Burden of female infertility in China from 1990 to 2019: a temporal trend analysis and forecasting, and comparison with the global level
Jingwei Yu A , Yanhong Fu B , Lei Zeng C , Pengpeng Xie D , Limei Li E and Yongxia Zheng
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Abstract
Infertility is a common reproductive disease that affects not only individuals and families, but also the growth of the social population. Hence, understanding the burden of female infertility in China and worldwide is of great significance for the development of infertility prevention and treatment strategies.
The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD 2019) Data Resources were used to collect and collate relevant data on female infertility in China and worldwide from 1990 to 2019. The difference in the number, age-standardised prevalence rate (ASPR), disability-adjusted life years and age-standardised disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR) of women with infertility in different periods and geographical areas were analysed. The autoregressive integrated moving average method was used to predict the ASPR and ASDR of female infertility in China and worldwide in the next 11 years.
In the past 30 years, the number of female infertility cases increased by 7.06 million in China and 56.71 million worldwide. The corresponding average annual increase of ASPR was 10.10% and 7.28%, respectively, and that of ASDR was 0.08% and 0.79%, respectively. In addition, there are differences in age and time between Chinese and global female infertility. In 1990, the crude prevalence rate of female infertility was the highest in women aged 40–44 years and 35–39 years in China and worldwide, respectively. In 2019, the crude prevalence rate of female infertility was still the highest in women aged 40–44 years in China, whereas that around the world reached the highest in women aged 30–34 years, which was significantly earlier. The forecast for the next 11 years suggests that the ASPR and ASDR for female infertility in China will first rise and then decline, but the overall magnitude of change is not very significant, whereas the ASPR and ASDR for female infertility globally are still on the rise. The ASPR value of female infertility is expected to be 5025.56 in 100 000 persons in China and 3725.51 in 100 000 persons worldwide by 2030. The ASDR value of female infertility is expected to be 26.16 in 100 000 persons in China and 19.96 in 100 000 persons worldwide by 2030.
The burden of female infertility is still increasing in China and worldwide. Therefore, it is of great significance to pay more attention to infertile women, and advocate a healthy lifestyle to reduce the burden of disease for infertile women.
Keywords: ARIMA, age-standardised DALYs rate, age-standardised prevalence rate, disability-adjusted life years, forecast, GBD, infertility, trend.
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