Drivers of California’s changing wildfires: a state-of-the-knowledge synthesis
Glen MacDonald A * , Tamara Wall B * , Carolyn A. F. Enquist C * , Sarah R. LeRoy D * , John B. Bradford E , David D. Breshears F , Timothy Brown B , Daniel Cayan G , Chunyu Dong H , Donald A. Falk
F , Erica Fleishman I , Alexander Gershunov G , Molly Hunter F , Rachel A. Loehman J , Phillip J. van Mantgem K , Beth Rose Middleton L , Hugh D. Safford M N , Mark W. Schwartz O and Valerie Trouet P
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A University of California, Los Angeles, Bunche Hall 1152, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA.
B Desert Research Institute, 2215 Raggio Parkway, Reno, NV 89512, USA. Email: tim.brown@dri.edu
C US Geological Survey, Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center, 1064 E Lowell Street, Suite N427, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.
D Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center, University of Arizona, 1064 E. Lowell Street, Suite N446, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.
E Southwest Biological Science Center, US Geological Survey, Flagstaff, AZ 86001, USA.
F School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA. Email: mollyhunter@u.arizona.edu
G Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, CA 92093-0230, USA. Email: dcayan@ucsd.edu, sasha@ucsd.edu
H School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai 519082, China. Email: dongchy7@mail.sysu.edu.cn
I College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA. Email: erica.fleishman@oregonstate.edu
J Alaska Science Center, US Geological Survey, 4210 University Drive, Anchorage, AK 99508, USA. Email: rloehman@usgs.gov
K Western Ecological Research Center, US Geological Survey, 1655 Heindon Road, Arcata, CA 95521, USA. Email: pvanmantgem@usgs.gov
L Department of Native American Studies, UC Davis, CA 95616, USA. Email: brmiddleton@ucdavis.edu
M Vibrant Planet, Incline Village, NV 89450, USA.
N Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA. Email: hdsafford@ucdavis.edu
O University of California, Davis, 1 Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, USA. Email: Mwschwartz@ucdavis.edu
P Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, 1215 E. Lowell Street, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA. Email: trouet@arizona.edu
International Journal of Wildland Fire 32(7) 1039-1058 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF22155
Submitted: 8 July 2022 Accepted: 7 April 2023 Published: 22 May 2023
© 2023 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of IAWF. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND)
Abstract
Over the past four decades, annual area burned has increased significantly in California and across the western USA. This trend reflects a confluence of intersecting factors that affect wildfire regimes. It is correlated with increasing temperatures and atmospheric vapour pressure deficit. Anthropogenic climate change is the driver behind much of this change, in addition to influencing other climate-related factors, such as compression of the winter wet season. These climatic trends and associated increases in fire activity are projected to continue into the future. Additionally, factors related to the suppression of the Indigenous use of fire, aggressive fire suppression and, in some cases, changes in logging practices or fuel management intensity, collectively have produced large build-ups of vegetative fuels in some ecosystems. Human activities provide the most common ignition source for California’s wildfires. Despite its human toll, fire provides a range of ecological benefits to many California ecosystems. Given the diversity of vegetation types and fire regimes found in the state, addressing California’s wildfire challenges will require multi-faceted and locally targeted responses in terms of fuel management, human-caused ignitions, building regulations and restrictions, integrative urban and ecosystem planning, and collaboration with Tribes to support the reinvigoration of traditional burning regimes.
Keywords: California, climate change, fire suppression, fuel management, ignition sources, Indigenous burning, vegetation, wildfire, wildland fire, wildland–urban Interface.
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