Seasonal climate summary for the southern hemisphere (autumn 2017): the Great Barrier Reef experiences coral bleaching during El Niño–Southern Oscillation neutral conditions
Grant A. Smith
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Bureau of Meteorology, 700 Collins Street, Melbourne, Vic., Australia. Email: grant.smith@bom.gov.au
Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 69(1) 310-330 https://doi.org/10.1071/ES19006
Submitted: 7 November 2018 Accepted: 16 May 2019 Published: 11 June 2020
Journal Compilation © BoM 2019 Open Access CC BY-NC-ND
Abstract
Austral autumn 2017 was classified as neutral in terms of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), although tropical rainfall and sub-surface Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies were indicative of a weak La Niña. Despite this, autumn 2017 was anomalously warm for most of Australia, consistent with the warming trend that has been observed for the last several decades due to global warming. The mean temperatures for Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia were all amongst the top 10. The mean maximum temperature for all of Australia was seventh warmest on record, and amongst the top 10 for all states but Western Australia, with a region of warmest maximum temperature on record in western Queensland. The mean minimum temperature was also above average nationally, and amongst top 10 for Queensland, Victoria and Tasmania. In terms of rainfall, there were very mixed results, with wetter than average for the east coast, western Victoria and parts of Western Australia, and drier than average for western Tasmania, western Queensland, the southeastern portion of the Northern Territory and the far western portion of Western Australia. Dry conditions in Tasmania and southwest Western Australia were likely due to a positive Southern Annular Mode, and the broader west coast and central dry conditions were likely due to cooler eastern Indian Ocean sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) that limited the supply of moisture available to the atmosphere across the country. Other significant events during autumn 2017 were the coral bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), cyclone Debbie and much lower than average Antarctic sea-ice extent. Coral bleaching in the GBR is usually associated on broad scales with strong El Niño events but is becoming more common in ENSO neutral years due to global warming. The southern GBR was saved from warm SST anomalies by severe tropical cyclone Debbie which caused ocean cooling in late March and flooding in Queensland and New South Wales. The Antarctic sea-ice extent was second lowest on record for autumn, with the March extent being lowest on record.
References
Bureau of Meteorology, and CSIRO (2017). State of the Climate 2016. (Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO: Melbourne, Vic., Australia.)Davies, R. (2017a). ‘Indonesia – Homes Destroyed, 7 Dead after Floods and Landslides in Sulawesi, Borneo and Sumatra’. Available at http://floodlist.com/asia/indonesia-floods-sulawesi-borneo-sumatra-may-2017 [Verified 29 April 2020].
Davies, R. (2017b). ‘Chile – Deaths and Evacuations After Floods in Atacama and Coquimbo’. Available at http://floodlist.com/america/chile-floods-atacama-coquimbo-may-2017 [Verified 29 April 2020].
Davies, R. (2017c). ‘Peru – Thousands Affected by Floods and Landslides Across the Country’. Available at http://floodlist.com/america/peru-lima-floods-mudslides-march-2017 [Verified 29 April 2020].
Donald, A., Meinke, H., Power, B., Wheeler, M., and Ribbe, J. (2004). ‘Forecasting with the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the applications for risk management’. 4th International Crop Science Congress, Brisbane.
Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (2017). Final report: 2016 coral bleaching event on the Great Barrier Reef. (Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority: Townsville.)
Hall, A., and Visbeck, M. (2002). Synchronous variability in the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean resulting from the annular mode. J. Clim. 15, 3043–3057.
| Synchronous variability in the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean resulting from the annular mode.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., and Lo, K. (2010). Global surface temperature change. Rev. Geophys. 48, RG4004.
| Global surface temperature change.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Hendon, H. H., Thompson, D. W. J., and Wheeler, M. C. (2007). Australian rainfall and surface temperature variations associated with the Southern Hemisphere annular mode. J. Clim. 20, 2452–2467.
| Australian rainfall and surface temperature variations associated with the Southern Hemisphere annular mode.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Hendon, H. H., Zhang, C., and Glick, J. D. (1999). Interannual variation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation during austral summer. J. Clim. 12, 2538–2550.
| Interannual variation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation during austral summer.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Huang, B., Thorne, P. W., Banzon, V. F., Boyer, T., Chepurin, G., Lawrimore, J. H., Menne, M. J., Smith, T. M., Vose, R. S., and Zhang, H. M. (2017). Extended reconstructed Sea surface temperature, Version 5 (ERSSTv5): upgrades, validations, and intercomparisons. J. Clim. 30, 8179–8205.
| Extended reconstructed Sea surface temperature, Version 5 (ERSSTv5): upgrades, validations, and intercomparisons.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Hughes, T. P., and Kerry, J. T. (2017). ‘Back-to-back bleaching has now hit two-thirds of the Great Barrier Reef’, Conversat. Available at https://theconversation.com/back-to-back-bleaching-has-now-hit-two-thirds-of-the-great-barrier-reef-76092 [Verified 29 April 2020].
Hughes, T. P., Kerry, J. T., Álvarez-Noriega, M., Álvarez-Romero, J. G., Anderson, K. D., Baird, A. H., Babcock, R. C., Beger, M., Bellwood, D. R., Berkelmans, R., Bridge, T. C., Butler, I. R., Byrne, M., Cantin, N. E., Comeau, S., Connolly, S. R., Cumming, G. S., Dalton, S. J., Diaz-Pulido, G., Eakin, C. M., Figueira, W. F., Gilmour, J. P., Harrison, H. B., Heron, S. F., Hoey, A. S., Hobbs, J. A., Hoogenboom, M. O., Kennedy, E. V., Kuo, C., Lough, J. M., Lowe, R. J., Liu, G., McCulloch, M. T., Malcolm, H. A., McWilliam, M. J., Pandolfi, J. M., Pears, R. J., Pratchett, M. S., Schoepf, V., Simpson, T., Skirving, W. J., Sommer, B., Torda, G., Wachenfeld, D. R., Willis, B. L., and Wilson, S. K. (2017). Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals. Nature 543, 373–377.
| Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
IPCC (2013). ‘Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’. (Eds T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P. M. Midgley) (Cambridge University Press: United Kingdom and New York.)
Kanamitsu, M., Ebisuzak, W., Woollen, J., Yang, S.-K., Hnilo, J. J., Fiorino, M., and Potter, G. L. (2002). NCEP-DEO AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2). Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 83, 1631–1643.
| NCEP-DEO AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2).Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Kiribati Meteorological Service (2017). Kiribati Drought Update, Tarawa. Available at https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/kdu0317.pdf [Verified 29 April 2020].
Kuleshov, Y., Qi, L., Fawcett, R., and Jones, D. (2009). Improving preparedness to natural hazards: Tropical cyclone prediction for the Southern Hemisphere. Adv. Geosci. 12, 127–143.
Madden, R. A., and Julian, P. R. (1971). Detection of a 40–50 day oscillation in the Zonal Wind in the Tropical Pacific. J. Atmos. Sci. 28, 702–708.
| Detection of a 40–50 day oscillation in the Zonal Wind in the Tropical Pacific.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Madden, R. A., and Julian, P. R. (1972). Description of global-scale circulation cells in the tropics with a 40–50 day period. J. Atmos. Sci. 29, 1109–1123.
| Description of global-scale circulation cells in the tropics with a 40–50 day period.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Madden, R. A., and Julian, P. R. (1994). Observations of the 40–50-day tropical oscillation – a review. Mon. Wea. Rev. 122, 814–837.
| Observations of the 40–50-day tropical oscillation – a review.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Maddox, S. (2017). MHL2574: NSW Ocean and River Entrance Tidal Levels Annual Summary 2016–2017, Manly Vale.
Marshall, G. J. (2003). Trends in the Southern Annular Mode from observations and reanalyses. J. Clim. 16, 4134–4143.
| Trends in the Southern Annular Mode from observations and reanalyses.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Martin, D. (2016). Seasonal climate summary southern hemisphere (spring 2015): El Niño nears its peak. J. South. Hemisph. Earth. Syst. Sci. 66, 228–261.
Morice, C. P., Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A., and Jones, P. D. (2012). Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: the HadCRUT4 data set. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 117, D08101.
| Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: the HadCRUT4 data set.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, (2017). State of the climate: global climate report for annual 2016. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 98, 1–298.
NIWA (2017). Seasonal Climate Summary: Autumn 2017. (NIWA: Auckland.)
Puri, K., Dietachmayer, G., Steinle, P., Dix, M., Rikus, L., Logan, L., Naughton, M., Tingwell, C., Xiao, Y., Barras, V., Bermous, I., Bowen, R., Deschamps, L., Franklin, C., Fraser, J., Glowacki, T., Harris, B., Lee, J., Le, T., Roff, G., Sulaiman, A., Sims, H., Sun, X., Sun, , Zhu, H., Chattopadhyay, M., and Engel, C. (2013). Implementation of the initial ACCESS numerical weather prediction system. Aust. Meteorol. Oceanogr. J. 63, 265–284.
| Implementation of the initial ACCESS numerical weather prediction system.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Reynolds, R. W., Rayner, N. A., Smith, T. M., Stokes, D. C., and Wang, W. (2002). An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J. Clim. 15, 1609–1625.
| An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Risbey, J. S., Pook, M. J., McIntosh, P. C., Wheeler, M. C., and Hendon, H. H. (2009). On the remote drivers of rainfall variability in Australia. Mon. Wea. Rev. 137, 3233–3253.
| On the remote drivers of rainfall variability in Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Saji, N. H., Goswami, B. N., Vinayachandran, P. N., and Yamagata, T. (1999). A dipole mode in the tropical Indian ocean. Nature 401, 360–363.
| A dipole mode in the tropical Indian ocean.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Smith, T. M., and Reynolds, R. W. (2005). A global merged land-air-sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historical observations (1880-1997). J. Clim. 18, 2021–2036.
| A global merged land-air-sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historical observations (1880-1997).Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Takahashi, K., and Martínez, A. G. (2019). The very strong coastal El Niño in 1925 in the far-eastern Pacific. Clim. Dyn. 52, 7389–7415.
| The very strong coastal El Niño in 1925 in the far-eastern Pacific.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Troup, A. J. (1965). The Southern Oscillation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 91, 490–506.
| The Southern Oscillation.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
UNOCHA ROAP (2017). ‘The Country Preparedness Package: Strengthening local humanitarian response in Marshall Islands and beyond’. Available at https://ocharoap.exposure.co/the-country-preparedness-package [Verified 29 April 2020].
Wheeler, M. C., and Hendon, H. H. (2004). An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev. 132, 1917–1932.
| An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: development of an index for monitoring and prediction.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Wolter, K., and Timlin, M. S. (1993). Monitoring ENSO in COADS with a seasonally adjusted principal component index. Proc. 17th Clim. Diagnostics Work, pp. 52–57.
Wolter, K., and Timlin, M. S. (1998). Measuring the strength of ENSO events: How does 1997/98 rank? Weather 53, 315–324.
| Measuring the strength of ENSO events: How does 1997/98 rank?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
World Meteorological Organization (2018). WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2017. (World Meteorological Organization: Geneva.)
Wright, P. B. (1989). Homogenized long-period Southern Oscillation indices. Int. J. Climatol. 9, 33–54.
| Homogenized long-period Southern Oscillation indices.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
