Quantitative bushfire risk assessment framework for severe and extreme fires

Abstract

We describe a new framework for quantitative bushfire risk assessment that has been produced by Geoscience Australia as a part of the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre’s (Bushfire CRC) research program. The framework builds upon the well-defined processes in the Australian Risk Management standard (AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009) and the National Emergency Risk Assessment Guidelines. It is aimed at assisting state-of-the-art fire research in Australia, and fire risk managers in state and territory governments, by (a) defining the essential elements for calculating bushfire risk, (b) providing a reference on how to undertake a computational bushfire risk assessment and, (c) indirectly, improving the quality and consistency of information on bushfire risk in Australia. There is a need for improved risk information to address the recommendations on bushfire risk management from the inquiries held after disastrous fires in Australia in the past decade. Quantitative techniques will improve this risk information. However, quantitative bushfire risk assessment is in its infancy in Australia. We use the example of calculating house damage and loss to demonstrate the elements of the framework.