Spatially dynamic maternal control of migratory fish recruitment pulses triggered by shifting seasonal cues
Daisuke Goto A B G , Martin J. Hamel C , Mark A. Pegg C , Jeremy J. Hammen C D , Matthew L. Rugg C E and Valery E. Forbes A F
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A School of Biological Sciences, 348 Manter Hall, University of Nebraska—Lincoln, Lincoln, NE 68588, USA.
B Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin—Madison, 680 North Park Street, Madison, WI 53703, USA.
C School of Natural Resources, Hardin Hall, 3310 Holdrege Street, University of Nebraska—Lincoln, Lincoln, NE 68583, USA.
D Present address: Fish and Wildlife Conservation Office, 101 Park Deville Drive, Suite A, Columbia, MO 65203, USA.
E Present address: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks, 907 North Kendrick Avenue, Glendive, MT 59330, USA.
F Present address: College of Biological Sciences, University of Minnesota, 123 Snyder Hall, 1475 Gortner Avenue, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA.
G Corresponding author. Present address: Institute of Marine Research, Nordnesgaten 50, 5005 Bergen, Norway. Email: daisuke.goto2@gmail.com
Marine and Freshwater Research 69(6) 942-961 https://doi.org/10.1071/MF17082
Submitted: 26 March 2017 Accepted: 21 December 2017 Published: 8 March 2018
Abstract
Environmental regimes set the timing and location of early life-history events of migratory species with synchronised reproduction. However, modified habitats in human-dominated landscapes may amplify uncertainty in predicting recruitment pulses, impeding efforts to restore habitats invaluable to endemic species. The present study assessed how environmental and spawner influences modulate recruitment variability and persistence of the Missouri River shovelnose sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus platorynchus) under modified seasonal spawning and nursery habitat conditions. Using a spatially explicit individual-based biophysical model, spawning cycle, early life-history processes (dispersal, energetics and survival) and prey production were simulated under incrementally perturbed flow (from –10 to –30%) and temperature (+1 and +2°C) regimes over 50 years. Simulated flow reduction and warming synergistically contracted spring spawning habitats (by up to 51%) and periods (by 19%). Under these conditions, fewer mature females entered a reproductive cycle, and more females skipped spawning, reducing spawning biomass by 20–50%. Many spawners migrated further to avoid increasingly unfavourable habitats, intensifying local density dependence in larval stages and, in turn, increasing size-dependent predation mortality. Diminished egg production (by 20–97%) and weakened recruitment pulses (by 46–95%) ultimately reduced population size by 21–74%. These simulations illustrate that environmentally amplified maternal influences on early life histories can lower sturgeon population stability and resilience to ever-increasing perturbations.
Additional keywords: agent-based model, climate change, endangered species, phenology, spatially explicit model.
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