Evaluating the shifts in rainfall and pasture-growth variabilities across the pastoral zone of Australia during 1910–2010
David H. Cobon
A C , Louis Kouadio A , Shahbaz Mushtaq A , Chelsea Jarvis A , John Carter B , Grant Stone B and Peter Davis A
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, West Street, Toowoomba, Qld 4350, Australia.
B Ecosciences Precinct, Department of Environment and Science, Queensland Government, Boggo Road, Brisbane, Qld 4102, Australia.
C Corresponding author. Email: David.Cobon@usq.edu.au
Crop and Pasture Science 70(7) 634-647 https://doi.org/10.1071/CP18482
Submitted: 17 October 2018 Accepted: 02 May 2019 Published: 5 August 2019
Journal Compilation © CSIRO 2019 Open Access CC BY-NC-ND
Abstract
Interannual rainfall variability in Australia is a source of risk within agricultural industries. Insights into changes to rainfall and pasture-growth variabilities are essential to inform adaptation strategies for climate risk management within the grazing industry. We investigated shifts in rainfall and pasture-growth variabilities between the periods 1910–1960 and 1961–2010 for the pastoral zone in Australia. Rainfall variability was also assessed for the high-rainfall and wheat–sheep zones. An index of variability was calculated by using gridded rainfall and pasture-growth data for both periods. The percentage change was then calculated as the difference in variation between the two periods. Overall, the variability of annual rainfall has significantly increased (P < 0.01) between the two periods for the pastoral zone. Pastoral regions in the Northern Territory had the greatest increases in pasture-growth variability, with 62–85% of the area affected by a significant increase in variability. Between the periods 1910–1960 and 1961–2010 across the wheat–sheep zone, annual rainfall variability significantly decreased (P < 0.01), with 70% of the area having a negative change, whereas for the high-rainfall zone, the variability did not change significantly. Monitoring ongoing trends in rainfall and pasture-growth variability is important to inform strategic grazing management. Management practices to mitigate the impacts of increased variability in pastoral regions are discussed.
Additional keywords: climate variability, climate effects on pasture systems.
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