Climate change and associated fire potential for the south-eastern United States in the 21st century
Anthony P. Bedel A D , Thomas L. Mote B and Scott L. Goodrick C
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Kentucky Division for Air Quality, 200 Fair Oaks Lane, 1st Floor, Frankfort, KY 40601, USA.
B University of Georgia, 210 Field Street, Room 204, Athens, GA 30602, USA.
C United States Department of Agriculture’s Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Center for Forest Disturbance Science, 320 Green Street, Athens, GA 30602, USA.
D Corresponding author. Email: anthony.bedel@ky.gov
International Journal of Wildland Fire 22(8) 1034-1043 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF13018
Submitted: 5 February 2013 Accepted: 18 June 2013 Published: 21 August 2013
Abstract
Climate models indicate that the climate of the south-eastern US will experience increasing temperatures and associated evapotranspiration in the 21st century. The current study found that conditions in the south-eastern US will likely become drier overall, given a warmer environment during future winter and spring seasons. This study examined the potential effects of a warmer climate in the 21st century on relevant meteorological fire parameters (e.g. total and convective precipitation, 500-hPa geopotential heights, near-surface relative humidity) and popular fire indices (e.g. Haines and Keetch–Byram Drought Indices) in the south-eastern US. Although the results offered conflicting implications in portions of the study domain, the southern half of the south-eastern US (including the Deep South, the southern Piedmont and Florida) exhibited the highest potential for increasing fire activity in the mid-21st century, given maximum warming and drying in these areas, especially in the spring season.
Additional keywords: forest fires, Haines Index, KBDI.
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