Earth system.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 19390038PubMed |
Bureau of Meteorology (2019a) ‘Climate data online.’ Available at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/ [Accessed 18 Jan 2019].
Bureau of Meteorology (2019b) ‘Southern oscillation index (SOI) since 1876’. Available at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soi2.shtml [Accessed 18 Jan 2019].
Burnham KP, Anderson DR (2002) ‘Model selection and multimodel inference: A practical information-theoretic approach.’ (Springer-Verlag: New York)
Burrows N, Ward B, Robinson A (1991) Fire behaviour in spinifex fuels on the Gibson Desert nature reserve, Western Australia. Journal of Arid Environments 20, 189–204.
| Fire behaviour in spinifex fuels on the Gibson Desert nature reserve, Western Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Burrows N, Gill M, Sharples J (2018) Development and validation of a model for predicting fire behaviour in spinifex grasslands of arid Australia. International Journal of Wildland Fire 27, 271–279.
| Development and validation of a model for predicting fire behaviour in spinifex grasslands of arid Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Butler BDW, Fairfax RJ (2003) Buffel Grass and fire in a gidgee and brigalow woodland: a case study from central Queensland. Ecological Management & Restoration 4, 120–125.
| Buffel Grass and fire in a gidgee and brigalow woodland: a case study from central Queensland.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Cai W, Cowan T (2009) La Niña Modoki impacts Australia autumn rainfall variability. Geophysical Research Letters 36, L12805
| La Niña Modoki impacts Australia autumn rainfall variability.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
D’Antonio CM, Vitousek PM (1992) Biological invasions by exotic grasses, the grass/fire cycle, and global change. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 23, 63–87.
| Biological invasions by exotic grasses, the grass/fire cycle, and global change.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Dickman C, Wardle G, Foulkes J, de Preu N (2014) Desert complex environments. In ‘Biodiversity and environmental change.’ (Eds D Lindenmayer, E Burns, N Thurgate, A Lowe) pp. 379–438. (CSIRO Publishing: Melbourne)
Eldridge DJ, Travers SK, Facelli AF, Facelli JM, Keith DA (2017) The chenepod shrublands. In ‘Australian vegetation’, 3rd edn. (Ed. D Keith) pp. 599–625. (CSIRO Publishing Melbourne).
Enright NJ, Thomas I (2008) Pre‐European fire regimes in Australian ecosystems. Geography Compass 2, 979–1011.
| Pre‐European fire regimes in Australian ecosystems.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
ESRI (2018) ArcGIS Desktop: Release 10.6.1. (Environmental Systems Research Institute: Redlands, CA, USA).
Feng X, Porporato A, Rodriguez-Iturbe I (2013) Changes in rainfall seasonality in the tropics. Nature Climate Change 3, 811
| Changes in rainfall seasonality in the tropics.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Fensham RJ, Fairfax RJ (2005) Preliminary assessment of gidgee (Acacia cambagei) woodland thickening in the Longreach district, Queensland. The Rangeland Journal 27, 159–168.
| Preliminary assessment of gidgee (Acacia cambagei) woodland thickening in the Longreach district, Queensland.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Flannigan MD, Krawchuk MA, de Groot WJ, Wotton BM, Gowman LM (2009) Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18, 483–507.
| Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Flannigan M, Cantin AS, de Groot WJ, Wotton M, Newbery A, Gowman LM (2013) Global wildland fire season severity in the 21st century. Forest Ecology and Management 294, 54–61.
| Global wildland fire season severity in the 21st century.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Folk RL (1971) Longitudinal dunes of the northwestern edge of the Simpson Desert, Northern Territory, Australia, 1. Geomorphology and grain size relationships. Sedimentology 16, 5–54.
| Longitudinal dunes of the northwestern edge of the Simpson Desert, Northern Territory, Australia, 1. Geomorphology and grain size relationships.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Friedel MH, Grice AC, Marshall NA, van Klinken RD (2011) Reducing contention amongst organisations dealing with commercially valuable but invasive plants: the case of buffel grass. Environmental Science & Policy 14, 1205–1218.
| Reducing contention amongst organisations dealing with commercially valuable but invasive plants: the case of buffel grass.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Friedel M, Allan GE, Duguid A (2014) Do we know enough about vegetation dynamics to manage fire regimes in central Australia? Ecological Management & Restoration 15, 128–132.
| Do we know enough about vegetation dynamics to manage fire regimes in central Australia?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Geoscience Australia (2015a) ‘Surface hydrology lines (regional).’ (Geoscience Australia: Canberra)
Geoscience Australia (2015b) ‘Surface hydrology polygons (regional).’ (Geoscience Australia: Canberra)
Gott B (2005) Aboriginal fire management in south‐eastern Australia: aims and frequency. Journal of Biogeography 32, 1203–1208.
| Aboriginal fire management in south‐eastern Australia: aims and frequency.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Gould RA (1971) Uses and effects of fire among the Western Desert Aborigines of Australia. Mankind 8, 14–24.
Greenville AC, Dickman CR, Wardle GM, Letnic M (2009) The fire history of an arid grassland: the influence of antecedent rainfall and ENSO. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18, 631–639.
| The fire history of an arid grassland: the influence of antecedent rainfall and ENSO.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Greenville AC, Wardle GM, Dickman CR (2012) Extreme climatic events drive mammal irruptions: regression analysis of 100-year trends in desert rainfall and temperature. Ecology and Evolution 2, 2645–2658.
| Extreme climatic events drive mammal irruptions: regression analysis of 100-year trends in desert rainfall and temperature.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 23170202PubMed |
Greenville AC, Wardle GM, Dickman CR (2017) Desert mammal populations are limited by introduced predators rather than future climate change. Royal Society Open Science 4, 170384
| Desert mammal populations are limited by introduced predators rather than future climate change.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 29291051PubMed |
Griffin G, Price N, Portlock H (1983) Wildfires in the central Australian rangelands, 1970–1980. Journal of Environmental Management 17, 311–323.
Grueber C, Nakagawa S, Laws R, Jamieson I (2011) Multimodel inference in ecology and evolution: challenges and solutions. Journal of Evolutionary Biology 24, 699–711.
| Multimodel inference in ecology and evolution: challenges and solutions.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 21272107PubMed |
Haydon DT, Friar JK, Pianka ER (2000) Fire-driven dynamic mosaics in the Great Victoria Desert, Australia – II. A spatial and temporal landscape model. Landscape Ecology 15, 407–423.
| Fire-driven dynamic mosaics in the Great Victoria Desert, Australia – II. A spatial and temporal landscape model.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Heatwole H (1970) Thermal ecology of the desert dragon Amphibolurus inermis. Ecological Monographs 40, 425–457.
| Thermal ecology of the desert dragon Amphibolurus inermis.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Hudak AT, Brockett BH (2004) Mapping fire scars in a southern African savannah using Landsat imagery. International Journal of Remote Sensing 25, 3231–3243.
| Mapping fire scars in a southern African savannah using Landsat imagery.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Jolly WM, Cochrane MA, Freeborn PH, Holden ZA, Brown TJ, Williamson GJ, Bowman DM (2015) Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013. Nature Communications 6, 7537
| Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 26172867PubMed |
Kimber R (1983) Black lightning: Aborigines and fire in central Australia and the Western Desert. Archaeology in Oceania 18, 38–45.
| Black lightning: Aborigines and fire in central Australia and the Western Desert.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Kimber RG, Friedel MH (2015) Challenging the concept of Aboriginal mosaic fire practices in the Lake Eyre Basin. The Rangeland Journal 37, 623–630.
| Challenging the concept of Aboriginal mosaic fire practices in the Lake Eyre Basin.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Letnic M, Dickman CR (2006) Boom means bust: interactions between the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), rainfall and the processes threatening mammal species in arid Australia. Biodiversity and Conservation 15, 3847–3880.
| Boom means bust: interactions between the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), rainfall and the processes threatening mammal species in arid Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Levin N, Levental S, Morag H (2012) The effect of wildfires on vegetation cover and dune activity in Australia’s desert dunes: a multisensor analysis. International Journal of Wildland Fire 21, 459–475.
| The effect of wildfires on vegetation cover and dune activity in Australia’s desert dunes: a multisensor analysis.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Mallinis G, Koutsias N (2012) Comparing ten classification methods for burned area mapping in a Mediterranean environment using Landsat TM satellite data. International Journal of Remote Sensing 33, 4408–4433.
| Comparing ten classification methods for burned area mapping in a Mediterranean environment using Landsat TM satellite data.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
McGregor HW, Legge S, Jones ME, Johnson CN (2014) Landscape management of fire and grazing regimes alters the fine-scale habitat utilisation by feral cats. PLoS One 9, e109097
| Landscape management of fire and grazing regimes alters the fine-scale habitat utilisation by feral cats.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 25329902PubMed |
McKeon G, Hall W, Henry B, Stone G, Watson I (2004) ‘Pasture degradation and recovery in Australia’s rangelands: learning from history.’ (Queensland Department of Natural Resources, Mines and Energy: Indooroopilly)
Miller G, Friedel M, Adam P, Chewings V (2010) Ecological impacts of buffel grass (Cenchrus ciliaris L.) invasion in central Australia–does field evidence support a fire-invasion feedback? The Rangeland Journal 32, 353–365.
| Ecological impacts of buffel grass (Cenchrus ciliaris L.) invasion in central Australia–does field evidence support a fire-invasion feedback?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Morgan P, Hardy CC, Swetnam TW, Rollins MG, Long DG (2001) Mapping fire regimes across time and space: understanding coarse and fine-scale fire patterns. International Journal of Wildland Fire 10, 329–342.
| Mapping fire regimes across time and space: understanding coarse and fine-scale fire patterns.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Morton SR, Stafford Smith DM, Dickman CR, Dunkerley DL, Friedel MH, McAllister RRJ, Reid JRW, Roshier DA, Smith MA, Walsh FJ, Wardle GM, Watson IW, Westoby M (2011) A fresh framework for the ecology of arid Australia. Journal of Arid Environments 75, 313–329.
| A fresh framework for the ecology of arid Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Mulvaney DJ, Kamminga J (1999) ‘Prehistory of Australia.’ (Allen & Unwin: Sydney)
Murphy BP, Bradstock RA, Boer MM, Carter J, Cary GJ, Cochrane MA, Fensham RJ, Russell‐Smith J, Williamson GJ, Bowman DMJS (2013) Fire regimes of Australia: a pyrogeographic model system. Journal of Biogeography 40, 1048–1058.
| Fire regimes of Australia: a pyrogeographic model system.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Myers B, Allan G, Bradstock R, Dias L, Duff G, Jacklyn P, Landsberg J, Morrison J, Russell-Smith J, Williams R (2004) ‘Fire management in the rangelands.’ (Tropical Savannas CRC: Darwin)
Nano CE, Clarke PJ, Pavey CR (2012) Fire regimes in arid hummock grasslands and Acacia shrublands. In ‘Flammable Australia: fire regimes, biodiversity and ecosystems in a changing world.’ (Eds RA Bradstock, AM Gill, RJ Williams.) pp. 195–214. (CSIRO Publishing: Melbourne)
Northern Australia Fire Information (2010) ‘Frequently asked questions: data and mapping.’ Available at http://www.firenorth.org.au/nafi3/views/help/faq.pdf [Accessed Aug 2018].
O’Donnell AJ, Boer MM, McCaw WL, Grierson PF (2011) Vegetation and landscape connectivity control wildfire intervals in unmanaged semi-arid shrublands and woodlands in Australia. Journal of Biogeography 38, 112–124.
| Vegetation and landscape connectivity control wildfire intervals in unmanaged semi-arid shrublands and woodlands in Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Oumar Z (2015) Fire scar mapping for disaster response in KwaZulu-Natal South Africa using Landsat 8 imagery. South African Journal of Geomatics 4, 309–316.
| Fire scar mapping for disaster response in KwaZulu-Natal South Africa using Landsat 8 imagery.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Pausas JG, Bradstock RA (2007) Fire persistence traits of plants along a productivity and disturbance gradient in mediterranean shrublands of south‐east Australia. Global Ecology and Biogeography 16, 330–340.
| Fire persistence traits of plants along a productivity and disturbance gradient in mediterranean shrublands of south‐east Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Prober S, Thiele K, Rundel P, Yates CJ, Berry SL, Byrne M, Christidis L, Gosper C, et al. (2012) Facilitating adaptation of biodiversity to climate change: a conceptual framework applied to the world’s largest Mediterranean-climate woodland. Climatic Change 110, 227–248.
| Facilitating adaptation of biodiversity to climate change: a conceptual framework applied to the world’s largest Mediterranean-climate woodland.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Purdie R (1984) ‘Land systems of the Simpson Desert region.’ (CSIRO Division of Water and Land Services: Melbourne).
R Foundation (2017) R: A language and environment for statistical computing. (R Foundation for Statistical Computing: Vienna, Austria).
Rasmusson EM, Wang X, Ropelewski CF (1990) The biennial component of ENSO variability. Journal of Marine Systems 1, 71–96.
| The biennial component of ENSO variability.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Risbey JS, Pook MJ, McIntosh PC, Wheeler MC, Hendon HH (2009) On the remote drivers of rainfall variability in Australia. Monthly Weather Review 137, 3233–3253.
| On the remote drivers of rainfall variability in Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Silcock J, Witt G, Fensham R (2016) A 150-year fire history of mulga (Acacia aneura F. Muell. ex Benth.) dominated vegetation in semiarid Queensland, Australia. The Rangeland Journal 38, 391–415.
| A 150-year fire history of mulga (Acacia aneura F. Muell. ex Benth.) dominated vegetation in semiarid Queensland, Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Storey J, Scaramuzza P, Schmidt G, Barsi, J (2005) Landsat 7 scan line corrector-off gap-filled product development. In ‘Pecora 16’, paper presented at the Pecora 16 Conference, 23–27 October 2005, Sioux Falls, South Dakota.
Turner D, Ostendorf B, Lewis M (2008) An introduction to patterns of fire in arid and semi-arid Australia, 1998–2004. The Rangeland Journal 30, 95–107.
| An introduction to patterns of fire in arid and semi-arid Australia, 1998–2004.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Twidale CR (1972) Evolution of sand dunes in the Simpson Desert, central Australia. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers 56, 77–109.
| Evolution of sand dunes in the Simpson Desert, central Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
van der Werf GR, Randerson JT, Giglio L, Collatz GJ, Kasibhatla PS, Arellano AF (2006) Interannual variability in global biomass burning emissions from 1997 to 2004. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 6, 3423–3441.
| Interannual variability in global biomass burning emissions from 1997 to 2004.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
van Etten EJB (2009) Inter-annual rainfall variability of arid Australia: greater than elsewhere? The Australian Geographer 40, 109–120.
| Inter-annual rainfall variability of arid Australia: greater than elsewhere?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
van Etten E, Burrows N (2018) Fire regimes and ecology of arid Australia. In ‘On the ecology of Australia’s arid zone.’ (Ed. H Lambers.) pp. 243–282. (Springer International Publishing: Basel, Switzerland).
Wardle GM, Nano CEM (2017) Hummock grasslands: Triodia-dominated grasslands in arid Australia. In ‘Australian vegetation’, 3rd edn. (Ed. D Keith) pp. 651–674. (CSIRO Publishing: Melbourne)
Wardle GM, Greenville AC, Frank ASK, Tischler M, Emery NJ, Dickman CR (2015) Ecosystem risk assessment of Georgina gidgee woodlands in central Australia. Austral Ecology 40, 444–459.
| Ecosystem risk assessment of Georgina gidgee woodlands in central Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Whetton P, Moise A, Kirono D, Rafter T, Wilson L, Hennessy K, Bhend J, Hope P, Timbal B, Dowdy A, Watterson I, Grose M, Narsey S, Bathols J (2015) Projections: atmosphere and the land. In ‘Climate change in Australia.’ (Eds P Whetton, M Ekström, C Gerbing, M Grose, J Bhend, L Webb, J Risbey) pp. 91–139. (CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology: Australia).
Yates CP, Edwards AC, Russell-Smith J (2008) Big fires and their ecological impacts in Australian savannas: size and frequency matters. International Journal of Wildland Fire 17, 768–781.
| Big fires and their ecological impacts in Australian savannas: size and frequency matters.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
