Tracking the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in real-time: a staged communication approach to event onset

Abstract

Communicating the development of El Niño and La Niña events is often challenging, largely due to the general misconception that the transition to an event can occur rapidly – like flicking a switch. Additionally, in Australia the association of El Niño with drought, and La Niña with flood, and the impacts that result, can often cloud the message. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is responsible for issuing updates on the current status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and declaring the onset and demise of an event. To assist in the communication of this often complex message, the Bureau of Meteorology developed an online tool, the ENSO Outlook, to keep stakeholders informed of the potential for El Niño or La Niña to develop in the upcoming seasons.