Gridded return values of McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index across New South Wales

Abstract

Bushfire represents a significant risk within the Australian environment, and providing a spatial estimate of the risk represents a challenge for producing planning guidelines. The primary method for estimating day-to-day fire weather risk within Australian fire fighting operational environments has been the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index, which is an empirical index taking into account both fire weather and fuel moisture factors. This paper considers a statistical method for estimating long-period return values for the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index across New South Wales, using Extreme Value theory. This approach is then applied to a spatial reanalysis dataset so that the level of fire danger risk can be evaluated across the landscape.