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Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science SocietyJournal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science Society
A journal for meteorology, climate, oceanography, hydrology and space weather focused on the southern hemisphere
RESEARCH ARTICLE (Open Access)

Modelling heatwaves: connecting an empirical Markov process model with an autoregressive model

Warwick Grace

Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal 61(1) 43 - 52
Published: 2011

Abstract

The frequency, intensity and duration of heatwaves at sites in mid-latitude Australia are modelled by a Markov process model and an autoregressive model with both producing typical relative errors of ten to fifteen per cent. The Markov model requires a location-specific empirical coefficient and this coefficient is shown to have a dependency on the summer-time autocorrelation and a seasonality index. Applying the autoregressive model to simple idealised climates, a very similar dependency is found which serves to demonstrate a connection between the two models. The use of detrended temperature, rather than actual temperature, has no material effect on the results

https://doi.org/10.1071/ES11004

© Commonwealth of Australia represented by the Bureau of Meterology 2011. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommerical-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND).

Committee on Publication Ethics

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