Goldilocks dilemma: lower cost, more supply, reduced emissions, and reliable trading partner. What is the outlook for Australia getting the gas balance just right?

Abstract

Australia’s east and west coast domestic gas markets are physically and geographically separated. Each Australian gas market has followed a different trajectory, with the west being defined by large liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, a relatively small domestic market, and a long-standing domestic gas reservation that historically ensured the domestic market was oversupplied and prices remained low. The east coast market instead relied for decades on supply from the Cooper and Gippsland basins which only supplied the domestic market, with both now in decline. The establishment of LNG export capacity in Queensland connected the east coast market to international markets for the first time and was followed by bans and moratoriums on gas development in some jurisdictions. Notwithstanding their very different history, both markets now face potential domestic supply shortages within a decade, and both have experienced government intervention in the past 12 months. Government’s stated aims are to lower prices, ensure ongoing investment in supply, reduce emissions, and continue LNG exports. This paper examines forecast supply and demand, the impact of government intervention, net zero policies and the importance of maintaining Australia’s export reputation as a reliable supplier. Getting this balance just right will require a challenging ‘Goldilocks moment’, with serious consequences if we get it wrong.