Climate change, sea-level rise and the Gippsland shoreline
Kathleen L. McInnes
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Abstract
Global warming due to the accumulation of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is driving changes in the climate system that will have serious implications for global coastlines. Sea-level rise is a major concern for low-lying coastal communities. Oceans and ice caps have long response times to global warming, and coastal environments are increasingly likely to experience hazards such as coastal inundation and erosion over the coming decades. Sea levels will not increase uniformly due to a range of physical processes. In the vicinity of the Gippsland coastline, sea-level rise will be slightly higher than the global-averaged sea-level rise because of the influence of the East Australian Current on regional sea levels. Global warming is also driving tropical expansion and a southward shift in the major climate and weather systems of the planet. Associated with these changes is an enhancement of wind speeds in the westerly wind belt which is causing changes in the wave climate of the Southern Ocean. This, in turn, may influence the coastline of southern Australia. The warming of the oceans and atmosphere is intensifying severe weather systems through greater wind speeds and rainfall totals. These various factors will cause global to local scale changes, with a potentially compounding effect on coastal hazards as a result of changes in local sea levels, wind and wave climate, severe weather systems and extreme sea levels in the Gippsland Lakes region.
Keywords: climate change, erosion, inundation, sea-level acceleration, sea-level extremes, sea-level rise, storm surge, subsidence, wave climate.
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