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Journal of the Australian Rangeland Society
RESEARCH ARTICLE (Open Access)

Non-compliance and under-performance in Australian human-induced regeneration projects

Andrew Macintosh A * , Megan C. Evans https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6763-310X B * , Don Butler A * , Pablo Larraondo C , Chamith Edirisinghe C , Kristen B. Hunter https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5678-4620 D , Maldwyn J. Evans A E , Dean Ansell A , Marie Waschka A and David Lindenmayer A E
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

A The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia.

B University of New South Wales Canberra at ADFA, School of Business, Canberra, ACT, Australia.

C Haizea Analytics, Canberra, ACT, Australia.

D University of New South Wales - Kensington Campus, School of Mathematics & Statistics, Kensington, NSW, Australia.

E Australian National University, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Canberra, ACT, Australia.

The Rangeland Journal 46, RJ24024 https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ24024
Submitted: 3 July 2024  Accepted: 24 September 2024  Published: 10 October 2024

© 2024 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of the Australian Rangeland Society. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND)

Abstract

The ‘boom-and-bust’ nature of rangelands makes them ill-suited to nature-based solutions (NbS) involving carbon sequestration in vegetation and soils. The variability in these ecosystems makes it difficult to determine whether carbon stock changes are attributable to project activities, creating additionality risks. Low and variable rainfall also means carbon stock increases will often be impermanent, being susceptible to reversals in droughts, a risk magnified by climate change. The small potential for gains per unit area over vast regions makes it difficult to accurately measure carbon stock changes at low cost. This creates pressure to trade accuracy for simplicity in measurement approaches, increasing the risk of errors. Despite these risks, rangelands have been advanced as suitable for offset projects because of low opportunity cost and a perception they are extensively degraded. The most prominent example globally is human-induced regeneration (HIR) projects under the Australian carbon credit unit (ACCU) scheme, which are purporting to regenerate permanent even-aged native forests (≥20% canopy cover from trees ≥2 metres high) across millions of hectares of largely uncleared rangelands, predominantly by reducing grazing pressure. Previous research found limited forest regeneration in the credited areas of these projects, and that most of the observed changes in tree cover were attributable to factors other than the project activities. Here we extend this research by evaluating compliance of a sample of 116 HIR projects with regulatory requirements and their performance in increasing sequestration in regeneration. The results suggest most HIR projects are non-compliant with key regulatory requirements that are essential to project integrity, and have had minimal impact on woody vegetation cover in credited areas. The findings point to major administrative and governance failings in Australia’s carbon credit scheme, and a significant missed opportunity to restore biodiversity-rich woodlands and forests in previously cleared lands via legitimate carbon offset projects.

Keywords: carbon markets, climate change, environmental governance, forest carbon, generalised additive mixed models, nature-based solutions, rangeland management, revegetation.

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