Concurrent 25. Oral Presentation for: A geopolitical nightmare: the battle of energy security and the energy transition
Daniel Toleman A *A Wood Mackenzie, Perth, WA, Australia.
The APPEA Journal 63 - https://doi.org/10.1071/AJ22387
Published: 2 June 2023
Abstract
Presented on Wednesday 17 May: Session 25
War in Europe has transformed the global geopolitical landscape and Russia has weaponised its commodities. Europe’s energy market is now out of control. Europe will never rely on Russia for anything again. But, can Europe live with no gas supply from Russia at all? This has had far-reaching consequences for the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry. Volatility and sky-high prices are now an enormous risk to gas demand. Long hailed the ‘transition fuel’. Record gas prices pose a dilemma for governments who must balance climate change goals with mounting energy security concerns. Affordability is particularly pressing in the booming Asian markets that are underpinning much of the next wave of supply. It is in these markets that gas should play a critical role to facilitate the power sector transition from coal to renewables. In addition, about half of gas demand is in non-power sectors, contributing as industrial feedstock and heating fuel. In many of these sectors, gas simply cannot be replaced by renewables, and despite all eyes on Europe for now, the longer-term LNG story will remain centred around Asia. In this paper, Wood Mackenzie will argue that Asian gas demand can rebound and will remain robust as new supply emerges, reinforcing the longevity of LNG investments. But the race is on. Australian LNG must reduce its emissions and ensure contractual attractiveness to remain competitive against a wave of new low-cost, low-emission projects that are rapidly moving forwards around the world.
To access the Oral Presentation click the link on the right. To read the full paper click here
Keywords: activism, Australia, Australian LNG, carbon, China, commercial arrangement, company strategy, complex gas, demand response, energy transition, fuel switching, gas, gas commercialisation, global LNG, Japan, Korea, LNG, LNG buyers, LNG prices, majors.
Daniel Toleman joined Wood Mackenzie’s Australian Upstream and LNG research team in 2018 as a content lead. During this time, his focus has been on LNG and gas monetisation, project economics, corporate strategy and industry trends. Daniel has also participated in a wide range of consulting projects including new business development, market advisory, opportunity screenings and cost benchmarking. Prior to Wood Mackenzie, Daniel worked at Shell Australia across a variety of Planning, Finance and Treasury roles. Dan’s qualifications include his CPA (2015), as well as a Bachelor of Laws (LLB), Bachelor of Commerce (B.Com.) and a Bachelor of Economics (B.Ec.) (Hons) from the University of Western Australia (2012). |
