Session 14. Oral Presentation for: An uneasy truce: a post-intervention gas market in Eastern Australia
Kaushal Ramesh A *A
Kaushal Ramesh is Vice President of LNG and Head of Rystad Energy’s Gas and LNG Analytics and manages their published LNG research, focussing on LNG trading, shipping, and investments. His past advisory work includes project economics, regulatory impact studies, market entry strategies and LNG contract negotiations. Prior to joining Rystad Energy, Kaushal worked multiple roles at ExxonMobil, managing commercial operations of refined products and LNG, and gas and power sales contracts in the Asia-Pacific, as well as advising spot cargo trades, LNG contracting, and investment decisions as a market analyst. |
Abstract
Presented on Wednesday 22 May: Session 14
We present our analysis of the East Coast fundamentals and our long-term gas price assumptions through 2033 in Wallumbilla and the southern states. The paper concludes that the market has a chance to return from the brink of dysfunction. The replacement of lower-cost legacy supply near demand centres with higher-cost coal seam gas (CSG) from a remote region in another state through limited infrastructure – or liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports – fundamentally signals higher prices even as domestic demand declines from 520 PJ in 2023 to 425 PJ in 2033 with possible intermittent increases during coal retirements. Added to the mix is long-term demand and policy uncertainty, the current era of monetary tightening and vanishing finance for fossil fuel projects. The relationship between East Coast gas producers in Australia and the federal government appears to have de-escalated following the inclusion of potential price cap exemptions in the recently released mandatory code of conduct for the domestic wholesale gas market. Gas remains a crucial long-term input in the manufacturing sector and will continue to support gas intensive industries if price alignment can be achieved, which is what will be needed to ensure the gas sector’s longevity in the energy transition. We also discuss the role of gas in the National Electricity Market which is headed for an increasingly chaotic coal exit, keeping gas extremely relevant to support system resilience.
To access the Oral Presentation click the link on the right. To read the full paper click here
Keywords: Australia, east coast, electricity, gas, imports, industry, LNG, market, prices.
Kaushal Ramesh is Vice President of LNG and Head of Rystad Energy’s Gas and LNG Analytics and manages their published LNG research, focussing on LNG trading, shipping, and investments. His past advisory work includes project economics, regulatory impact studies, market entry strategies and LNG contract negotiations. Prior to joining Rystad Energy, Kaushal worked multiple roles at ExxonMobil, managing commercial operations of refined products and LNG, and gas and power sales contracts in the Asia-Pacific, as well as advising spot cargo trades, LNG contracting, and investment decisions as a market analyst. |
