Hydrodynamics and larval dispersal: a population model of Acanthaster planci on the Great Barrier Reef

Abstract

This paper presents results of a modelling study of the large-scale population dynamics of Acanthaster planci in the central Great Barrier Reef. Dispersal patterns generated by larval transport models are used to drive the simulation. Population flow through the reef matrix during outbreaks is simulated by using an elementary representation of the starfish life cycle. Features of the results include the following:

(I) Population patterns generated by the model are consistent with observations of starfish outbreaks.

(2) The overall impact of starfish populations undergoing an outbreak on the reef system decreases with a southward shift in the location of initial outbreaks.

(3) Within the central Great Barrier Reef, outbreak populations of starfish generally occur more frequently on the inner- and central-matrix reefs than on the outer-matrix reefs.