Australian forested wetlands under climate change: collapse or proliferation?
Neil Saintilan
A J , Emma Asbridge B C , Richard Lucas D , Kerrylee Rogers B C , Li Wen E , Megan Powell A E , Matthew J. Colloff F , Jose F. Rodriguez G H , Patricia M. Saco G H , Steven Sandi G H , Tien Dat Pham A and Leo Lymburner I
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
B School of Earth, Atmospheric and Life Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
C GeoQuEST Research Centre, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
D Aberystwyth University, Aberystwyth, Wales, UK.
E Science, Economics and Insights Division, NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
F Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia.
G Centre for Water Security and Environmental Sustainability, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, NSW, Australia.
H School of Engineering, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, NSW, Australia.
I Geoscience Australia, Canberra, ACT, Australia.
J Corresponding author. Email: neil.saintilan@mq.edu.au
Marine and Freshwater Research 73(10) 1255-1262 https://doi.org/10.1071/MF21233
Submitted: 11 August 2021 Accepted: 18 October 2021 Published: 9 November 2021
Journal Compilation © CSIRO 2022 Open Access CC BY-NC-ND
Abstract
Climatically driven perturbations (e.g. intense drought, fire, sea surface temperature rise) can bring ecosystems that are already stressed by long-term climate change and other anthropogenic impacts to a point of collapse. Recent reviews of the responses of Australian ecosystems to climate change and associated stressors have suggested widespread ecosystem collapse is occurring across multiple biomes. Two commonly cited case studies concern forested wetland ecosystems: mangrove forest dieback in northern Australia (2015–16) and riverine forest dieback in the south-east of the continent (2002–09). We present an alternative interpretation that emphasises the dominant signal of climate change effects, rather than the interdecadal signal of climate variability that drives wetland forest dynamics. For both the south-east Australian riverine forests and mangroves of northern Australia, aerial extent remains greater after dieback than in the early 1990s. We interpret dieback and defoliation in both systems as a dry phase response and provide evidence of a current and near-future climate change trajectory of increased areal extent and cover (i.e. tree colonisation and range infilling). In both case studies, climate change-driven increases in tree cover and extent are occurring at the expense of wetland grasslands and the important ecosystem functions they support.
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