Developing impact-based thresholds for coastal inundation from tide gauge observations
Ben S. Hague A B C , Bradley F. Murphy A , David A. Jones A and Andy J. Taylor A
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Bureau of Meteorology, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne, Vic. 3001, Australia.
B School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, Vic., Australia.
C Corresponding author. Email: ben.hague@bom.gov.au
Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 69(1) 252-272 https://doi.org/10.1071/ES19024
Submitted: 3 December 2018 Accepted: 14 October 2019 Published: 11 June 2020
Journal Compilation © BoM 2019 Open Access CC BY-NC-ND
Abstract
This study presents the first assessment of the observed frequency of the impacts of high sea levels at locations along Australia’s northern coastline. We used a new methodology to systematically define impact-based thresholds for coastal tide gauges, utilising reports of coastal inundation from diverse sources. This method permitted a holistic consideration of impact-producing relative sea-level extremes without attributing physical causes. Impact-based thresholds may also provide a basis for the development of meaningful coastal flood warnings, forecasts and monitoring in the future. These services will become increasingly important as sea-level rise continues.
The frequency of high sea-level events leading to coastal flooding increased at all 21 locations where impact-based thresholds were defined. Although we did not undertake a formal attribution, this increase was consistent with the well-documented rise in global sea levels. Notably, tide gauges from the south coast of Queensland showed that frequent coastal inundation was already occurring. At Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, impact-based thresholds were being exceeded on average 21.6 and 24.3 h per year respectively. In the case of Brisbane, the number of hours of inundation annually has increased fourfold since 1977.
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