Impact of antecedent climate on fire regimes in coastal California*
Jon E. KeeleyU.S. Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, Sequoia-Kings Canyon Field Station, Three Rivers, CA 93271-9651, USA, and Department of Organismic Biology, Ecology and Evolution, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA. Telephone: +1 559 565 3170; fax: +1 559 565 3177; email: jon_keeley@usgs.gov
International Journal of Wildland Fire 13(2) 173-182 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF03037
Submitted: 21 March 2003 Accepted: 7 November 2003 Published: 29 June 2004
Abstract
Severe fire weather is a major determinant of fire size in coastal California; however, it is unclear to what extent antecedent climate also controls fire activity. This study investigates the relationship between fire activity and climate in central coastal and southern California. Climate variables included the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), total monthly precipitation, mean monthly maximum temperature and the autumn and winter Southern Oscillation Indices (SOI). For both the central coast and the south coast regions there was no significant relationship between growing season PDSI, precipitation or temperature and number of fires. When examined by season, summer temperatures were positively correlated with number of fires in the central coast and autumn PDSI and precipitation were negatively correlated with fire occurrence in the south coast region. Area burned was not correlated with any current year climate variables in southern California although, in the central coast, drought during spring and autumn were correlated, but explained less than 10% of the variation in the area burned. Although there was a modest relationship between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and local climate parameters, there was only a relatively weak relationship with fire activity. The importance of autumn foehn winds is illustrated by the observation that large fires occur most commonly during the autumn, regardless of PDSI. Antecedent climate, however, does appear to play some role in determining the length of the fire season on these landscape as PDSI is consistently related to the occurrence of large fires that occur before or after the autumn months.
Additional keywords: ENSO; drought; foehn winds.
Acknowledgements
I thank Anne Pfaff for assistance updating the database and Julio Betancourt, Steve Schwarzbach and Tom Swetnam for comments on an earlier draft and Julie Yee for helpful commentary on statistical methods.
Allen CD, Savage M, Falk DA, Suckling KF, Swetnam TW, Schulke T, Stacey PB, Morgan P, Hoffman M , Klingel JT (2002) Ecological restoration of southwestern ponderosa pine ecosystems: a broad perspective. Ecological Applications 12, 1418–1433.
Davis FW , Michaelson JC (1995) Sensitivity of fire regime in chaparral ecosystems to global climate change. In
Davis LS (1965) ‘The economics of wildfire protection with emphasis on fuelbreak systems.’ (Division of Forestry, Resources Agency, State of California: Sacramento, CA)
Diaz HF , Kiladis GN (1992) Atmospheric teleconnections associated with the extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation. In
Gershunov A, Barmett TP, Cayan DR, Tubbs T , Goddard L (2000) Predicting and downscaling ENSO impacts on intraseasonal precipitation statistics in California: the 1997/98 event. Journal of Hydrometeorology 1, 201–210.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Harrison M , Meindl CF (2001) A statistical relationship between El Nino-Southern Oscillation and Florida wildfire occurrence. Physical Geography 22, 187–203.
Heyerdahl EK, Brubaker LB , Agee JK (2002) Annual and decadal climate forcing of historical fire regimes in the interior Pacific Northwest, USA. Holocene 12, 597–604.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Johnson EA , Miyanishi K (1995) The need for consideration of fire behavior and effects in prescribed burning. Restoration Ecology 3, 271–278.
Johnson EA, Miyanishi K , Bridge SRJ (2001) Wildfire regime in the boreal forest and the suppression–fuel build-up idea. Conservation Biology 15, 1554–1557.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Jones and Stokes Associates (1987) ‘Sliding toward extinction: the state of California's natural heritage, 1987.’ (California Nature Conservancy: San Francisco, CA)
Keeley J (2002) Fire management of California shrubland landscapes. Environmental Management 29, 395–408.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | PubMed |
Keeley JE , Bond WJ (2001) On incorporating fire into our thinking about natural ecosystems: a response to Saha and Howe. American Naturalist 158, 664–670.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Keeley JE , Fotheringham CJ (2001) History and management of crown-fire ecosystems: a summary and response. Conservation Biology 15, 1561–1567.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Keeley JE , Fotheringham CJ (2003) Impact of past, present, and future fire regimes on North American Mediterranean shrublands. In
Keeley JE, Fotheringham CJ , Morais M (1999) Reexamining fire suppression impacts on brushland fire regimes. Science 284, 1829–1832.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | PubMed |
Kinney W , Howitt D (1984) Economics and policy of shrubland management. ‘Proceedings of the chaparral ecosystems research conference’. (University of California: Davis)
Kitzberger T (2002) ENSO as a forewarning tool of regional fire occurrence in northern Patagonia, Argentina. International Journal of Wildland Fire 11, 33–39.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Kitzberger T, Swetnam TW , Veblen TT (2001) Inter-hemispheric synchrony of forest fires and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Global Ecology and Biogeography 10, 315–326.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Kitzberger T , Veblen TT (2003) Influences of climate on fire in northern Patagonia, Argentina. In
Mo KC , Higgins RW (1998) Tropical influences on California precipitation. Journal of Climate 11, 412–430.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Moritz MA (1997) Analyzing extreme disturbance events: fire in the Los Padres National Forest. Ecological Applications 7, 1252–1262.
Moritz MA (1999). ‘Controls on disturbance regime dynamics: fire in Los Padres National Forest.’ Ph.D. dissertation, University of California, Santa Barbara.
Moritz MA (2003) Spatiotemporal analysis of controls on shrubland fire regimes: age dependency and fire hazard. Ecology 84, 351–361.
Moritz MA, Keeley JE, Johnson EA , Schaffner AA (2004) Testing a basic assumption of fire management: How important is fuel age? Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 2, 67–72.
Palmer WC (1965) ‘Meteorological drought.’ Research Paper No.45 (U.S. Department of Commerce, Weather Bureau: Washington, D.C.)
Pitt MD , Heady HF (1978) Responses of annual vegetation to temperature and rainfall patterns in northern California. Ecology 59, 336–350.
Quinn GP, Keough MJ (2002) ‘Experimental design and data analysis for biologists.’ (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK)
Schonher T , Nicholson SE (1989) The relationship between California rainfall and ENSO events. Journal of Climate 2, 1258–1269.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Schroeder MJ (1964) ‘Synoptic weather types associated with critical fire weather.’ (Institute for Applied Technology, National Bureau of Standards, U.S. Department of Commerce: Washington, D.C.)
Simard AJ, Haines DA , Main WA (1985) Relations between El Nino/Southern Oscillation anomalies and wildland fire activity in the United States. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 36, 93–104.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Stahle DW, D’Arrigo RD, Krusic PJ, Cleaveland MK , Cook ER (1998) Experimental dendroclimatic reconstruction of the Southern Oscillation. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79, 2137–2152.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Swetnam TW , Baisan CH (2003) Tree-ring reconstructions of fire and climate history in the Sierra Nevada and southwestern United States. In
Swetnam TW , Betancourt JL (1990) Fire–Southern Oscillation relations in the southwestern United States. Science 249, 1017–1020.
Swetnam TW , Betancourt JL (1998) Mesoscale disturbance and ecological response to decadal climatic variability in the American Southwest. Journal of Climate 11, 3128–3147.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Westerling AL, Gershunov A, Cayan DR , Barnett TP (2002) Long lead statistical forecasts of area burned in western U.S. wildfires by ecosystem province. International Journal of Wildland Fire 11, 257–266.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Westerling AL, Gershunov A, Brown TJ, Cayan DR , Dettinger MD (2003) Climate and wildfire in the Western United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society ,
Whelan RJ (2002) Managing fire regimes for conservation and property protection: an Australian response. Conservation Biology 16, 1659–1661.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
* This paper was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and therefore is in the public domain and not subject to copyright.
