Using biological survey data when selecting Marine Protected Areas: an operational framework and associated risks

Abstract

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are one of the main tools for protecting marine biodiversity, but they are often selected on the basis of little or no ecological data. As a result, there is a risk that MPAs will not successfully protect marine biodiversity. We propose an operational framework to help prioritize the need for information, and to direct the subsequent collection of appropriate biological data. The framework consists of 7 steps: (1) formulating clearly-defined objectives, (2) a broad-scale classification based on easily accessible surrogates, (3) identifying biological variables for detailed survey, (4) assessing the utility of surrogates, (5) designing and implementing the biological survey, (6) modelling and using inferential statistics to optimize the use of existing knowledge, and (7) validating candidate areas. Each step in the framework involves identifying areas of uncertainty, and the risks that a MPA will fail to achieve its intended objectives. The aim of our operational framework is to make the risks and uncertainties clear, and to force decisions to be made to minimise their potential impact on the outcome of the MPA selection process. We identify four key ecological uncertainties in MPA identification: (1) the reliability of surrogates, (2) spatial uncertainty in survey data, (3) temporal uncertainty in the patterns of the biodiversity in the MPA, and (4) uncertainty in the degree to which important ecological processes will be maintained. We conclude that the key to success in a MPA selection process is the use of clearly specified objectives for the MPA and an explicit assessment of uncertainties involved. We contend that without a competent ecological basis, new MPAs may be little more than the political exercises to appease lobby groups, and are unlikely to be effective tools in protecting marine biodiversity from continuing decay.