Concurrent 12. Presentation for: Strategic decision making for late-life assets
Adrian Sikorski A *A Decision Frameworks, Adelaide, SA, Australia.
The APPEA Journal 62 - https://doi.org/10.1071/AJ21342
Published: 3 June 2022
Abstract
Presented on Wednesday 18 May: Session 12
Aging assets late in their cumulative production cycle are increasingly common in the upstream oil and gas industry. Capturing the remaining value from these and extending their life to maximise remaining value prior to abandonment comes with a different set of challenges from the early development phase. The aim of the paper is to showcase how oil and gas companies can structure their strategic planning and decision making in relation to aging assets, identify and evaluate a spectrum of life extending operating strategies, and compare them to cessation of production, incorporating key risks, and uncertainties. Using structured decision techniques, insights about alternative late-life strategies can be gained. This information is essential to decision makers facing the common dilemma of ‘extend or end’ for assets where the bulk of the value has already been captured. We will introduce the fundamentals of Decision Quality and use them to evaluate some of the key engineering aspects associated with late-life asset management. We will showcase an example drawn from consulting for clients in Europe. The worked example addresses the following questions: How can I push the cessation of production date into the future? Does deferring abandonment justify running at a loss for a while? Are incremental investments justified given the remaining field life? How do I determine which options to pursue and develop a viable business case? How do I manage the uncertainties that might offer opportunity or catch me out?
To access the presentation click the link on the right. To read the full paper click here
Keywords: decision analysis, decision quality, decision tree, late life, range of value, remaining value, strategic planning, strategy, strategy table, structured decision, tornado analysis.
Adrian Sikorski is an experienced decision practitioner with wide experience in applied decision making, economic analysis, and portfolio management techniques. He consults, facilitates, and trains using his experience in decision analysis, project economics, strategy development, development planning, portfolio management, and commercialisation. With his degree in Engineering from Colorado School of Mines, Adrian worked as an engineer and commercial professional in the international upstream oil and gas business for 14 years before focusing to decision professional applications in 2016. His experience ranges across the entire upstream: exploration, appraisal, production, and processing in multiple geologic and geographic settings, through to downstream LNG, and wholesale gas markets. Adrian holds a Master of Petroleum Business Management from the University of Adelaide. He is a member of the Society of Decision Professionals, Society of Petroleum Engineers, the Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering, and the Petroleum Exploration Society of Australia. |
