Behaviour of fire weather indices in the 2009–10 New Zealand wildland fire season
Colin C. Simpson A B C E , H. Grant Pearce D , Andrew P. Sturman A and Peyman Zawar-Reza AA Centre for Atmospheric Research, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, 8140, New Zealand.
B School of Physical, Environmental and Mathematical Sciences, University of New South Wales at Canberra, Canberra, 2610 ACT, Australia.
C Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre, East Melbourne, VIC 3002, Australia.
D Rural Fire Research Group, Scion, Forestry Road, Ilam, Christchurch 8041, New Zealand.
E Corresponding author. Email: c.simpson@adfa.edu.au
International Journal of Wildland Fire 23(8) 1147-1164 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF12169
Submitted: 8 October 2012 Accepted: 21 June 2014 Published: 11 November 2014
Abstract
The Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale atmospheric model was used to investigate fire weather conditions during the 2009–10 New Zealand wildland fire season. The analysis considered New Zealand's version of the Fire Weather Index used in the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System, the Haines Index (HI) and the Continuous Haines Index (CHI). This represents the first investigation in New Zealand of the HI and CHI, which rate the potential for extreme fire behaviour or large fire growth based on the lower tropospheric atmospheric stability and humidity. The wildland fire activity during the 2009–10 fire season was typical of New Zealand, and there was considerable spatial and temporal variability in the fire weather conditions. The most frequent severe fire weather conditions as quantified by the fire weather indices occurred to the east of the dividing mountain ranges in both the North Island and South Island, and were associated with the hot, dry and windy north-westerly foehn winds that commonly affect New Zealand. The 36 wildland fires greater in area than 5 ha during the 2009–10 fire season occurred under a range of fire weather conditions, and no correlation was found between the wildland fire size and each individual weather variable.
Additional keywords: Continuous Haines Index, Haines Index, numerical weather prediction.
References
Alexander ME (2008) Proposed revision of fire danger class criteria for forest and rural areas in New Zealand, 2nd edn. National Rural Fire Authority, in association with the Scion Rural Fire Research Group. (Wellington)Anderson S (2005) Forest and rural fire danger rating in New Zealand. In ‘Forestry Handbook’. (Ed. M Colley) pp. 241–244. (New Zealand Institute of Forestry: Christchurch)
Chen F, Dudhia J (2001) Coupling an advanced land-surface/hydrology model with the Penn State/NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part I. Model description and implementation. Monthly Weather Review 129, 569–585.
| Coupling an advanced land-surface/hydrology model with the Penn State/NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part I. Model description and implementation.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Clifford VR, Pearce HG (2009) Fire behaviour case study: Mt Cook Station fire, 16 January 2008. Scion, Rural Fire Research Group, Scion Report number 17031. (Christchurch)
Countryman CM (1972) The fire environment concept. USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station, Technical Paper. (Berkeley, CA)
Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ, Berrisford P, Poli P, Kobayashi S, Andrae U, Balmaseda MA, Balsamo G, Bauer P, Bechtold P, Beljaars ACM, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Delsol C, Dragani R, Fuentes M, Geer AJ, Haimberger L, Healy SB, Hersbach H, Hólm EV, Isaksen L, Kållberg P, Köhler M, Matricardi M, McNally AP, Monge-Sanz BM, Morcrette J-J, Park B-K, Peubey C, de Rosnay P, Tavolato C, Thépaut J-N, Vitart F (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 137, 553–597.
| The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Doherty J, Anderson S, Pearce G (2008) An analysis of wildfire records in New Zealand 1991–2007. Scion, Rural Fire Research Group, Scion Client Report number 12789. (Christchurch)
Dudhia J (1989) Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 46, 3077–3107.
| Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Fogarty LG, Pearce HG, Catchpole WR, Alexander ME (1998) Adoption vs. adaptation: lessons from applying the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System in New Zealand. In ‘Proceedings of the III International Conference on Forest Fire Research and 14th Conference on Fire and Forest Meteorology’, 21–24 November 1998, Luso, Coimbra, Portugal. (Ed. DX Viegas) pp. 1011–1028. (ADAI: Coimbra, Portugal)
Gosai A, Griffiths G (2004) An updated validation of seasonal fire weather climate outlooks. New Zealand Fire Service Commission, NZFSC Research Report number 77. (Wellington)
Gosai A, Heydenrych C, Salinger J (2003) Climate and severe fire seasons: Part III – climate patterns and high fire severity in Northland and Canterbury. New Zealand Fire Service Commission, NZFSC Research Report number 75. (Wellington)
Gosai A, Griffiths G, Salinger J (2004) Climate and severe fire seasons: Part IV – daily weather sequences and high fire severity in Auckland, West/Waikato, North Canterbury, McKenzie Basin and Central Otago/Inland Southland. New Zealand Fire Service Commission, NZFSC Research Report number 76. (Wellington)
Griffiths G (2004) Climate and severe fire seasons: Part V – daily weather sequence and high fire severity in Auckland East/Coromandel, Bay of Plenty, Gisborne/Hawke’s Bay, Manawatu/Wairarapa, Wellington/Marlborough and coastal Otago. National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, NIWA Client Report AKL2004–135.
Haines DA (1988) A lower atmosphere severity index for wildlife fires. National Weather Digest 13, 23–27.
Hamilton R (2007) Operational 10-day forecasts of fire weather indices. New Zealand Fire Service Commission Research Report number 70. (Wellington)
Heydenrych C, Salinger J (2002) Climate and severe fire seasons: Part II – New Zealand fire regions. New Zealand Fire Service Commission, NZFSC Research Report number 73. (Wellington)
Heydenrych C, Salinger J, Renwick J (2001) Climate and severe fire seasons: a report on climatic factors contributing to severe fire seasons in New Zealand. New Zealand Fire Service Commission, NZFSC Research Report number 11. (Wellington)
Hong SY, Lim JOJ (2006) The WRF Single-Moment 6-Class Microphysics Scheme (WSM6). Journal of the Korean Meteorological Society 42, 129–151.
Janjić ZI (1990) The step-mountain coordinate: physical package. Monthly Weather Review 118, 1429–1443.
| The step-mountain coordinate: physical package.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Janjić ZI (1996) The surface layer in the NCEP Eta model. In ‘Eleventh Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction’, 19–23 August 1996, Norfolk, VA pp. 354–355. (American Meteorological Society: Boston, MA)
Janjić ZI (2002) Nonsingular implementation of the Mellor–Yamada Level 2.5 Scheme in the NCEP Meso model. National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Office Note 437. (Camp Springs, MD)
Kain JS (2004) The Kain–Fritsch convective parameterization: an update. Journal of Applied Meteorology 43, 170–181.
| The Kain–Fritsch convective parameterization: an update.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Klemp JB, Dudhia J, Hassiotis AD (2008) An upper gravity-wave absorbing layer for NWP applications. Monthly Weather Review 136, 3987–4004.
| An upper gravity-wave absorbing layer for NWP applications.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Lawson BD, Armitage OB (2008) Weather guide for the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre. (Edmonton, AB)
McArthur AG (1966) Weather and grassland fire behaviour. Department of National Development, Forestry and Timber Bureau Leaflet number 100. (Canberra)
McArthur AG (1967) Fire behaviour in eucalypt forests. Department of National Development, Forestry and Timber Bureau Leaflet number 107. (Canberra)
McGowan HA, Sturman AP (1996) Regional and local scale characteristics of foehn wind events over the South Island of New Zealand. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 58, 151–164.
| Regional and local scale characteristics of foehn wind events over the South Island of New Zealand.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Mills GA, McCaw WL (2010) Atmospheric stability environments and fire weather in Australia – extending the Haines Index. Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research Technical Report number 20. (Melbourne)
Mlawer EJ, Taubman SJ, Brown PD, Iacono MJ, Clough SA (1997) Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmosphere: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the long-wave. Journal of Geophysical Research 102, 16663–16682.
| Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmosphere: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the long-wave.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DyaK2sXlsFGiu7s%3D&md5=11c7bd1f0854e5b64d338f93947b1266CAS |
NIWA (2009) Annual climate summary 2009. National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, NIWA online publication. (Wellington) Available at http://www.niwa.co.nz/climate/summaries/annual/2009 [Verified 18 October 2013]
NIWA (2010) Annual climate summary 2010. National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, NIWA online publication. (Wellington) Available at http://www.niwa.co.nz/climate/summaries/annual/annual-climate-summary-2010 [Verified 18 October 2013]
Orlanski I (1975) A rational subdivision of scales for atmospheric processes. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 56, 527–530.
Pearce G (1996) An initial assessment of fire danger in New Zealand’s climatic regions. Fire Technology Transfer Note. Forest and Rural Fire Research Programme, New Zealand Forest Research Institute. (Rotorua)
Pearce HG, Clifford V (2008) Fire weather and climate of New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Forestry 53, 13–18. Available at http://www.nzjf.org/abstract.php?volume_issue=j53_3&first_page=13 [Verified 25 September 14]
Pearce HG, Moore JR (2004). Use of long-term fire danger data sets to predict fire season severity. Forest Research and Rural Fire Research Programme, Forest Research Client Report number 11512. (Christchurch)
Pearce HG, Whitmore MA (2009). Analysis of seasonal trends in the Drought Code in New Zealand. Scion, Rural Fire Research Group, Scion Client Report number 12788. (Christchurch)
Pearce HG, Douglas KL, Moore JR (2003) A fire danger climatology for New Zealand. New Zealand Fire Service Commission, NZFSC Research Report number 39. (Wellington)
Pearce HG, Mullan AB, Salinger MJ, Opperman TW, Woods D, Moore JR (2005). Impacts of climate change on long-term fire danger. New Zealand Fire Service Commission, NZFSC Research Report number 50. (Wellington)
Pearce HG, Salinger J, Renwick J (2007). Impact of climate variability on fire danger. New Zealand Fire Service Commission, NZFSC Research Report No. 72. (Wellington)
Pearce HG, Kerr JL, Clifford VR, Wakelin HM (2011a) Fire climate severity across New Zealand. Scion, Rural Fire Research Group, Scion Client Report number 18264. (Christchurch)
Pearce HG, Kerr J, Clark A, Mullan B, Ackerley D, Carey-Smith T, Yang E (2011b). Improved estimates of the effect of climate change on NZ fire danger. Scion, Rural Fire Research Group, Scion Client Report number 18087. (Wellington)
Potter BE (2012a) Atmospheric interactions with wildland fire behaviour – I. Basic surface interactions, vertical profiles and synoptic structures. International Journal of Wildland Fire 21, 779–801.
| Atmospheric interactions with wildland fire behaviour – I. Basic surface interactions, vertical profiles and synoptic structures.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Potter BE (2012b) Atmospheric interactions with wildland fire behaviour – II. Plume and vortex dynamics. International Journal of Wildland Fire 21, 802–817.
| Atmospheric interactions with wildland fire behaviour – II. Plume and vortex dynamics.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Potter BE, Goodrick S, Brown T (2003). Development of a statistical validation methodology of fire weather indices. In ‘Proceedings of 2nd International Wildland Fire Ecology and Fire Management Congress, 5th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology’, 16–20 November 2003, Orlando, FL. (American Meteorological Society: Boston, MA)
Renwick JA (2011) Kidsons synoptic weather types and surface climate variability over New Zealand. Weather and Climate 31, 3–23. Available at http://www.metsoc.org.nz/publications/journals [Verified 25 September 2014]
Renwick J, Salinger MJ (2004). Validation of seasonal fire climate outlooks. National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, NIWA Client Report AKL2003–34. (Auckland)
Renwick J, Salinger J, Zheng X, Pearce G (2007). Prediction of fire weather and fire danger. New Zealand Fire Service Commission, NZFSC Research Report number 83. (Wellington)
Simmers T (2005). Medium range forecasts of fire weather indices: an assessment of canonical correlation based forecasts from an ensemble prediction system. New Zealand Fire Service Commission, NZFSC Research Report number 64. (Wellington)
Simpson C, Pearce G, Clifford V (2013). High-resolution WRF simulation of fire weather associated with the Mt Cook Station fire. In ‘MODSIM2013, 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation’, 1–6 December 2013, Adelaide, Australia. (Eds J Piantadosi, RS Anderssen, J Boland) Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, pp. 277–283. Available at http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2013/A3/simpson2.pdf [Verified 18 August 2014]
Simpson CC, Pearce HG, Sturman AP, Zawar-Reza P (2014) Verification of WRF modelled fire weather in the 2009–10 New Zealand fire season. International Journal of Wildland Fire 23, 34–45.
| Verification of WRF modelled fire weather in the 2009–10 New Zealand fire season.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Skamarock WC, Klemp JB, Dudhia J, Gill DO, Barker DM, Duda MG, Huang XY, Wang W, Powers JG (2008) A description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3. National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-475. (Boulder, CO) Available at http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/docs/arw_v3.pdf [Verified 1 August 2013]
Stocks BJ, Alexander ME, Van Wagner CE, McAlpine RS, Lynham TJ, Dube DE (1989) The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System: an overview. Forestry Chronicle 65, 450–457.
| The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System: an overview.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Sturman A, Tapper N (2005) ‘The Weather and Climate of Australia and New Zealand.’ 2nd edn. (Oxford University Press: Melbourne, Vic.)
Sturman AP, McGowan HA, Spronken-Smith RA (1999) Mesoscale and local climates in New Zealand. Progress in Physical Geography 23, 611–635.
| Mesoscale and local climates in New Zealand.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Van Wagner CE (1987) Development and structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. Government of Canada, Canadian Forestry Service, Forestry Technical Report 35. (Ottawa, ON)
Van Wagner CE, Pickett TL (1985) Equations and FORTRAN program for the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. Government of Canada, Canadian Forestry Service, Forestry Technical Report 33. (Ottawa, ON)
Wicker LJ, Skamarock WC (2002) Time splitting methods for elastic models using forward time schemes. Monthly Weather Review 130, 2088–2097.
| Time splitting methods for elastic models using forward time schemes.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Winkler JA, Potter BE, Wilhelm DF, Shadbolt RP, Piromsopa K, Bian X (2007) Climatological and statistical characteristics of the Haines Index for North America. International Journal of Wildland Fire 16, 139–152.
| Climatological and statistical characteristics of the Haines Index for North America.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Zeng X, Beljaars A (2005) A prognostic scheme of sea surface skin temperature for modeling and data assimilation. Geophysical Research Letters 32, L14605
| A prognostic scheme of sea surface skin temperature for modeling and data assimilation.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |