Sea surface height trends in the southern hemisphere oceans simulated by the Brazilian Earth System Model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios
Emanuel Giarolla A F , Sandro F. Veiga B C , Paulo Nobre C , Manoel B. Silva
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Centre for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies, Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (CPTEC/INPE), São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil.
B Earth System Science Centre, Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (CCST/INPE), São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil.
C Centre for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies, Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (CPTEC/INPE), Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil.
D Amazonas State University, Manaus, AM, Brazil.
E University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany.
F Corresponding author. Email: egiarolla@yahoo.com.br
Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 70(1) 280-289 https://doi.org/10.1071/ES19042
Submitted: 27 August 2019 Accepted: 13 July 2020 Published: 8 October 2020
Journal Compilation © BoM 2020 Open Access CC BY-NC-ND
Abstract
The Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM-OA2.5), while simulating the historical period proposed by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), detects an increasing trend in the sea surface height (SSH) on the southern hemisphere oceans relative to that of the pre-industrial era. The increasing trend is accentuated in the CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future scenarios with higher concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This study sheds light on the sources of such trends in these regions. The results suggest an association with the thermal expansion of the oceans in the upper 700 m due to a gradual warming inflicted by those future scenarios. BESM-OA2.5 presents a surface height increase of 0.11 m in the historical period of 1850–2005. Concerning future projections, BESM-OA2.5 projects SSH increases of 0.14 and 0.23 m (relative to the historical 2005 value) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, by the end of 2100. These increases are predominantly in a band of latitude within 35–60°S in the Atlantic and Indian oceans. The reproducibility of the trend signal detected in the BESM-OA2.5 simulations is confirmed by the results of three other CMIP5 models.
Keywords: Brazilian Earth System Model, CMIP5, IPCC AR5 scenarios, RCP4.5, RCP8.5, sea level trends, sea surface height, southern hemisphere oceans.
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