Streamlining the graphical forecast process
Andrew Just A and Michael Foley B CA National Weather Service, Kansas City, United States of America.
B Bureau of Meteorology, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne Vic. 3001, Australia.
C Corresponding author. Email: michael.foley@bom.gov.au
Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 70(1) 108-113 https://doi.org/10.1071/ES19047
Submitted: 1 July 2020 Accepted: 27 August 2020 Published: 29 October 2020
Journal Compilation © BoM 2020 Open Access CC BY-NC-ND
Abstract
The national meteorological services of Australia and the United States have followed similar paths in modernising production of their public weather forecasts during the past two decades. Both have adopted grid-based forecasts constructed by forecasters using a graphical forecast process. As gridded forecasting has matured, both have worked to achieve a more streamlined and standardised forecast process, so as to free up forecaster time for other activities such as decision support and a focus on high-impact weather, while increasing consistency in the gridded forecasts. We will describe the paths followed in Australia and the U.S., specifically in the U.S. National Weather Service Central Region, towards a more streamlined graphical forecast process. Although the journeys have been rather different, they have converged on similar solutions. A variety of lessons have been learned regarding how to achieve effective change in weather forecast production, through grassroots engagement and management support.
Keywords: Australian Bureau of Meteorology, BoM, forecast process, GFE, Graphical Forecast Editor, National Blend of Models, NWS, NWP, Operational Consensus Forecast, Regional Forecast Centres, streamlining, U.S. National Weather Service.
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