Development of post-fire crown damage mortality thresholds in ponderosa pine
James F. Fowler A G , Carolyn Hull Sieg A , Joel McMillin B , Kurt K. Allen C , Jose F. Negrón D , Linda L. Wadleigh E , John A. Anhold B and Ken E. Gibson FA USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 2500 S Pine Knoll Drive, Flagstaff, AZ 86001, USA. Email: csieg@fs.fed.us
B USDA Forest Service, Region 3 Forest Health Protection, 2500 S Pine Knoll Drive, Flagstaff, AZ 86001, USA. Email: jmcmillin@fs.fed.us; janhold@fs.fed.us
C USDA Forest Service, Region 2 Forest Health Management, 8221 S Highway 16, Rapid City, SD 57702, USA. Email: kallen@fs.fed.us
D USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 240 W Prospect Street, Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA. Email: jnegron@fs.fed.us
E USDA Forest Service, Region 3 Fire Management, 1824 S Thompson Street, Flagstaff, AZ 86001, USA. Email: lwadleigh@fs.fed.us
F USDA Forest Service, Region 1 Forest Health Protection, PO Box 7669, Missoula, MT 59807, USA. Email: kgibson@fs.fed.us
G Corresponding author. Email: jffowler@fs.fed.us
International Journal of Wildland Fire 19(5) 583-588 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF08193
Submitted: 26 November 2008 Accepted: 17 November 2009 Published: 9 August 2010
Abstract
Previous research has shown that crown scorch volume and crown consumption volume are the major predictors of post-fire mortality in ponderosa pine. In this study, we use piecewise logistic regression models of crown scorch data from 6633 trees in five wildfires from the Intermountain West to locate a mortality threshold at 88% scorch by volume for trees with no crown consumption. For trees with >40% crown consumption volume, linear regression indicates >85% mortality, but for trees with crown consumption volume <40%, there is a statistically significant, linear relationship between increasing crown scorch and increasing probability of mortality. Analysis of an independent 600+ tree dataset from Colorado produced similar results and supports the analysis approach. Crown scorch volume (>85%), crown consumption volume (>40%), and crown consumption between 5 and 40% combined with crown scorch volume >50% mortality thresholds could be incorporated into post-fire marking guidelines for forest management goals.
Additional keywords: crown consumption, crown scorch, logistic regression, marking guidelines, piecewise regression, Pinus ponderosa, statistical models, wildfire.
Acknowledgements
Thanks go to Rudy King, Rocky Mountain Research Station Statistician who provided both the insight and the initial SAS code that made this analysis possible. Funding for this research was provided by USDA Forest Service, Forest Health Protection Special Technology Program Development Program R2–2001–01, Region 1 Forest Health Protection, Region 2 Forest Health Management, Region 3 Forest Health Protection, and Rocky Mountain Research Station. We are grateful for the assistance from Chad Hoffman, Noah Barstatis, Amy Uhlenhopp, John Popp, Dan Long, Denise Hardesty, Kathy Sullivan, Cassie McCraw, Laura Kaye, Matt Jedra, Brian Howell, Steve McKelvey, Kelly Williams, Joleen Atencio and Stacy Marlatt for assisting with data collection and entry.
Bernatchez L , Wilson CC (1998) Comparative phylogeography of nearctic and palearctic fishes. Molecular Ecology 7, 431–452.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Butler BW, Cohen J, Latham DJ, Schuette RD, Sopko P, Shannon KS, Jimenez D , Bradshaw LS (2004) Measurements of radiant emissive power and temperatures in crown fires. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 34, 1577–1587.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Kulman HM (1971) Effects of insect defoliation on growth and mortality of trees. Annual Review of Entomology 16, 289–324.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Michaletz ST , Johnson EA (2006) A heat transfer model of crown scorch in forest fires. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 36, 2839–2851.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Peterson D (1985) Crown scorch volume and scorch height: estimates of post-fire tree condition. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 15, 596–598.
Ryan KC , Reinhardt ED (1988) Predicting post-fire mortality of seven conifers. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 18, 1291–1297.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Wyant JG, Omi PN , Laven RD (1986) Fire induced tree mortality in a Colorado ponderosa pine/Douglas-fir stand. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 32, 49–59.
