The Effect of Different Attenuation Models on Earthquake Hazard in the Newcastle and Lake Macquarie Region, Australia

Abstract

Modelling earthquake hazard and risk involves the incorporation of source, attenuation, site response, building damage and financial loss models. Each of these input models has its own uncertainties. Moreover, in most cases there is more than one possible choice for each of the input models. For example, many regions of the world have several attenuation models that can be used in studies of earthquake hazard and risk. This paper demonstrates the need to incorporate multiple attenuation models when modelling earthquake hazard and risk by illustrating the effect of using three different attenuation models. Results indicate that varying the attenuation model can almost double the earthquake hazard and triple the earthquake risk estimates in the Newcastle and Lake Macquarie region.