Assessing the distribution patterns of wildfire sizes in Mississippi, USA
Changyou Sun A B and Branden Tolver AA Department of Forestry, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS 39762, USA.
B Corresponding author. Email: csun@cfr.msstate.edu
International Journal of Wildland Fire 21(5) 510-520 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF10107
Submitted: 15 September 2010 Accepted: 26 October 2011 Published: 18 May 2012
Abstract
Wildland fires can produce dramatic ecological and economic impacts. The objective of this study was to analyse the temporal and spatial distribution patterns of wildland fires using 64 474 fire records in Mississippi, collected between 1991 and 2007. The methodology employed was descriptive statistics and extreme value statistics. The analyses were conducted for all the fires combined, and also by year, period, ecoregion and cause separately. Wildland fires occurred most frequently between February and May, with more than half of all the fires occurring in that period. The ecoregion of outer coastal plain mixed-forest province had more fire occurrences and the ecoregion of south-eastern mixed-forestry province had more catastrophic fires. By fire cause, debris and incendiary fires combined were responsible for 89.6% of the area burned. The top 10% of the largest fires burned 58.8% of the total area. The extreme value statistics revealed that wildfires in Mississippi displayed a generalised Pareto distribution. Based on predictions from the peaks-over-threshold models, the largest wildland fire in Mississippi within the next 10 years could burn 2171 ha. These outcomes can help landowners and government agencies make better decisions related to forest investments, fire suppression and budget planning.
Additional keywords: extremal index, generalised Pareto distribution, peaks over threshold, return level.
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