Calibration of the Fire Weather Index over Mediterranean Europe based on fire activity retrieved from MSG satellite imagery
Carlos C. DaCamara A E , Teresa J. Calado A , Sofia L. Ermida A , Isabel F. Trigo A C , Malik Amraoui A B and Kamil F. Turkman D
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, Edifício C8, Piso 3, PT-1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal.
B Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD), Escola de Ciências e Tecnologia, Quinta de Prados, PT-5001-801 Vila Real, Portugal.
C Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA), Rua C do Aeroporto, Piso 3, PT-1749-077 Lisboa, Portugal.
D Departamento de Estatística e Investigação Operacional (DEIO), Centro de Estatística e Aplicações da Universidade de Lisboa (CEAUL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, Edifício C6, Piso 4, PT-1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal.
E Corresponding author. Email: cdcamara@fc.ul.pt
International Journal of Wildland Fire 23(7) 945-958 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF13157
Submitted: 10 June 2012 Accepted: 23 April 2014 Published: 8 August 2014
Abstract
Here we present a procedure that allows the operational generation of daily maps of fire danger over Mediterranean Europe. These are based on integrated use of vegetation cover maps, weather data and fire activity as detected by remote sensing from space. The study covers the period of July–August 2007 to 2009. It is demonstrated that statistical models based on two-parameter generalised Pareto (GP) distributions adequately fit the observed samples of fire duration and that these models are significantly improved when the Fire Weather Index (FWI), which rates fire danger, is integrated as a covariate of scale parameters of GP distributions. Probabilities of fire duration exceeding specified thresholds are then used to calibrate FWI leading to the definition of five classes of fire danger. Fire duration is estimated on the basis of 15-min data provided by Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites and corresponds to the total number of hours in which fire activity is detected in a single MSG pixel during one day. Considering all observed fire events with duration above 1 h, the relative number of events steeply increases with classes of increasing fire danger and no fire activity was recorded in the class of low danger. Defined classes of fire danger provide useful information for wildfire management and are based on the Fire Risk Mapping product that is being disseminated on a daily basis by the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis.
Additional keywords: fire danger, fire management, generalised Pareto distribution, remote sensing, weather.
References
Amraoui M, DaCamara CC, Pereira JMC (2010) Detection and monitoring of African vegetation fires using MSG-SEVIRI imagery. Remote Sensing of Environment 114, 1038–1052.| Detection and monitoring of African vegetation fires using MSG-SEVIRI imagery.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Amraoui M, Liberato MLR, Calado TJ, DaCamara CC, Coelho LP, Trigo RM, Gouveia CM (2013) Fire activity over Mediterranean Europe based on information from Meteosat-8. Forest Ecology and Management 294, 62–75.
| Fire activity over Mediterranean Europe based on information from Meteosat-8.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Anderson TW, Darling DA (1952) Asymptotic theory of certain ‘goodness of fit’ criteria based on stochastic processes. Annals of Mathematical Statistics 23, 193–212.
| Asymptotic theory of certain ‘goodness of fit’ criteria based on stochastic processes.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Andrews PL, Loftsgaarden DO, Bradshaw LS (2003) Evaluation of fire danger indexes using logistic regression and percentile analysis. International Journal of Wildland Fire 12, 213–226.
| Evaluation of fire danger indexes using logistic regression and percentile analysis.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Bajocco S, Ricotta C (2008) Evidence of selective burning in Sardinia (Italy): which land-cover classes do wildfires prefer? Landscape Ecology 23, 241–248.
| Evidence of selective burning in Sardinia (Italy): which land-cover classes do wildfires prefer?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Barros AMG, Pereira JMC (2014) Wildfire selectivity for land cover type: does size matter? PLoS ONE 9, e84760
| Wildfire selectivity for land cover type: does size matter?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Bartholomé E, Belward AS (2005) GLC2000: a new approach to global land cover mapping from Earth Observation data. International Journal of Remote Sensing 26, 1959–1977.
| GLC2000: a new approach to global land cover mapping from Earth Observation data.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Bovio G, Camia A (1997) Meteorological indices for large fires danger rating. In ‘A Review of Remote Sensing Methods for the Study of Large Wildland Fires’. Megafires project ENV-CT96–0256 (Ed. E Chuvieco) pp. 73–90. (Universidad de Alcalá: Alcalá de Henares, Spain)
Brotons L, Aquilué N, de Cáceres M, Fortin M-J, Fall A (2013) How fire history, fire suppression practices and climate change affect wildfire regimes in Mediterranean landscapes. PLoS ONE 8, e62392
| How fire history, fire suppression practices and climate change affect wildfire regimes in Mediterranean landscapes.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3sXnsFWqsbw%3D&md5=5e25a07a72ec1974a8a97d807ed6e1e0CAS | 23658726PubMed |
Camia A, Amatulli G (2009) Weather factors and fire danger in the Mediterranean. In ‘Earth Observation of Wildland Fires in Mediterranean Ecosystems’. (Ed. E Chuvieco) pp. 71–82. (Springer-Verlag: Berlin)
Carvalho A, Flannigan M, Logan K, Miranda A, Borrego C (2008) Fire activity in Portugal and its relationship to weather and the Canadian Fire Weather Index System. International Journal of Wildland Fire 17, 328–338.
| Fire activity in Portugal and its relationship to weather and the Canadian Fire Weather Index System.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Castillo E, Hadi AS (1997) Fitting the generalized Pareto distribution to data. Journal of the American Statistical Association 92, 1609–1620.
| Fitting the generalized Pareto distribution to data.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Chuvieco E, Congalton RG (1989) Application of remote sensing and geographic information systems to forest fire hazard mapping. Remote Sensing of Environment 29, 147–159.
| Application of remote sensing and geographic information systems to forest fire hazard mapping.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Chuvieco E, González I, Verdú F, Aguado I, Yebra M (2009) Prediction of fire occurrence from live fuel moisture content measurements in a Mediterranean ecosystem. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18, 430–441.
| Prediction of fire occurrence from live fuel moisture content measurements in a Mediterranean ecosystem.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Chuvieco E, Aguado I, Yebra M, Nieto H, Salas J, Martín MP, Vilar L, Martínez J, Martín S, Ibarra P, de la Riva J, Baeza J, Rodríguez F, Molina JR, Herrera MA, Zamora R (2010) Development of a framework for fire risk assessment using remote sensing and geographic information system technologies. Ecological Modelling 221, 46–58.
| Development of a framework for fire risk assessment using remote sensing and geographic information system technologies.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Coles S (2001) ‘An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values.’ (Springer-Verlag: London)
de Zea Bermudez P, Kotz S (2010a) Parameter estimation of the generalized Pareto distribution – Part I. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 140, 1353–1373.
| Parameter estimation of the generalized Pareto distribution – Part I.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
de Zea Bermudez P, Kotz S (2010b) Parameter estimation of the generalized Pareto distribution – Part II. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 140, 1374–1388.
| Parameter estimation of the generalized Pareto distribution – Part II.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
de Zea Bermudez P, Mendes J, Pereira JMC, Turkman KF, Vasconcelos MJP (2009) Spatial and temporal extremes of wildfire sizes in Portugal (1984–2004). International Journal of Wildland Fire 18, 983–991.
| Spatial and temporal extremes of wildfire sizes in Portugal (1984–2004).Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Dimitrakopoulos AP, Mitsopoulos ID, Gatoulas K (2010) Assessing ignition probability and moisture of extinction in a Mediterranean grass fuel. International Journal of Wildland Fire 19, 29–34.
| Assessing ignition probability and moisture of extinction in a Mediterranean grass fuel.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Dimitrakopoulos AP, Bemmerzouk AM, Mitsopoulos ID (2011) Evaluation of the Canadian fire weather index system in an eastern Mediterranean environment. Meteorological Applications 18, 83–93.
| Evaluation of the Canadian fire weather index system in an eastern Mediterranean environment.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Embrechts P, Kluppelberg C, Mikosch T (1997) ‘Modelling Extremal Events: For Insurance and Finance.’ (Springer: Berlin).
EUMETSAT (1999) LRIT/HRIT global specification. EUMETSAT, Coordination group for meteorological satellites, CGMS 03. (Darmstadt, Germany)
EUMETSAT (2010) MSG level 1.5 image data format description. EUMETSAT, EUM/MSG/ICD/105. (Darmstadt, Germany)
European Commission (2008) Forest Fires in Europe 2007, EUR 23492 EN, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities. (Luxembourg)
European Commission (2009) Forest Fires in Europe 2008, EUR 23971 EN, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities. (Luxembourg)
European Commission (2010) Forest Fires in Europe 2009, EUR 24502 EN, Publication Office of the European Union. (Luxembourg)
European Commission (2011) Forest Fires in Europe 2010, EUR 24910 EN, Publication Office of the European Union. (Luxembourg)
Faires JD, Burden RL (1985) ‘Numerical Analysis.’ (Prindle, Weber & Schmidt: Boston, MA)
Fernandes PM (2008) Forest fires in Galicia (Spain): the outcome of unbalanced fire management. Journal of Forest Economics 14, 155–157.
| Forest fires in Galicia (Spain): the outcome of unbalanced fire management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Fernandes PM (2013) Fire-smart management of forest landscapes in the Mediterranean basin under global change. Landscape and Urban Planning 110, 175–182.
| Fire-smart management of forest landscapes in the Mediterranean basin under global change.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Finney MA (2005) The challenge of quantitative risk analysis for wildland fire. Forest Ecology and Management 211, 97–108.
| The challenge of quantitative risk analysis for wildland fire.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Fujioka FM, Gill AM, Viegas DX, Wotton BM (2008) Fire danger and fire behavior modeling systems in Australia, Europe and North America. Developments in Environmental Science 8, 471–497.
| Fire danger and fire behavior modeling systems in Australia, Europe and North America.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Grimshaw SD (1993) Computing maximum likelihood estimates for the generalized Pareto distribution. Technometrics 35, 185–191.
| Computing maximum likelihood estimates for the generalized Pareto distribution.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Holmes TP, Huggett RJ Jr, Westerling AL (2008) Statistical analysis of large wildfires. In ‘The Economics of Forest Disturbances: Wildfires, Storms, and Invasive Species’. (Eds TP Holmes, JP Prestemon JP, KL Abt) Vol. 79, pp. 59–77. (Springer Forestry Sciences Series: Berlin)
Kiil AD, Miyagawa RS, Quintilio D (1977) Calibration and performance of the Canadian fire weather index in Alberta. Canadian Forestry Service, Northern Forest Research Centre, Information Report NOR-X-173. (Edmonton, AB)
Kotz S, Nadarajah S (2000) ‘Extreme Value Distributions: Theory and Applications.’ (Imperial College Press: London)
Lavorel S, Flannigan MD, Lambin EF, Scholes MC (2007) Vulnerability of land systems to fire: interactions between humans, climate, the atmosphere and ecosystems. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 12, 33–53.
| Vulnerability of land systems to fire: interactions between humans, climate, the atmosphere and ecosystems.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Lawrence MG (2005) The relationship between relative humidity and the dewpoint temperature in moist air: a simple conversion and applications. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 86, 225–233.
| The relationship between relative humidity and the dewpoint temperature in moist air: a simple conversion and applications.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Lloret F, Calvo E, Pons X, Díaz-Delgado R (2002) Wildfires and landscape patterns in the Eastern Iberian Peninsula. Landscape Ecology 17, 745–759.
| Wildfires and landscape patterns in the Eastern Iberian Peninsula.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Mataix-Solera J, Cerdà A, Arcenegui VA, Jordán A, Zavala LM (2011) Fire effects on soil aggregation: a review. Earth-Science Reviews 109, 44–60.
| Fire effects on soil aggregation: a review.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Mendes JM, de Zea Bermudez PC, Pereira J, Turkman KF, Vasconcelos MJP (2010) Spatial extremes of wildfire sizes: Bayesian hierarchical models for extremes. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 17, 1–28.
| Spatial extremes of wildfire sizes: Bayesian hierarchical models for extremes.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Moreira F, Catry FX, Rego F, Bacao F (2010) Size-dependent pattern of wildfire ignitions in Portugal: when do ignitions turn into big fires? Landscape Ecology 25, 1405–1417.
| Size-dependent pattern of wildfire ignitions in Portugal: when do ignitions turn into big fires?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Moreira F, Viedma O, Arianoutsou M, Curt T, Koutsias N, Rigolot E, Barbati A, Corona P, Vaz P, Xanthopoulos G, Mouillot F, Bilgili E (2011) Landscape–wildfire interactions in Southern Europe: implications for landscape management. Journal of Environmental Management 92, 2389–2402.
| Landscape–wildfire interactions in Southern Europe: implications for landscape management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 21741757PubMed |
Moreno JM, Vázquez A, Vélez R (1998) Recent history of forest fires in Spain. In ‘Large Forest Fires’. (Ed. JM Moreno) pp. 159–185. (Backhuys Publishers: Leiden)
Moreno JM, Viedma O, Zavala G, Luna B (2011) Landscape variables influencing forest fires in central Spain. International Journal of Wildland Fire 20, 678–689.
| Landscape variables influencing forest fires in central Spain.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Neyman J, Pearson ES (1933) On the problem of the most efficient tests of statistical hypotheses. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London – A. Mathematical and Physical Sciences 231, 289–337.
Pausas JG, Vallejo R (1999) The role of fire in European Mediterranean ecosystems. In ‘Remote Sensing of Large Wildfires in the European Mediterranean Basin’. (Ed. E Chuvieco) pp. 3–16. (Springer-Verlag: Berlin)
Pereira MG, Trigo RM, DaCamara CC, Pereira JMC, Leite SM (2005) Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 129, 11–25.
| Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Pereira MG, Malamud BD, Trigo RM, Alves PI (2011) The history and characteristics of the 1980–2005 Portuguese rural fire database. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 11, 3343–3358.
| The history and characteristics of the 1980–2005 Portuguese rural fire database.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Pereira MG, Calado TJ, DaCamara CC, Calheiros T (2013) Effects of regional climate change on rural fires in Portugal. Climatic Change 57, 187–200.
Pickands J (1975) Statistical inference using extreme order statistics. Annals of Statistics 3, 119–131.
| Statistical inference using extreme order statistics.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
San-Miguel-Ayanz J, Carlson JD, Alexander M, Tolhurst K, Morgan G, Sneeuwjagt R, Dudley M (2003) Current methods to assess fire danger potential. In ‘Wildland Fire Danger Estimation and Mapping’. (Ed. E Chuvieco) pp. 20–61. (World Scientific Publishing: Singapore)
San-Miguel-Ayanz J, Schulte E, Schmuck G, Camia A, Strobl P, Liberta G, Giovando C, Boca R, Sedano F, Kempeneers P, McInerney D, Withmore C, Santos de Oliveira S, Rodrigues M, Durrant T, Corti P, Oehler F, Vilar L, Amatulli G (2012) Comprehensive monitoring of wildfires in Europe: the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS). In ‘Approaches to Managing Disaster – Assessing Hazards, Emergencies and Disaster Impacts’. (Ed. J Tiefenbacher) pp. 87–108. (InTech: Rijeka, Croatia)
San-Miguel-Ayanz J, Moreno JM, Camia A (2013) Analysis of large fires in European Mediterranean landscapes: lessons learned and perspectives. Forest Ecology and Management 294, 11–22.
| Analysis of large fires in European Mediterranean landscapes: lessons learned and perspectives.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Stephens MA (1986) Tests based on EDF statistics. In ‘Goodness-of-Fit Techniques’. (Eds RB D’Agostino, MA Stephens) pp. 97–193. (Marcel Dekker: New York)
Stocks BJ, Lawson BD, Alexander ME, Van Wagner CE, McAlpine RS, Lynham TJ, Dube DE (1989) The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System: an overview. Forestry Chronicle 65, 450–457.
| The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System: an overview.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Šturm T, Fernandes PM, Šumrada R (2012) The Canadian Fire Weather Index System and wildfire activity in the Karst forest management area, Slovenia. European Journal of Forest Research 131, 829–834.
| The Canadian Fire Weather Index System and wildfire activity in the Karst forest management area, Slovenia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Sun C, Tolver A (2012) Assessing the distribution patterns of wildfire sizes in Mississippi, USA. International Journal of Wildland Fire 21, 510–520.
| Assessing the distribution patterns of wildfire sizes in Mississippi, USA.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Trigo RM, Pereira JM, Pereira MG, Mota B, Calado MT, DaCamara CC, Santo FE (2006) Atmospheric conditions associated with the exceptional fire season of 2003 in Portugal. International Journal of Climatology 26, 1741–1757.
| Atmospheric conditions associated with the exceptional fire season of 2003 in Portugal.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Trigo IF, DaCamara CC, Viterbo P, Roujean J-L, Olesen F, Barroso C, Camacho-de-Coca F, Carrer D, Freitas SC, García-Haro J, Geiger B, Gellens-Meulenberghs F, Ghilain N, Meliá J, Pessanha L, Siljamo N, Arboleda A (2011) The satellite application facility for land surface analysis. International Journal of Remote Sensing 32, 2725–2744.
| The satellite application facility for land surface analysis.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Van Wagner CE (1974) Structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index. Canadian Forestry Service, Publication 1333. (Ottawa, ON)
Van Wagner CE (1987) Development and structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. Canadian Forestry Service, Technical Report 35. (Ottawa, ON)
Viegas DX, Viegas MTSP, Ferreira AD (1992) Moisture content of fine forest fuels and fire occurrence in central Portugal. International Journal of Wildland Fire 2, 69–86.
| Moisture content of fine forest fuels and fire occurrence in central Portugal.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Viegas DX, Bovio G, Ferreira A, Nosenzo A, Sol B (1999) Comparative study of various methods of fire danger evaluation in southern Europe. International Journal of Wildland Fire 9, 235–246.
| Comparative study of various methods of fire danger evaluation in southern Europe.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Viegas DX, Reis RM, Cruz MG, Viegas MT (2004) Calibration of Canadian Fire Danger Rating System for application to Portugal. Silva Lusitana 12, 77–93.
