Spatio-temporal analysis of wildfire ignitions in the St Johns River Water Management District, Florida

Abstract

We analyse the spatio-temporal structure of wildfire ignitions in the St Johns River Water Management District in north-eastern Florida. We show, using tools to analyse point patterns (e.g. the L-function), that wildfire events occur in clusters. Clustering of these events correlates with irregular distribution of fire ignitions, including lightning and human sources, and fuels on the landscape. In addition, we define a relative clustering index that summarizes the amount of clustering over various spatial scales. We carry our analysis in three steps: purely temporal, purely spatial, and spatio-temporal. Our results show that arson and lightning are the leading causes of wildfires in this region and that ignitions by railroad, lightning, and arson are spatially more clustered than ignitions by other accidental causes.