Free Standard AU & NZ Shipping For All Book Orders Over $80!
Register      Login
International Journal of Wildland Fire International Journal of Wildland Fire Society
Journal of the International Association of Wildland Fire
RESEARCH ARTICLE

Location, timing and extent of wildfire vary by cause of ignition

Alexandra D. Syphard A D and Jon E. Keeley B C
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

A Conservation Biology Institute, 10423 Sierra Vista Avenue, La Mesa, CA, 91941, USA.

B US Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, Three Rivers, CA, USA.

C Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of California, 612 Charles E. Young Drive, South Los Angeles, CA 90095-7246, USA.

D Corresponding author. Email: asyphard@consbio.org

International Journal of Wildland Fire 24(1) 37-47 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF14024
Submitted: 22 February 2014  Accepted: 16 June 2014   Published: 13 January 2015

Abstract

The increasing extent of wildfires has prompted investigation into alternative fire management approaches to complement the traditional strategies of fire suppression and fuels manipulation. Wildfire prevention through ignition reduction is an approach with potential for success, but ignitions result from a variety of causes. If some ignition sources result in higher levels of area burned, then ignition prevention programmes could be optimised to target these distributions in space and time. We investigated the most common ignition causes in two southern California sub-regions, where humans are responsible for more than 95% of all fires, and asked whether these causes exhibited distinct spatial or intra-annual temporal patterns, or resulted in different extents of fire in 10–29-year periods, depending on sub-region. Different ignition causes had distinct spatial patterns and those that burned the most area tended to occur in autumn months. Both the number of fires and area burned varied according to cause of ignition, but the cause of the most numerous fires was not always the cause of the greatest area burned. In both sub-regions, power line ignitions were one of the top two causes of area burned: the other major causes were arson in one sub-region and power equipment in the other. Equipment use also caused the largest number of fires in both sub-regions. These results have important implications for understanding why, where and how ignitions are caused, and in turn, how to develop strategies to prioritise and focus fire prevention efforts. Fire extent has increased tremendously in southern California, and because most fires are caused by humans, ignition reduction offers a potentially powerful management strategy, especially if optimised to reflect the distinct spatial and temporal distributions in different ignition causes.


References

Bar Massada A, Syphard AD, Stewart SI, Radeloff VC (2013) Wildfire ignition-distribution modelling: a comparative study in the Huron–Manistee National Forest, Michigan, USA. International Journal of Wildland Fire 22, 174–183.
Wildfire ignition-distribution modelling: a comparative study in the Huron–Manistee National Forest, Michigan, USA.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Bowman DMJS, Balch JK, Artaxo P, Bond WJ, Carlson JM, Cochrane MA, D’Antonio CM, DeFries RS, Doyle JC, Harrison SP, Johnston FH, Keeley JE, Krawchuk MA, Kull CA, Marston JB, Moritz MA, Prentice IC, Roos CI, Scott AC, Swetnam TW, van der Werf GR, Pyne SJ (2009) Fire in the earth system. Science 324, 481–484.
Fire in the earth system.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD1MXkvVGmtb8%3D&md5=acf0f16875fe2576863ea8a4f6d043c7CAS |

Butry D (2009) Fighting fire with fire: estimating the efficacy of wildfire mitigation programs using propensity scores. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 16, 291–319.
Fighting fire with fire: estimating the efficacy of wildfire mitigation programs using propensity scores.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Cal Fire (2000) ‘Wildland fire hazard assessment: Final report on FEMA 1005–47.’ California Division of Forestry and Fire Protection: Sacramento, CA.

Cal Fire (2011) Incident information. Available at http://cdfdata.fire.ca.gov/incidents/incidents_statsevents [Verified 12 May 2014]

Cal Fire (2013) Fire perimeters. Available at http://frap.fire.ca.gov/data/frapgisdata-sw-fireperimeters_download.php [Verified 9 December 2013]

Cardille JA, Ventura SJ, Turner MG (2001) Environmental and social factors influencing wildfires in the Upper Midwest, United States. Ecological Applications 11, 111–127.
Environmental and social factors influencing wildfires in the Upper Midwest, United States.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Cary GJ, Flannigan MD, Keane RE, Bradstock RA, Davies ID, Lenihan JM, Li C, Logan KA, Parsons RA (2009) Relative importance of fuel management, ignition management and weather for area burned: evidence from five landscape–fire–succession models. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18, 147–156.
Relative importance of fuel management, ignition management and weather for area burned: evidence from five landscape–fire–succession models.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Catry FX, Rego FC, Bação F, Moreira F (2009) Modeling and mapping wildfire ignition risk in Portugal. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18, 921–931.
Modeling and mapping wildfire ignition risk in Portugal.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Chevan A, Sutherland M (1991) Hierarchical partitioning. The American Statistician 45, 90–96.

Cohen JD (2000) Home ignitability in the wildland–urban interface. Journal of Forestry 98, 15–21.

Cruz MG, Sullivan AL, Gould JS, Sims NC, Bannister AJ, Hollis JJ, Hurley RJ (2012) Anatomy of a catastrophic wildfire: the Black Saturday Kilmore East fire in Victoria, Australia. Forest Ecology and Management 284, 269–285.

Curt T, Ganteaume A, Alleaume S, Borgniet L, Chandioux O, Jappiot M, Lampin C, Martin W (2007) Vegetation flammability and ignition potential at road–forest interfaces (southern France). In ‘4th International Wildland Fire Conference 2007’, May, Sevilla, Spain (CD-ROM). (Ministerio de Medio Ambiente: Madrid, Spain)

Dormann CF, McPherson JM, Araujo MB, Bivand R, Bolliger J, Carl G, Davies RG, Hirzel A, Jetz W, Kissling WD, Kuhn I, Ohlemuller R, Peres-Neto PR, Reineking B, Schroder B, Schurr FM, Wilson R (2007) Methods to account for spatial autocorrelation in the analysis of species distributional data: a review. Ecography 30, 609–628.
Methods to account for spatial autocorrelation in the analysis of species distributional data: a review.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Elith J, Graham CH, Anderson RP, Dudik M, Ferrier S, Guisan A, Hijmans RJ, Huettmann F, Leathwick JR, Lehmann A, Li J, Lohmann LG, Loiselle BA, Manion G, Moritz C, Nakamura M, Nakazawa Y, Overton JM, Peterson AT, Phillips SJ, Richardson K, Scachetti-Pereira R, Schapire RE, Soberon J, Williams S, Wisz MS, Zimmermann NE (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species’ distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 29, 129–151.
Novel methods improve prediction of species’ distributions from occurrence data.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Elith J, Phillips SJ, Hastie T, Dudík M, Chee YE, Yates CJ (2011) A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists. Diversity & Distributions 17, 43–57.
A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Genton MG, Butry DT, Gumpertz ML, Prestemon JP (2006) Spatio–temporal analysis of wildfire ignitions in the St Johns River Water Management District, Florida. International Journal of Wildland Fire 15, 87–97.
Spatio–temporal analysis of wildfire ignitions in the St Johns River Water Management District, Florida.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Gill AM (2005) Landscape fires as social disasters: an overview of the bushfire problem. Environmental Hazards 6, 65–80.
Landscape fires as social disasters: an overview of the bushfire problem.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Gill AM, Stephens SL, Cary GJ (2013) The worldwide ‘wildfire’ problem. Ecological Applications 23, 438–454.
The worldwide ‘wildfire’ problem.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 23634593PubMed |

Gonzalez-Olabarria J, Brotons L, Gritten D, Tudela A, Angel Teres J (2012) Identifying location and causality of fire ignition hotspots in a Mediterranean region. International Journal of Wildland Fire 21, 905–914.
Identifying location and causality of fire ignition hotspots in a Mediterranean region.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Hammer RB, Radeloff VC, Fried JS, Stewart SI (2007) Wildland–urban interface housing growth during the 1990s in California, Oregon, and Washington. International Journal of Wildland Fire 16, 255–265.
Wildland–urban interface housing growth during the 1990s in California, Oregon, and Washington.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Keeley JE (2006) South coast bioregion. In ‘Fire California’s Ecosystems’. (Eds NG Sugihari, JW van Wagtendonk, KE Shaffer, J Fites-Kaufman, AE Thode) pp. 350–390. (University of California Press: Berkeley, CA)

Keeley JE, Fotheringham CJ, Morais M (1999) Reexamining fire suppression impacts on brushland fire regimes. Science 284, 1829–1832.
Reexamining fire suppression impacts on brushland fire regimes.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DyaK1MXjvFSqsL4%3D&md5=93d6deecdf5f8d2ea7b86c3dcc522235CAS | 10364554PubMed |

Keeley JE, Safford HD, Fotheringham CJ, Franklin J, Moritz MA (2009) The 2007 southern California wildfires: lessons in complexity. Journal of Forestry 107, 287–296.

Keeley JE, Bond WJ, Bradstock RA, Pausas JG, Rundel PW (2012) ‘Fire in Mediterranean Ecosystems Ecology, Evolution and Management.’ (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK)

Keeley JE, Syphard AD, Fotheringham CJ (2013) The 2003 and 2007 Wildfires in Southern California. In ‘Natural Disasters and Adaptation to Climate Change’. (Eds S Boulter, J Palutikof, DJ Karoly, D Guitart) pp. 42–52. (Cambridge University Press: Oxford, UK)

Martínez J, Vega-Garcia C, Chuvieco E (2009) Human-caused wildfire risk rating for prevention planning in Spain. Journal of Environmental Management 90, 1241–1252.
Human-caused wildfire risk rating for prevention planning in Spain.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 18723267PubMed |

Meddour-Sahar O, Meddour R, Leone V, Lovreglio R, Derridj A (2013) Analysis of forest fires causes and their motivations in northern Algeria: the Delphi method. Journal of Biogeosciences and Forestry 6, 247–254.
Analysis of forest fires causes and their motivations in northern Algeria: the Delphi method.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Miller WH (1968) Santa Ana winds and crime. The Professional Geographer 20, 23–27.
Santa Ana winds and crime.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Mitchell JW (2013) Power line failures and catastrophic wildfires under extreme weather conditions. Engineering Failure Analysis 35, 726–735.
Power line failures and catastrophic wildfires under extreme weather conditions.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Moritz MA, Keeley JE, Johnson EA, Schaffner AA (2004) Testing a basic assumption of shrubland fire management: how important is fuel age? Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 2, 67–72.
Testing a basic assumption of shrubland fire management: how important is fuel age?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Moritz MA, Moody TJ, Krawchuk MA, Hughes M, Hall A (2010) Spatial variation in extreme winds predicts large wildfire locations in chaparral ecosystems. Geophysical Research Letters 37, L04801
Spatial variation in extreme winds predicts large wildfire locations in chaparral ecosystems.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Narayanaraj G, Wimberly MC (2011) Influences of forest roads on the spatial pattern of wildfire boundaries. International Journal of Wildland Fire 20, 792–803.
Influences of forest roads on the spatial pattern of wildfire boundaries.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Narayanaraj G, Wimberly MC (2012) Influences of forest roads on the spatial pattern of human- and lightning-caused wildfire ignitions. Applied Geography. 32, 878–888.
Influences of forest roads on the spatial pattern of human- and lightning-caused wildfire ignitions.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Pausas JG, Keeley JE (2009) A burning story: the role of fire in the history of life. Bioscience 59, 593–601.
A burning story: the role of fire in the history of life.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Penman TD, Bradstock RA, Price O (2013) Modelling the determinants of ignition in the Sydney Basin, Australia: implications for future management. International Journal of Wildland Fire 22, 469–478.
Modelling the determinants of ignition in the Sydney Basin, Australia: implications for future management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Phillips SJ, Anderson RP, Schapire RE (2006) Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling 190, 231–259.
Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Prestemon JP, Butry DT (2005) Time to burn: modeling wildland arson as an autoregressive crime function. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 87, 756–770.
Time to burn: modeling wildland arson as an autoregressive crime function.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Prestemon JP, Butry DT, Abt KL, Sutphen R (2010) Net benefits of wildfire prevention education efforts. Forest Science 56, 181–192.

Price OF, Bradstock RA (2012) The influences of weather, terrain and land management on fire severity in the catastrophic 2009 fires in Victoria, Australia. Journal of Environmental Management 113, 146–157.
The influences of weather, terrain and land management on fire severity in the catastrophic 2009 fires in Victoria, Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 23025983PubMed |

PRISM Climate Group (2004) PRISM climate data. Available at http://prism.oregonstate.edu [Verified 12 May 2014]

Reineking B, Weibel P, Conedera M, Bugmann H (2010) Environmental determinants of lightning- v. human-induced forest fire ignitions differ in a temperate mountain region of Switzerland. International Journal of Wildland Fire 19, 541–557.
Environmental determinants of lightning- v. human-induced forest fire ignitions differ in a temperate mountain region of Switzerland.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Romero-Calcerrada R, Novillo CJ, Millington JDA, Gomez-Jimenez I (2008) GIS analysis of spatial patterns of human-caused wildfire ignition risk in the SW of Madrid (Central Spain). Landscape Ecology 23, 341–354.
GIS analysis of spatial patterns of human-caused wildfire ignition risk in the SW of Madrid (Central Spain).Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Sadasivuni R, Cooke WH, Bhushan S (2013) Wildfire risk prediction in southeastern Mississippi using population interaction. Ecological Modelling 251, 297–306.
Wildfire risk prediction in southeastern Mississippi using population interaction.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Stephens SL (2005) Forest fire causes and extent on United States forest service lands. International Journal of Wildland Fire 14, 213–222.
Forest fire causes and extent on United States forest service lands.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Sturtevant BR, Cleland DT (2007) Human and biophysical factors influencing modern fire disturbance in northern Wisconsin. International Journal of Wildland Fire 16, 398–413.
Human and biophysical factors influencing modern fire disturbance in northern Wisconsin.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Syphard AD, Radeloff VC, Keeley JE, Hawbaker TJ, Clayton MK, Stewart SI, Hammer RB (2007) Human influence on California fire regimes. Ecological Applications 17, 1388–1402.
Human influence on California fire regimes.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 17708216PubMed |

Syphard AD, Radeloff VC, Keuler NS, Taylor RS, Hawbaker TJ, Stewart SI, Clayton MK (2008) Predicting spatial patterns of fire on a southern California landscape. International Journal of Wildland Fire 17, 602–613.
Predicting spatial patterns of fire on a southern California landscape.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Syphard AD, Keeley JE, Bar Massada A, Brennan TJ, Radeloff VC (2012) Housing arrangement and location determine the likelihood of housing loss due to wildfire. PLoS ONE 7, e33954
Housing arrangement and location determine the likelihood of housing loss due to wildfire.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC38XltlOit7w%3D&md5=b950af54b5cc76206f45159483f314adCAS | 22470499PubMed |

Syphard AD, Bar Massada A, Butsic V, Keeley JE (2013) Land use planning and wildfire: development policies influence future probability of housing joss. PLoS ONE 8, e71708
Land use planning and wildfire: development policies influence future probability of housing joss.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3sXhtleru7fI&md5=b1b7c474d11a7807589c23889a334148CAS | 23977120PubMed |

Syphard AD, Brennan TJ, Keeley JE (2014) The role of defensible space for residential structure protection during wildfires. International Journal of Wildland Fire
The role of defensible space for residential structure protection during wildfires.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | in press

Thomas DS, Butry DT, Prestemon JP (2011) Enticing arsonists with broken windows and social disorder. Fire Technology 47, 255–273.
Enticing arsonists with broken windows and social disorder.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (2002) Forest fire statistics. UNECE Timber Committee, United Nations, Report ECE/TIM/BULL/2002/4. Available at http://www.unece.org/forests/ff-stats.html [Verified 12 May 2014]

USDA Forest Service (2010) Vegetation classification and mapping. Available at http://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/r5/landmanagement/resourcemanagement/?cid=stelprdb5347192 [Verified 12 May 2014]

Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission (2010) Fire preparation, response and recovery. Final Report Volume II. (Parliament of Victoria: State of Victoria, Australia).

Walsh C, Mac Nally R (2008). hier.part: Hierarchical Partitioning. R package version 1.0–3. (R Foundation for Statistical Computing: Vienna, Austria)

Weisburd D, Wyckoff LA, Ready J, Eck JE, Hinkle JC, Gajewski F (2006) Does crime just move around the corner? A controlled study of spatial displacement and diffusion of crime control benefits. Criminology 44, 549–592.
Does crime just move around the corner? A controlled study of spatial displacement and diffusion of crime control benefits.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Wells ML, O’Leary JF, Franklin J, Michaelson J, McKinsey DE (2004) Variations in a regional fire regime related to vegetation type in San Diego County, California (USA). Landscape Ecology 19, 139–152.
Variations in a regional fire regime related to vegetation type in San Diego County, California (USA).Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Whelan RJ (1995) ‘The Ecology of Fire.’ (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK)

Winter G, McCaffrey S, Vogt CA (2009) The role of community policies in defensible space compliance. Forest Policy and Economics 11, 570–578.
The role of community policies in defensible space compliance.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Wisz MS, Hijmans RJ, Li J, Peterson AT, Graham CH, Guisan A (2008) Effect of sample size on the performance of species distribution models. Diversity & Distributions 14, 763–773.
Effect of sample size on the performance of species distribution models.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |