Assessing climate-driven glacial retreat, snow-cover reduction and GLOF risks: implications for water resource management amid rising global temperatures and CO2
Muhammad Yahya A , Uzma Noreen A , Kotb A. Attia B * , Fariha Jabeen
A * , Afifa Aslam C , Navid Anjum A , Asim Abbasi D E , A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
Abstract
The consequences of climate change, including alterations in snow and glacier patterns and rising temperatures, pose a risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), which can have cross-border impacts, leading to the loss of life and property downstream.
This research focused on the assessment of changes in snow cover within Chitral district imposed by temperature increase.
ArcGIS and Origin programs were used in this research to study the glacier pattern of Chitral.
Therer was a significant increase of 266.7% in urban development and an expansion of 135.9 km2 in agricultural areas within this remote mountainous region. The findings of the study show that in the year 2000, >51.6% of Chitral district’s total land was covered by snow during early winter. However, this coverage drastically declined to ~6.8% by 2008. Across the initial two 4-year periods, ~44.7% (5694.6 km2) of the glaciated area transitioned to barren rock, whereas the overall reduction in snow-covered areas accounted for ~43.3% (5514.6 km2).
Owing to the increasing stress on freshwater resources, it is essential to conduct thorough analyses and monitoring of snow patterns to ensure sustainable freshwater availability and effective environmental risk management.
This study emphasises the critical consequences of climate-driven glacial retreat, waning snow cover and increased risks of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) for the management of water resources with the rise in global CO2 and temperatures levels. These changes threaten the timing and availability of water supply, with impacts on agriculture, ecosystem and hydropower. Effective adaptation measures and sustainable management practices are crucial to alleviate these risks and ensure water security in a warming world.
Keywords: climate change, CO2, freshwater reserves, glaciers, GLOF, sustainability, temperature variations, water conservation.
References
Akhtar M, Ahmad N, Booji MJ (2008) The impact of climate change on the water resources of Hindukush–Karakorum–Himalaya region under different glacier coverage scenarios. Journal of Hydrology 355(1–4), 148-163.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Arora NK, Mishra I (2022) Sustainable development goal 6: global water security. Environmental Sustainability 5, 271-275.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Aryal JP, Jat ML, Sapkota TB, Khatri-Chhetri A, Kassie M, Rahut DB, Maharjan S (2018) Adoption of multiple climate-smart agricultural practices in the gangetic plains of Bihar, India. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 10, 407-427.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Azam MF, Wagnon P, Berthier E, Vincent C, Fujita K, Kargel JS (2018) Review of the status and mass changes of Himalayan Karakoram glaciers. Journal of Glaciology 64(243), 61-74.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Azam MF, Kargel JS, Shea JM, Nepal S, Haritashya UK, Srivastava S, Maussion F, Qazi N, Chevallier P, Dimri AP, Kulkarni AV, Cogley JG, Bahuguna I (2021) Glaciohydrology of the Himalaya–Karakoram. Sciences 373(6557), eabf3668.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Azmat M, Wahab A, Huggel C, Qamar M, Hussain E, Ahmad S, Waheed A (2020) Climatic and hydrological projections to changing climate under CORDEX-South Asia experiments over the Karakoram–Hindukush–Himalayan water towers. Science of The Total Environment 703, 135010.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |
Bahr DB, Meier MF, Peckham SD (1997) The physical basis of glacier volume-area scaling. Journal of Geophysical Research 102, 20355-20362.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Bajracharya SR, Maharjan SB, Shrestha F (2014) The status and decadal change of glaciers in Bhutan from the 1980s to 2010 based on satellite data. Annals of Glaciology 55, 159-166.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Baloch T, Kulkarni A, Kääb A, Huggel C, Paul F, Cogley JG, Frey H, Kargel JS, Fujita K, Scheel M, Bajracharya S, Stoffel M (2012) The state and fate of Himalayan glaciers. Sciences 336(6079), 310-314.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Batbaatar J, Gillespie AR, Fink D, Matmon A, Fujioka T (2018) Asynchronous glaciations in arid continental climate. Quaternary Science Reviews 182, 1-19.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Bazai NA, Cui P, Carling PA, Wang H, Hassan J, Liu D, Zhang G, Jin W (2021) Increasing glacial lake outburst flood hazard in response to surge glaciers in the Karakoram. Earth-Science Reviews 212, 103432.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Bocchiola D, Diolaiuti G (2013) Recent (1980–2009) evidence of climate change in the upper Karakoram, Pakistan. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 113, 611-641.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Bookhagen B, Burbank DW (2006) Topography, relief, and TRMM-derived rainfall variations along the Himalaya. Geophysical Research Letters 33(8), L08405.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Chen M, Wang C, Wang X, Fu J, Gong P, Yan J, Yu Z, Yan F, Nawab J (2019) Release of perfluoroalkyl substances from melting glacier of the Tibetan Plateau: insights into the impact of global warming on the cycling of emerging pollutants. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 124(13), 7442-7456.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Chowdhury A, Sharma MC, De SK, Debnath M (2021) Glacier changes in the Chhombo Chhu Watershed of the Tista basin between 1975 and 2018, the Sikkim Himalaya, India. Earth System Science Data 13, 2923-2944.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Debnath M, Sharma MC, Syiemlieh HJ (2019) Glacier dynamics in Changme Khangpu Basin, Sikkim Himalaya, India, between 1975 and 2016. Geosciences 9, 259.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Du ZH, Wang L, Wei ZQ, Liu JF, Lin PL, Lin JH, Li YZ, Jin ZZ, Chen JZ, Wang XX, Qin X, Xiao CD (2022) CH4 and CO2 observations from a melting high mountain glacier, Laohugou Glacier No. 12. Advances in Climate Change Research 13(1), 146-155.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Farinotti D, Immerzeel WW, de Kok RJ, Quincey DJ, Dehecq A (2020) Manifestations and mechanisms of the Karakoram glacier anomaly. Nature Geoscience 13, 8-16.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |
Forsythe N, Fowler H, Li X-F, Blenkinsop S, Pritchard D (2017) Karakoram temperature and glacial melt driven by regional atmospheric circulation variability. Nature Climate Change 7, 664-670.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Fowler HJ, Archer DR (2006) Conflicting signals of climatic change in the upper Indus Basin. Journal of Climate 19, 4276-4293.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Gul J, Muhammad S, Liu S-Y, Ullah S, Ahmad S, Hayat H, Tahir AA (2020) Spatio-temporal changes in the six major glaciers of the Chitral River basin (Hindukush Region of Pakistan) between 2001 and 2018. Journal of Mountain Science 17, 572-587.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Gurung DR, Kulkarni AV, Giriraj A, Aung KS, Shrestha B, Srinivasan J (2011) Changes in seasonal snow cover in Hindu Kush–Himalayan region. The Cryosphere Discuss 5, 755-777.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Hashmi MZR, Masood A, Mushtaq H, Bukhari Syed AA, Ahmad B, Tahir A (2019) Exploring climate change impacts during the first half of the 21st century on flow regime of the transboundary Kabul River in the Hindukush Region. Journal of Water and Climate Change 11, 1521-1538.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Hasson S, Saeed F, Böhner J, Schleussner CF (2019) Water availability in Pakistan from Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalayan watersheds at 1.5°C and 2°C Paris Agreement Targets. Advances in Water Resources 131, 103365.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Hewitt K (2007) Tributary glacier surges: an exceptional concentration at Panmah Glacier, Karakoram Himalaya. Journal of Glaciology 53, 181-188.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Huang X, Deng J, Wang W, Feng Q, Liang T (2017) Impact of climate and elevation on snow cover using integrated remote sensing snow products in Tibetan Plateau. Remote Sensing of Environment 190, 274-288.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Immerzeel WW, Droogers P, de Jong SM, Bierkens MFP (2009) Large-scale monitoring of snow cover and runoff simulation in Himalayan River basins using remote sensing. Remote Sensing of Environment 113(1), 40-49.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Immerzeel WW, van Beek LPH, Bierkens MFP (2010) Climate change will affect the Asian water towers. Sciences 328, 1382-1385.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Imran M, Ahmad U (2021) Geospatially analysing the dynamics of the Khurdopin Glacier surge using multispectral and temporal remote sensing and ground observations. Natural Hazards 108, 847-866.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Javed A, Khan I (2012) Land use/land cover change due to mining activities in Singrauli industrial belt, Madhya Pradesh using remote sensing and GIS. Journal of Environmental Research And Development 6, 834-843.
| Google Scholar |
Javed A, Ahmad R, Khan I (2021) Impact of coal mining on land use/landcover in Singrauli coalfield, Central India: a study using Remote Sensing and GIS. Global Scientific Journal 9, 2253-2275.
| Google Scholar |
Kapnick SB, Delworth TL, Ashfaq M, Malyshev S, Milly PCD (2014) Snowfall less sensitive to warming in Karakoram than in Himalayas due to a unique seasonal cycle. Nature Geoscience 7, 834-840.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Khadka D, Babel MS, Shrestha S, Tripathi NK (2014) Climate change impact on glacier and snow melt and runoff in Tamakoshi basin in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region. Journal of Hydrology 511(1–4), 49-60.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Khan A, Kong W, Khan S, Nawab J, Khan MI (2023) Diversity and succession of chemolithoautotrophic microbial community along a recently deglaciation chronosequence on the Tibetan Plateau. FEMS Microbiology Ecology 99(7), fiad066.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Khatoon R, Hussain I, Anwar M, Nawaz MA (2017) Diet selection of snow leopard (Panthera uncia) in Chitral, Pakistan. Turkish Journal of Zoology 41, 914-923.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Kong W, Dolhi JM, Chiuchiolo A, Priscu J, Morgan-Kiss RM (2012) Evidence of form II RubisCO (cbbM) in a perennially ice-covered Antarctic lake. FEMS Microbiology Ecology 82, 491-500.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |
Krishnan R, Shrestha AB, Ren G, Rajbhandari R, Saeed S, Sanjay J, Syed MA, Vellore R, Xu Y, You Q, Ren Y (2019) Unravelling climate change in the Hindu Kush Himalaya: rapid warming in the mountains and increasing extremes. In ‘The Hindu Kush Himalaya assessment: mountains, climate change, sustainability and people’. (Eds P Wester, A Mishra, A Mukherji, AB Shrestha) pp. 57–97. (Springer International Publishing: Cham, Switzerland)
Lamarche-Gagnon G, Wadham JL, Lollar BS, Arndt S, Fietzek P, Beaoton AD, Tedstone AJ, Telling J, Bagshaw EA, Hawking JR, Kohler TJ, Zarsky JD, Mowlem MC, Anesio AM, Stibal M (2019) Greenland melt drivers continuous export of methane from the ice-sheetbed. Nature 565, 73-77.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |
Li C, Yan F, Kang S, Chen P, Hu Z, Han X, Zhang G, Gao S, Qu B, Sillanpaa M (2017) Deposition and light absorption characteristics of precipitation dissolved organic carbon (DOC) at three remote stations in the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, China. Science of The Total Environment 605–606, 1039-1046.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Liu YS, Qin X, Chen JZ, Li ZL, Du WT, Guo WQ (2018) Variations of Laohugou Glacier No. 12 in the western Qilian Mountains, China, from 1957 to 2015. Journal of Mountain Science 15, 25-32.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Lutz A, Immerzeel WW, Kraaijenbrink PDA, Shrestha AB, Bierkens MFP (2016) Climate change impacts on the upper indus hydrology: sources, shifts and extremes. PLoS ONE 11, e0165630.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |
Mare WK (1997) Abrupt mid-twentieth-century decline in Antartic sea-ice extent from whaling records. Nature 389, 57-60.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Mazhar N, Amjad D, Javid K, Siddiqui R, Nawaz MA, Butt ZS (2021) Mapping fluctuations of hispar glacier, karakoram, using normalized difference snow index (NDSI) and normalized difference principal component snow index (NDSPCSI). International Journal of Economic and Environmental Geology 11, 48-55.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Menéndez P, Losada IJ, Torres-Ortega S, Narayan S, Beck MW (2020) The global food protection benefits of mangroves. Scientific Reports 10, 4404.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Michaud AB, Dore JE, Achberger AM, Christner BC, Mitchell AC, Skidmore ML, Vick-Majors TJ, Priscu JC (2017) Microbial oxidation as a methane sink beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Nature Geoscience 10, 582-586.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Moazzam MFU, Bae J, Lee BG (2022) Impact of climate change on spatio-temporal distribution of glaciers in Western Karakoram Region since 1990: a case study of central Karakoram National Park. Water 14, 2968.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (Eds) (2007) ‘Climate Change 2007 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.’ (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA)
Pepin N, Bradley RS, Diaz HF, Baraer M, Caceres EB, Forsythe N, Fowler H, Greenwood G, Hashmi MZ, Liu XD, Miller JR, Ning L, Ohmura A, Palazzi E, Rangwala I, Schöner W, Severskiy I, Shahgedanova M, Wang MB, Williamson SN, Yang DQ (2015) Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world. Nature Climate Change 5, 424-430.
| Google Scholar |
Pothula SK, Adams BJ (2022) Community assembly in the wake of glacial retreat: a meta-analysis. Global Change Biology 28, 6973-6991.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |
Prakash A, Gupta RP (1998) Land-use mapping and change detection in a coal mining area – a case study in the Jharia coalfield, India. International Journal of Remote Sensing 19, 391-410.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Qasim M, Khan M, Rashid W (2023) Spatial and temporal analyses of land use changes with special focus on seasonal variation in snow cover in District Chitral; a Hindu Kush Mountain region of Pakistan. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment 29, 100902.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Rasul G, Chaudhry QZ, Mahmood A, Hyder KW, Dahe Q (2011) Glaciers and Glacial Lakes under changing climate in Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Meteorology 8, 1-8.
| Google Scholar |
Raza M, Hussain D, Rasul G (2016) Climatic variability and linear trend models for the six major regions of Gilgit–Baltistan, Pakistan. Life and Environmental Sciences 53, 129-136.
| Google Scholar |
Rowan AV, Quincey DJ, Gibson MJ, Glasser NF, Westoby MJ, Irvine-Fynn TDL, Porter PR, Hambrey MJ (2018) The sustainability of water resources in High Mountain Asia in the context of recent and future glacier change. Geological Society, London, Special Publications 462, 189-204.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Rysgaard S, Mortensen J, Pedersen TJ, Sorensen LL, Lennert K, Sogaard DH, Arendt KE, Blicher ME, Sejr MK, Bendtsen J (2012) High air–sea CO2 uptake rates in nearshore and shelf areas of southern Greenland: temporal and spatial variability. Marine Chemistry 128–129, 26-33.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Sabin TP, Krishnan R, Vellore R, Priya P, Borgaonkar HP, Singh BB, Sagar A (2020) Climate change over the Himalayas. In ‘Assessment of climate change over the Indian Region’. (Eds R Krishnan, J Sanjay, C Gnanaseelan, M Mujumdar, A Kulkarni, S Chakraborty) pp. 207–222. (Springer) 10.1007/978-981-15-4327-2_11
Sabine C (2014) Ask the experts: the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Carbon Management 5, 17-25.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Scherler D, Bookhagen B, Strecker MR (2011) Spatially variable response of Himalayan glaciers to climate change affected by debris cover. Nature Geoscience 4, 156-159.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Shafique M, Faiz B, Bacha AS, Ullah S (2018) Evaluating glacier dynamics using temporal remote sensing images: a case study of Hunza Valley, northern Pakistan. Environmental Earth Sciences 77, 162.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Singh P, Kumar N (1997) Impact assessment of climate change on the hydrological response of a snow and glacier melt runoff dominated Himalayan river. Journal of Hydrology 193(1–4), 316-350.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Singh P, Haritashya UK, Kumar N, Singh Y (2006) Hydrological characteristics of the Gangotri glacier, central Himalayas, India. Journal of Hydrology 327(1–2), 55-67.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Sun X, Wang K, Kang S, Guo J, Zhang G, Huang J, Cong Z, Sun S, Zhang Q (2017) The role of melting alpine glaciers in mercury export and transport: an intensive sampling campaign in the Qugaqie Basin, inland Tibetan Plateau. Environmental Pollution 220, 936-945.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |
Syed Z, Ahmad S, Dahri ZH, Azmat M, Shoaib M, Inam A, Qamar MU, Hussain SZ, Ahmad S (2022) Hydroclimatology of the Chitral River in the Indus Basin under changing climate. Atmosphere 13, 295.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
World Meteorological Organization (2011) The Global Climate 2001–2010: a decade of climate extremes. WMO-No 1103. (WMO: Geneva, Switzerland) Available at https://library.wmo.int/records/item/49934-the-global-climate-2001-2010-a-decade-of-climate-extremes
Zhang Y, Ma N (2018) Spatiotemporal variability of snow cover and snow water equivalent in the last three decades over Eurasia. Journal of Hydrology 559, 238-251.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Zhang M, Chen F, Tian B, Liang D, Yang A (2020) Characterization of Kyagar Glacier and Lake Outburst Floods in 2018 Based on Time-Series Sentinel-1A Data. Water 12, 184.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Zhou H, Aizen E, Aizen V (2017) Seasonal snow cover regime and historical change in central Asia from 1986 to 2008. Global and Planetary Change 148, 192-216.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
