A Bayesian Belief Network approach to evaluating complex effects of irrigation-driven agricultural intensification scenarios on future aquatic environmental and economic values in a New Zealand catchment
John M. Quinn A F , Ross M. Monaghan B , Vincent J. Bidwell C D and Simon R. Harris E
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A NIWA, PO Box 11115 Hamilton, New Zealand.
B AgResearch, Invermay Agricultural Centre, PB 50034, Mosgiel, New Zealand.
C Lincoln Ventures Ltd, PO Box 133, Lincoln, Christchurch 7640, New Zealand.
D Present address: 17 Brookside Road, Rolleston 7614, New Zealand.
E Harris Consulting, PO Box 70, Lyttelton, Christchurch, New Zealand.
F Corresponding author. Email: j.quinn@niwa.co.nz
Marine and Freshwater Research 64(5) 460-474 https://doi.org/10.1071/MF12141
Submitted: 23 May 2012 Accepted: 6 September 2012 Published: 3 May 2013
Journal Compilation © CSIRO Publishing 2013 Open Access CC BY-NC-ND
Abstract
Agricultural intensification often has complex effects on a wide range of environmental and economic values, presenting planners with challenging decisions for optimising sustainable benefits. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) can be used as a decision-support tool for evaluating the influence of development scenarios across a range of values. A BBN was developed to guide decisions on water abstraction and irrigation-driven land use intensification in the Hurunui River catchment, New Zealand. The BBN examines the combined effects of different irrigation water sources and four land development scenarios, with and without a suite of on-farm mitigations, on ground and surface water quality, key socioeconomic values (i.e. farm earnings and jobs, and contribution to regional gross domestic production (GDP)) and aquatic values (i.e. salmon, birds, waterscape, contact recreation, periphyton and invertebrates). It predicts high farm earnings, jobs and regional GDP with 150% increase in irrigated area, but a range of positive and negative aquatic environmental outcomes, depending on the location of water storage dams and the application of a suite of on-farm mitigations. This BBN synthesis of a complex system enhanced the ability to include aquatic values alongside economic and social values in land-use and water resource planning and decision making, and has influenced objective setting in Hurunui planning processes.
Additional keywords: bathing water quality, braided river, dams, diffuse source pollution, discretisation, groundwater, macroinvertebrates, nitrate, on-farm contaminant mitigation, periphyton, phosphorus, salmon, waterbirds.
References
Allan, J. D. (2004). Landscapes and riverscapes: the influence of land use on stream ecosystems. Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics 35, 257–284.| Landscapes and riverscapes: the influence of land use on stream ecosystems.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Ausseil, O. (2010). Hurunui River – Influence of the middle reaches on water quality of the Lower Hurunui River (2005–2008). Environment Canterbury Report No. R08/55, Christchurch.
Ballantine, D. J., and Davies-Colley, R. J. (2009). Water quality trends at the NRWQN sites for the period 1989–2007. NIWA, Client Report HAM2009–026, Hamilton.
Bernhardt, E., Bunn, S. E., Hart, D. D., Malmqvist, B., Muotka, T., Naiman, R. J., Pringle, C., Reuss, M., and van Wilgen, B. (2006). Perspective: The challenge of ecologically sustainable water management. Water Policy 8, 475–479.
| Perspective: The challenge of ecologically sustainable water management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Biggs, B. J. F., and Close, M. E. (1989). Periphyton biomass dynamics in gravel bed rivers: the relative effects of flows and nutrients. Freshwater Biology 22, 209–231.
| Periphyton biomass dynamics in gravel bed rivers: the relative effects of flows and nutrients.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DyaK3cXksVGrs7Y%3D&md5=9248dd2d9690b73ec798865ed1ab9f37CAS |
Brown, I., Norton, N., Wedderburn, L., Monaghan, R. M., Harris, S., Hayward, S., and Ford, R. (2011). Nutrient management in Hurunui: A case study in identifying options and opportunities, Environment Canterbury Report No. R11/114, Christchurch.
Bryant, J. R., Ogle, G. I., Marshall, P. R., Glassey, C. B., Lancaster, J. A. S., Garcia, S. C., and Holmes, C. W. (2010). Description and evaluation of the Farmax Dairy Pro decision support model. New Zealand Journal of Agricultural Research 53, 13–28.
| Description and evaluation of the Farmax Dairy Pro decision support model.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3cXktlCitLk%3D&md5=f5d0217db1852b7ae6276e590444cae3CAS |
Butcher, G. (2010). Regional economic impacts and cost benefit analysis of the proposed Hurunui Irrigation Scheme. Butcher Partners and The Agibusiness Group, Christchurch.
Davies-Colley, R. J. (1988). Measuring water clarity with a black disc. Limnology and Oceanography 33, 616–623.
| Measuring water clarity with a black disc.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Davies-Colley, R. J., Smith, D. G., Ward, R., Bryers, G. G., McBride, G. B., Quinn, J. M., and Scarsbrook, M. R. (2011). Twenty Years of New Zealand’s National Rivers Water Quality Network: a Review. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 47, 750–771.
| Twenty Years of New Zealand’s National Rivers Water Quality Network: a Review.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3MXhtFCqsr3L&md5=f92a08da170f4e3983a981a88e60fbe7CAS |
DeFries, R. S., Foley, J. A., and Asner, G. P. (2004). Land-use choices: balancing human needs and ecosystem function. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 2, 249–257.
| Land-use choices: balancing human needs and ecosystem function.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Di, H. J., Cameron, K. C., and Sherlock, R. R. (2010). Comparison of the effectiveness of a nitrification inhibitor, dicyandiamide, in reducing nitrous oxide emissions in four different soils under different climatic and management conditions. Soil Use and Management 23, 1–9.
| Comparison of the effectiveness of a nitrification inhibitor, dicyandiamide, in reducing nitrous oxide emissions in four different soils under different climatic and management conditions.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Doak, M. 2005. Value of irrigation in New Zealand. In ‘OECD Workshop on agriculture and water: sustainability, markets and policies’, 14–18 November 2005, Adelaide, Australia.
Doll, P. (2002). Impact of climate change and variability on irrigation requirements: a global perspective. Climatic Change 54, 269–293.
| Impact of climate change and variability on irrigation requirements: a global perspective.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
ECan (2011). Proposed Hurunui and Waiau River Regional Plan Prepared under the Resource Management Act 1991. Environment Canterbury Regional Council, Christchurch.
Environment Canterbury (2011).Water Quality. In ‘Canterbury Natural Resources Regional Plan’. (Environment Canterbury Regional Council: Christchurch.) Available at http://ecan.govt.nz/publications/Plans/nrrp-chapter-4-operative-110611.pdf
Environment Canterbury (2012). The preferred approach for managing cumulative effects of land use on water quality in the Canterbury Region: A working paper. Environment Canterbury, Christchurch.
Falkenmark, M., Gottschalk, L., Lunqvist, J., and Wouters, P. (2004). Towards integrated catchment management: increasing the dialogue between scientists, policy-makers and stakeholders. International Journal of Water Resources Development 20, 297–309.
| Towards integrated catchment management: increasing the dialogue between scientists, policy-makers and stakeholders.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Friedl, G., and Wuest, A. (2002). Disrupting biogeochemical cycles – Consequences of damming. Aquatic Sciences 64, 55–65.
| Disrupting biogeochemical cycles – Consequences of damming.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD38XksVKrs7w%3D&md5=1dfde3ec7ead4493ad8a7c5c6a6d9f3dCAS |
Hamill, K. D., and McBride, G. B. (2003). River water quality trends and increased dairying in Southland. New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research 37, 323–332.
| River water quality trends and increased dairying in Southland.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Hart, B. T., and Pollino, C. A. (2009). Bayesian modelling for risk-based environmental water allocation. Waterlines Report Series No. 14, Water Science Pty Ltd and the Australian National University, Canberra.
Hickey, C. W., and Martin, M. L. (2009). A review of nitrate toxicity to freshwater aquatic species. Report No. R09/57, Environment Canterbury, Christchurch.
Hicks, D. M. (2010). River sediment transport and geomorphology: Draft Statement of evidence of Darryl Murray Hicks on behalf of Environment Canterbury In the matter of the Resource Management Act 1991 And in the matter of an application for a Water Conservation Order pursuant to Section 201 of the Act, and in the matter of the proposed National Water Conservation (Hurunui) Order Application. pp. 50.
Hume, T. M., Snelder, T., Weatherhead, M., and Liefting, R. (2007). A controlling factor approach to estuary classification. Ocean and Coastal Management 50, 905–929.
| A controlling factor approach to estuary classification.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Jakeman, A. J., and Letcher, R. A. (2003). Integrated assessment and modelling: features, principles and examples for catchment management. Environmental Modelling & Software 18, 491–501.
| Integrated assessment and modelling: features, principles and examples for catchment management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Jöborn, A. (2005). Summing Up: A 10-y Interdisciplinary Research Venture on Sustainable Water Management. Ambio 34, 270–271.
| 16042290PubMed |
Kragt, M. E., Newham, L. T. H., Bennett, J., and Jakeman, A. J. (2011). An integrated approach to linking economic valuation and catchment modelling. Environmental Modelling & Software 26, 92–102.
| An integrated approach to linking economic valuation and catchment modelling.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Lilburne, L., Elliott, S., Bidwell, V., Shankar, U., Kelly, D., and Hanson, C. (2011). Hurunui catchment scale land use and water quality modelling report. Technical Report No. R11/15, Environment Canterbury, Christchurch.
Liu, Y., Gupta, H., Springer, E., and Wagener, T. (2008). Linking science with environmental decision making: experiences from an integrated modeling approach to supporting sustainable water resources management. Environmental Modelling & Software 23, 846–858.
| Linking science with environmental decision making: experiences from an integrated modeling approach to supporting sustainable water resources management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
McDowell, R. W., van der Weerden, T. J., and Campbell, J. (2011). Nutrient losses associated with irrigation, intensification and management of land use: A study of large scale irrigation in North Otago, New Zealand. Agricultural Water Management 98, 877–885.
| Nutrient losses associated with irrigation, intensification and management of land use: A study of large scale irrigation in North Otago, New Zealand.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
MFE (1994). Water quality guidelines No. 2: Guidelines for the management of water colour and clarity. (Ministry for the Environment: Wellington.)
MFE (2010). ‘Application for a Water Conservation Order on the Hurunui River’. Available from: http://www.mfe.govt.nz/issues/water/freshwater/water-conservation/application-water-conservation.html. [Accessed on 12 April 2012]
MFE/MOH (2003). Microbial water quality guidelines for marine and freshwater recreation areas, Ministry of Environment and Ministry of Health, Wellington, 159 pp.
Monaghan, R. M., Carey, P. L., Wilcock, R. J., Drewry, J. J., Houlbrooke, D. J., Quinn, J. M., and Thorrold, B. S. (2009). Linkages between land management activities and stream water quality in a border dyke-irrigated pastoral catchment Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 129, 201–211.
| Linkages between land management activities and stream water quality in a border dyke-irrigated pastoral catchmentCrossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Morgan, P., Dark, A., Bright, J., Ward, N., and Sanson, J. (2010). Canterbury water management strategy: North Canterbury storage options. Riley Consultants Ltd, Aqualinc Research Ltd and Pattle Delamore Partners Ltd, Christchurch.
Nilsson, C., Lepori, F., Malmqvist, B., Törnlund, E., Hjerdt, N., Helfield, J. M., Palm, D., Östergren, J., Jansson, R., Brännäs, E., and Lundqvist, H. (2005). Forecasting environmental responses to restoration of rivers used as log floatways: An interdisciplinary challenge. Ecosystems 8, 779–800.
| Forecasting environmental responses to restoration of rivers used as log floatways: An interdisciplinary challenge.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Norsys (2005). ‘Netica™ Application: A complete software application to solve problems using Bayesian belief Networks and influence diagrams’.Available from: http://www.norsys.com [Accessed 27 January 2012].
O’Donnell, C. (2004). River bird communities. In ‘Freshwaters of New Zealand’.(Eds J.S. Harding, M.P. Mosley, C.P. Pearson and B.K. Sorrell), pp. 18.1–18.19. (New Zealand Hydrological Society and New Zealand Limnological Society, Christchurch).
Petts, G. E. (1984). ‘Impounded Rivers’. (John Wiley & Sons, Chichester).
Poff, N. L., Olden, J. D., Merritt, D. M., and Pepin, D. M. (2007). Homogenization of regional river dynamics by dams and global biodiversity implications. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 104, 5732–5737.
| Homogenization of regional river dynamics by dams and global biodiversity implications.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD2sXkt1Kgsb4%3D&md5=b0292d8cced608c47ef8be7fd6ea81a7CAS | 17360379PubMed |
Postel, S., and Richter, B. (2003). ‘Rivers for Life: Managing Water for People and Nature’. (Island Press, Washington, D.C.).
Postel, S. L., Dailey, G. C., and Ehrlich, P. R. (1996). Human appropriation of renewable fresh water. Science 271, 785–788.
| Human appropriation of renewable fresh water.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DyaK28Xptlyjtg%3D%3D&md5=9f20753204c61819b683454ce19f6e47CAS |
Power, M. E., Dietrich, W. E., and Finlay, J. C. (1996). Dams and downstream aquatic biodiversity: Potential food web consequences of hydrologic and geomorphic change. Environmental Management 20, 887–895.
| Dams and downstream aquatic biodiversity: Potential food web consequences of hydrologic and geomorphic change.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 8895411PubMed |
Quinn, J. M., and Raaphorst, E. (2009). Trends in nuisance periphyton at New Zealand National River Water Quality Network sites 1990–2006. Client Report: HAM2008–194, NIWA, Hamilton. http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/water/periphyton-nz-national-river-quality-network-1990-2006/periphyton-nz-national-river-quality-network-1990-2006.pdf.
Quinn, J. M., Monaghan, R. M., and Wilcock, R. J. 2010. Linking farm and waterway values – the Bog Burn catchment. In ‘Farming’s future: Minimising footprints and maximising margins’, Massey University, Palmerston North, (Eds L.D. Currie and C.L. Christensen.) pp. 63–77 (Fertilizer and Lime Research Centre,Palmerston North).
Reckhow, K. H. (1999). Water quality prediction and probability network models. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 56, 1150–1158.
Reckhow, K. H. (2003). Bayesian approaches to ecological analysis and modelling. In ‘Models in Ecosystem Science’.(Eds C.D. Canham, J.J. Cole and W.K. Laueroth), pp. 168–183. (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ).
Shenton, W., Hart, B. T., and Chan, T. (2011). Bayesian network models for environmental flow decision-making: 1. Latrobe River Australia. River Research and Applications 27, 283–296.
| Bayesian network models for environmental flow decision-making: 1. Latrobe River Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Snelder, T. H., and Biggs, B. J. F. (2002). Multiscale River Environment Classification for water resources management. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 38, 1225–1239.
| Multiscale River Environment Classification for water resources management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Stark, J. D. (1993). Performance of the Macroinvertebrate Community Index: effects of sampling method, sample replication, water depth, current velocity, and substratum on index values. New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research 27, 463–478.
| Performance of the Macroinvertebrate Community Index: effects of sampling method, sample replication, water depth, current velocity, and substratum on index values.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Stewart-Koster, B., Bunn, S. E., Mackay, S. J., Poff, N. L., Naiman, R. J., and Lake, P. S. (2010). The use of Bayesian networks to guide investments in flow and catchment restoration for impaired river ecosystems. Freshwater Biology 55, 243–260.
| The use of Bayesian networks to guide investments in flow and catchment restoration for impaired river ecosystems.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Unwin, M. (2008). Statement of evidence on behalf of New Zealand and Otago Fish & Game Council, Before the Minister for the Environment Special Tribunal In the matter of an Application by New Zealand and Otago Fish & Game Council for an Amendment to the Kawarau Water Conservation Order.
Uusitalo, L. (2007). Advantages and challenges of Bayesian networks in environmental modelling. Ecological Modelling 203, 312–318.
Wedderburn, L., Bewsell, D., Blackett, P., Brown, M., Kelly, S., Mackay, M., Maani, K., Montes, O., and Payne, T. (2011). Developing a preferred approach for managing cumulative effects of land uses on freshwater quality. AgResearch, Hamilton.
Wheeler, D. M., Ledgard, S. F., Monaghan, R. M., McDowell, R., and de Klein, C. (2006). Overseer® nutrient budget model – what it is, what it does. In ‘Implementing sustainable nutrient management strategies in agriculture’.(Eds L. D. Currie and J. A. Hanly.) pp. 231–236. (Fertiliser and Lime Research Centre, Palmerston North.)
White, T. A., Snow, V. O., and King, W. M. (2010). Intensification of New Zealand beef farming systems. Agricultural Systems 103, 21–35.
| Intensification of New Zealand beef farming systems.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Wilcock, R. J., Betteridge, K., Shearman, D., Fowles, C., Scarsbrook, M. R., Thorrold, B. S., and Costall, D. (2009). Riparian protection and farm best management practices for restoration of a lowland stream in an intensive dairy farming catchment: a case study. New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research 43, 803–818.
| Riparian protection and farm best management practices for restoration of a lowland stream in an intensive dairy farming catchment: a case study.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD1MXhtFKntb7N&md5=51fa5826e1b3a7035efc0a819e0928d0CAS |
Wilcock, R. J., Nash, D., Schmidt, J., Larned, S. T., Rivers, M. R., and Feehan, P. (2011). Inputs of nutrients and fecal bacteria to freshwaters from irrigated agriculture: Case studies in Australia and New Zealand. Environmental Management 48, 198–211.
| Inputs of nutrients and fecal bacteria to freshwaters from irrigated agriculture: Case studies in Australia and New Zealand.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 21365272PubMed |
Young, R., Smart, G., and Harding, J. (2004). Impacts of hydro-dams, irrigation schemes and river channel control works. In ‘Freshwaters of New Zealand’.(Eds J.S. Harding, M.P. Mosley, C.P. Pearson and B.K. Sorrell), pp. 37.1–37.15. (New Zealand Hydrological Society and New Zealand Limnological Society, Christchurch).
