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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Contents Vol 15(3)

A 229-year dendroclimatic-inferred record of forest fire activity for the Boreal Shield of Canada

Martin P. Girardin A C F , Yves Bergeron B , Jacques C. Tardif C , Sylvie Gauthier A , Mike D. Flannigan D and Manfred Mudelsee E
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

A Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, 1055 du PEPS, PO Box 10380, Stn. Sainte-Foy, QC G1V 4C7, Canada.

B Groupe de recherche en écologie forestière inter-universitaire (GREFI), Université du Quebec à Montréal, CP 8888, Succ. Centre-Ville, Montréal, QC H3C 3P8, Canada.

C Center for Forest Interdisciplinary Research (C-FIR), University of Winnipeg, 515 Avenue Portage, Winnipeg, MB R3B 2E9, Canada.

D Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, 1219 Queen Street-East, Sault Ste. Marie, ON P6A 2E5, Canada.

E Institute of Meteorology, University of Leipzig, Stephanstrasse 3, 04103 Leipzig, Germany, and Climate Risk Analysis, Wasserweg 2, 06114 Halle, Germany.

F Corresponding author. Email: martin.girardin@rncan.gc.ca

International Journal of Wildland Fire 15(3) 375-388 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF05065
Submitted: 14 June 2005  Accepted: 21 December 2005   Published: 5 September 2006

Abstract

Six independent tree-ring reconstructions of summer drought were calibrated against instrumental fire data to develop a 229-year dendroclimatic-inferred record of fire activity (annual area burned and fire occurrence) on the Boreal Shield, Canada. As a means of validating the statistical reconstructions of the fire activity, a comparison was made with a stand age distribution derived from a regional time-since-last-fire map for an area located at the transition between the mixedwood and coniferous boreal forests of south-western Quebec. Calibration statistics indicated that 31% of the area burned variance and 45% of the fire occurrence variance could be accounted for by the six drought reconstructions. The verification statistics indicated a tendency for the statistical reconstructions of the fire activity to reproduce with confidence both high and relatively low frequency variations in fire. Episodes of succeeding years with important fire activity were estimated for 1789–1796, 1820–1823, 1837–1841, 1862–1866, 1906–1912, 1919–1922, 1933–1938, and 1974–1977. Also estimated were periods of reduced forest fire activity, particularly in the occurrence rate of extreme fire years, from c. 1850 to 1900 and again during the second half of the 20th century. Correlation analysis between the statistical reconstruction of the area burned and the stand age distribution suggested that both proxies shared similar information on the fire activity. Correlation maps, however, indicated that variability in the statistical reconstructions was not necessarily representative of fire activity in all regions of the Boreal Shield.


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is the ratio of the total squared error obtained with the regression estimates and the total squared error obtained using the dependent period mean as the only estimate. This average becomes a standard against which the regression estimation is compared. If the reconstruction does a better job than the average of the dependant period, then the total error of the regression estimate is less, the ratio is less than one, and the RE is positive.

The PM test calculates the products of the deviations and collects the positive and negative products in two separate groups based on their sign. The values of the products in each group are summed, and the means computed. The difference between the absolute values of the two means M+ − M− can be tested for significance using the t statistics:

E7

where n+ and n− are the number of positive and negative products and S+2 and S−2 are the corresponding variance.