Free Standard AU & NZ Shipping For All Book Orders Over $80!
Register      Login
International Journal of Wildland Fire International Journal of Wildland Fire Society
Journal of the International Association of Wildland Fire
RESEARCH ARTICLE

Fuel age, weather and burn probability in Portugal

Paulo M. Fernandes A B C , Carlos Loureiro A B , Marco Magalhães B , Pedro Ferreira B and Manuel Fernandes B
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

A Centro de Investigação e de Tecnologias Agro-Ambientais e Tecnológicas (CITAB), Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Apartado 1013, PT-5001-801, Portugal.

B Departamento de Ciências Florestais e Arquitectura Paisagista, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Apartado 1013, PT-5001-801, Portugal.

C Corresponding author. Email: pfern@utad.pt

International Journal of Wildland Fire 21(4) 380-384 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF10063
Submitted: 9 November 2010  Accepted: 24 September 2011   Published: 9 March 2012

Abstract

The relative influence of the factors acting on burn probability, namely fuel and weather, is not well understood, especially in Europe. We use a digital fire atlas (1975–2008) and apply survival analysis to individual fires (1998–2008) to describe how burn probability changes with fuel age in Portugal. The typical fire return interval and median fire-free interval vary regionally from 23 to 52 and 18 to 47 years. Increase of the hazard of burning with time is generally near-linear, denoting moderate fuel-age dependency, as in some other shrub-dominated Mediterranean environments. Analysis of complete fire intervals resulted in shorter fire return interval and higher fuel-age dependency of burn probability than findings that included censored observations. Increasingly severe weather conditions either expressed through fire size or by extreme fire danger concurrently decreased fuel-age dependency and selected older fuels. The results are discussed from the viewpoints of fire suppression and fuel treatments.

Additional keywords: fire frequency analysis, fire regimes, Mediterranean-type ecosystems, shrubland.


References

Albuquerque JPM (1961) Divisão regional do continente Português. Agricultura 9, 1–11.

Beighley M, Quesinberry M (2004) USA–Portugal wildland fire technical exchange project – final report. USDA Forest Service.

Boer MM, Sadler RJ, Bradstock RA, Gill AM, Grierson PF (2008) Spatial scale invariance of southern Australian forest fires mirrors the scaling behaviour of fire-driving weather events. Landscape Ecology 23, 899–913.

Boer MM, Sadler RJ, Wittkuhn R, McCaw L, Grierson PF (2009) Long-term impacts of prescribed burning on regional extent and incidence of wildfires – evidence from fifty years of active fire management in SW Australian forests. Forest Ecology and Management 259, 132–142.
Long-term impacts of prescribed burning on regional extent and incidence of wildfires – evidence from fifty years of active fire management in SW Australian forests.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Bradstock RA (2010) A biogeographic model of fire regimes in Australia: current and future implications. Global Ecology and Biogeography 19, 145–158.
A biogeographic model of fire regimes in Australia: current and future implications.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Camia A, Amatulli G (2009) Weather factors and fire danger in the Mediterranean. In ‘Earth Observation of Wildland Fires in Mediterranean Ecosystems’. (Ed. E Chuvieco) pp. 71–82. (Springer-Verlag: Berlin)

Carvalho A, Flannigan MD, Logan K, Miranda AI, Borrego C (2008) Fire activity in Portugal and its relationship to weather and the Canadian Fire Weather Index System. International Journal of Wildland Fire 17, 328–338.
Fire activity in Portugal and its relationship to weather and the Canadian Fire Weather Index System.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

de Zea Bermudez P, Mendes J, Pereira JMC, Turkman KF, Vasconcelos MJP (2009) Spatial and temporal extremes of wildfire sizes in Portugal (1984–2004). International Journal of Wildland Fire 18, 983–991.
Spatial and temporal extremes of wildfire sizes in Portugal (1984–2004).Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Díaz-Delgado R, Lloret F, Pons X (2004) Statistical analysis of fire frequency models for Catalonia (NE Spain, 1975–1998) based on fire scar maps from Landsat MSS data. International Journal of Wildland Fire 13, 89–99.
Statistical analysis of fire frequency models for Catalonia (NE Spain, 1975–1998) based on fire scar maps from Landsat MSS data.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Fernandes P, Rego F (1998) Changes in fuel structure and fire behaviour with heathland aging in Northern Portugal. In ‘Proceedings of the 13th Conference on Fire and Forest Meteorology’, 27–31 October 1996, Lorne, Australia. pp. 433–436. (International Association of Wildland Fire: Fairfield, WA, USA)

Fernandes P, Botelho H, Cohen M, Cuiñas P, Dupuy JL, Fonturbel T, Loureiro C, Maréchal J, Petit P, Pérez-Gorostiaga P, Portier D, Rigolot E, Ruas L, Valette JC, Vega JA (2004) FIRE STAR: a decision support system for fuel management and fire hazard reduction in Mediterranean wildland–urban interface. Field fires: second campaign. Deliverable D7-05, PIF 2004–09. (EUFIRELAB) Available at http://www.eufirelab.org/toolbox2/library/reference.php?reference_id=842[Verified 27 January 2011]

Fernandes PM, Botelho HS (2003) A review of prescribed burning effectiveness in fire hazard reduction. International Journal of Wildland Fire 12, 117–128.
A review of prescribed burning effectiveness in fire hazard reduction.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Grissino-Mayer HD (1999) Modeling fire interval data from the American South-west with the Weibull distribution. International Journal of Wildland Fire 9, 37–50.
Modeling fire interval data from the American South-west with the Weibull distribution.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Hoinka KP, Carvalho A, Miranda AI (2009) Regional-scale weather patterns and wildland fires in central Portugal. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18, 36–49.
Regional-scale weather patterns and wildland fires in central Portugal.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Johnson E, Gutsell SL (1994) Fire frequency models, methods, and interpretations. Advances in Ecological Research 25, 239–287.
Fire frequency models, methods, and interpretations.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Keeley JE (2002) Fire management of California shrubland landscapes. Environmental Management 29, 395–408.
Fire management of California shrubland landscapes.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Keeley JE, Zedler PH (2009) Large, high-intensity fire events in southern California shrublands: debunking the fine-grain age patch model. Ecological Applications 19, 69–94.
Large, high-intensity fire events in southern California shrublands: debunking the fine-grain age patch model.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Macedo FW, Sardinha AM (1993) ‘Fogos Florestais.’ (Publicações Ciência e Vida Lda: Lisbon, Portugal)

Minnich RA (1983) Fire mosaics in southern California and northern Baja California. Science 219, 1287–1294.
Fire mosaics in southern California and northern Baja California.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:STN:280:DC%2BC3cvhvVymsQ%3D%3D&md5=1fa42420516c35fa1d7ef7dddb138fbfCAS |

Moritz MA (2003) Spatiotemporal analysis of controls on shrubland fire regimes: age dependency and fire hazard. Ecology 84, 351–361.
Spatiotemporal analysis of controls on shrubland fire regimes: age dependency and fire hazard.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Moritz MA, Keeley JE, Johnson EA, Schaffner AA (2004) Testing a basic assumption of shrubland fire management: how important is fuel age? Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 2, 67–72.
Testing a basic assumption of shrubland fire management: how important is fuel age?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Moritz MA, Tadashi JM, Miles LJ, Smith MM, de Valpine P (2009) The fire frequency analysis branch of the pyrostatistics tree: sampling decisions and censoring in fire interval data. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 16, 271–289.
The fire frequency analysis branch of the pyrostatistics tree: sampling decisions and censoring in fire interval data.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Moritz MA, Moody TJ, Krawchuk MA, Hughes M, Hall A (2010) Spatial variation in extreme winds predicts large wildfire locations in chaparral ecosystems. Geophysical Research Letters 37, L04801
Spatial variation in extreme winds predicts large wildfire locations in chaparral ecosystems.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Nunes MCS, Vasconcelos MJ, Pereira JMC, Dasgupta N, Alldredge RJ, Rego FC (2005) Land-cover type and fire in Portugal: do fires burn land cover selectively? Landscape Ecology 20, 661–673.
Land-cover type and fire in Portugal: do fires burn land cover selectively?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

O’Donnell AJ, Boer MM, McCaw WL, Grierson PF (2011) Vegetation and landscape connectivity control wildfire intervals in unmanaged semi-arid shrublands and woodlands in Australia. Journal of Biogeography 38, 112–124.
Vegetation and landscape connectivity control wildfire intervals in unmanaged semi-arid shrublands and woodlands in Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Palheiro PM, Fernandes P, Cruz MG (2006) A fire behaviour-based fire danger classification for maritime pine stands: comparison of two approaches. Forest Ecology and Management 234, S54
A fire behaviour-based fire danger classification for maritime pine stands: comparison of two approaches.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Pereira JMC, Santos TN (2003) ‘Fire Risk and Burned Area Mapping in Portugal.’ (Direcção Geral das Florestas: Lisbon, Portugal)

Pereira MG, Trigo RM, da Camara C, Pereira JMC, Leite SM (2005) Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 129, 11–25.
Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Polakow DA, Dunne TT (1999) Modelling fire-return interval T: stochasticity and censoring in the two-parameter Weibull model. Ecological Modelling 121, 79–102.
Modelling fire-return interval T: stochasticity and censoring in the two-parameter Weibull model.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Price OF, Bradstock RA (2010) The effect of fuel age on the spread of fire in sclerophyll forest in the Sydney region of Australia. International Journal of Wildland Fire 19, 35–45.
The effect of fuel age on the spread of fire in sclerophyll forest in the Sydney region of Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Price OF, Bradstock RA (2011) Quantifying the influence of fuel age and weather on the annual extent of unplanned fires in the Sydney region of Australia. International Journal of Wildland Fire 20, 142–151.

Rego FC (2001) ‘Florestas Públicas.’ (Ministério da Agricultura, Desenvolvimento Rural e Pescas: Lisbon, Portugal)

Salvador R, Lloret F, Pons X, Piñol J (2005) Does fire occurrence modify the probability of being burned again? A null hypothesis test from Mediterranean ecosystems in NE Spain. Ecological Modelling 188, 461–469.
Does fire occurrence modify the probability of being burned again? A null hypothesis test from Mediterranean ecosystems in NE Spain.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Van Wagner C (1987) Development and structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. Canadian Forestry Service, Forestry Technical Report 35. (Ottawa, ON)

van Wilgen BW, Forsyth GG, de Klerk H, Das S, Khuluse S, Schmitz P (2010) Fire management in Mediterranean-climate shrublands: a case study from the Cape fynbos, South Africa. Journal of Applied Ecology 47, 631–638.
Fire management in Mediterranean-climate shrublands: a case study from the Cape fynbos, South Africa.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Vázquez A, Moreno JM (2001) Spatial distribution of forest fires in Sierra de Gredos (Central Spain). Forest Ecology and Management 147, 55–65.
Spatial distribution of forest fires in Sierra de Gredos (Central Spain).Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Vilà M, Lloret F, Ogheri E, Terradas J (2001) Fire–grass feedback in Mediterranean Basin woodlands. Forest Ecology and Management 147, 3–14.
Fire–grass feedback in Mediterranean Basin woodlands.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Vilén T, Fernandes PM (2011) Forest fires in Mediterranean countries: CO2 emissions and mitigation possibilities through prescribed burning. Environmental Management
Forest fires in Mediterranean countries: CO2 emissions and mitigation possibilities through prescribed burning.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |