A time series analysis of exploration in the North West Shelf
Maria Irene Inggrid A * , Michael Braim A and Munish Kumar AA ERCE APAC, Singapore, Singapore.
The APPEA Journal 62 S436-S441 https://doi.org/10.1071/AJ21057
Accepted: 9 March 2022 Published: 13 May 2022
© 2022 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of APPEA.
Abstract
The North West Shelf (NWS) of Australia has seen a stellar increase in oil and gas discoveries, from less than 30 just 50 years ago to more than 180 today. It also hosts the ‘NWS Project’, Australia’s largest resource development project involving petroleum extraction, offshore production platforms, LNG processing plant, and LNG export hub, contributing to over 50% of Australia’s LNG export in 2020. In the last decade, discoveries have slowed down, with only four discoveries since 2010. Here, we undertook a data-driven analysis of which factors contributed to this ‘NWS boom and bust’. We noted numerous factors, the most important ones being technology and economic drivers. We arrived at this conclusion by building a time series and correlating key exploration activities to the number of discoveries and oil price. We found that (a) exploration steadily increased from the late 1960s due to 2D seismic, which coincided with oil price surge, (b) improved computational capacity spurred 3D seismic acquisition in 1981, boosting discoveries, and (c) 3D seismic acquisition in frontier areas began in the late 2000s, with the rate of discoveries flattening in 2010 as drilling became more challenging. We observed large areas of undrilled acreage covered by 3D seismic with plans for future seismic acquisition despite some of these areas equating to expensive wells and higher risks. With further work on existing 3D seismic coupled with insights from upcoming acquisitions, we would be able to develop a better subsurface understanding of these frontier basins and apply the knowledge to petroleum exploration as well as emerging energy economies like geothermal and carbon capture and storage (CCS).
Keywords: Australia, carbon capture, CCS, discovery, exploration, field, North West Shelf, oil and gas, petroleum, seismic, well.
Maria Irene Inggrid is a Geoscientist at ERC Equipoise, based in Singapore. She holds a BSc degree with Honours (Distinction) in Environmental Earth Systems Science from Nanyang Technological University, with a specialisation in Geosciences (2020). She is also a member of Indonesian Petroleum Association (IPA). At ERCE, she has worked on various hydrocarbon evaluation and exploration projects. As a geoscientist, Inggrid is responsible for evaluation of various aspects relating to geology and subsurface work, including geophysics and geomodelling. Her work includes volumetric calculation, geological risking, depth conversion, and seismic interpretation. She is comfortable working with large quantities of data and is familiar with programs like Kingdom, Petrel, Surfer, Hampson Russel, Crystal Ball (Monte Carlo), ArcGIS, and MATLAB. She has also been involved in the market and commercial evaluation of oil and gas projects, primarily for reserves evaluation. |
Michael Braim is the Head of Geophysics and a Principal Geoscientist at ERC Equipoise Asia Pacific. He holds a MSci degree in Geophysics from University of Leeds (2011) and is a member of PESGB, EAGE, SEG, and SEAPEX. Michael has over 10 years’ experience in subsurface evaluation and is responsible for the management of the Geophysics Group within ERCE. He has extensive skills in multi-layer depth conversion methods, volumetric calculation, rock physics, and seismic interpretation. Michael applies his knowledge to structural and stratigraphic prospect identification as well as the refinement of field understanding post drill, integrating the full suite of geological and geophysical data. Michael has also undertaken a number of studies within our Expert Group, providing technical expertise for submission in arbitration, determination, and re-determination. As a Principal Geoscientist, Michael leads many of our multifaceted audit and subsurface technical projects, combining datasets from various disciplines to form a comprehensive view on field volumetrics or prospect identification. |
Munish Kumar is currently a Staff Petrophysicist at ERC Equipose based in Singapore, where he works on matters related to reserves auditing, M&A due diligence, technical expert support in legal matters, and greenhouse gas evaluation and validation. His experience spans across Asia (Indonesia, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, China, Brunei, Malaysia), PNG, Australia, Gulf of Mexico, Mexico, Alaska, Africa, Cuba, Russia, Ukraine, and Brazil. He has previously worked as a Senior Petrophysicist with Total Asia Pacific Exploration (Singapore) where he focused on operational petrophysics and formation evaluation of assets in Asia, Australia, and the Pacific region. Prior to this, he was a Senior Petrophysicist with ExxonMobil (Exploration, Development, and Production) in Australia and Houston. He has a PhD in Physics and Engineering (Applied Mathematics & Physics) from the Australian National University (2010) and a BEng (Hons) in Electrical and Computer Engineering from the National University of Singapore (2005). His interests include multiphase flow in reservoir systems, core analysis, computer vision and image analysis, machine learning applications, data analytics applications, renewables, and carbon capture and storage. He is a member of the Society of Petrophysicists and Well Log Analysts (SPWLA) and Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE). |
References
Bond GC, Nickeson PA, Kominz MA (1984) Breakup of a supercontinent between 625 Ma and 555 Ma: new evidence and implications for continental histories. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 70, 325–345.| Breakup of a supercontinent between 625 Ma and 555 Ma: new evidence and implications for continental histories.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Bradshaw M (1988) Palaeogeographic evolution of the North West Shelf region. In ‘Petroleum Exploration Society of Australia Symposium’. pp. 29–54. (PESA: Perth)
Davies RJ, Stewart SA, Cartwright JA, Lappin M, Johnston R, Fraser SI, Brown AR (2004) 3D seismic technology: are we realising its full potential? Geological Society, London, Memoirs 29, 1–10.
| 3D seismic technology: are we realising its full potential?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Global LNG Hub (2021) Another Australian LNG export record in 2020. Available at https://globallnghub.com/another-australian-lng-export-record-in-2020.html
Longley I, Buessenschuett C, Clydsdale L, Cubitt C, Davis R, Johnson M, Marshall N, Murray A, Somerville R, Spry T (2002) The North West Shelf of Australia – a Woodside perspective. The Sedimentary Basins of Western Australia 3, 27–88.
Metcalfe I (1999) Gondwana dispersion and Asian accretion: an overview. In ‘Gondwana dispersion and Asian accretion’. pp. 9–28. (A. A. Balkema)
Purcell P, Purcell R (1988) The North West Shelf, Australia-an Introduction. (Petroleum Exploration Society of Australia).
Romine K (1994) High resolution seismic survey of the Exmouth, Barrow, and Dampier sub-basins, North West Shelf, Australia. (Australian Geological Survey Organisation).
Rsytad Energy (2020) The COVID-19 downturn slashed Australia’s oil and gas workforce by a quarter, effect will be lasting. Press release, 17 November 2020. Available at https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/the-covid-19-downturn-slashed-australias-oil-and-gas-workforce-by-a-quarter-effect-will-be-lasting/
Taylor ML, Thompson NB, Taylor NC (1998) The Perseus field, North West Shelf, Australia: a giant gas accumulation in a complex structural/stratigraphic trap. The APPEA Journal 38, 52–67.
| The Perseus field, North West Shelf, Australia: a giant gas accumulation in a complex structural/stratigraphic trap.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Wood Mackenzie (2020) Re-inventing the North West Shelf. Available at https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/re-inventing-the-north-west-shelf/
