Regional parametric sensitivity analysis of Walloon Subgroup CSG production
Daren Shields A B , Fengde Zhou A and Joan Esterle AA School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Centre for Coal Seam Gas, University of Queensland, Brisbane St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia.
B Corresponding author. Email: daren.shields@uq.net.au
The APPEA Journal 57(1) 277-287 https://doi.org/10.1071/AJ16022
Accepted: 28 February 2017 Published: 29 May 2017
Abstract
Following two decades of intensive exploration, coal seam gas (CSG) production in the Surat Basin has begun to dramatically increase to meet the capacity of three newly completed CSG to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects. As the industry’s focus shifts from appraisal to exploitation, the production forecasts underpinning these LNG projects are being tested. In some cases predicted reservoir performance is found to be invalidated by observed production data, a condition that may require costly amendments to project schedule and scope. The deviation between actual and predicted reservoir performance can often be attributed to an incomplete understanding of parametric uncertainties present in static or dynamic reservoir models. To address this limitation, this study aims to explore the parametric controls upon CSG production behaviours with a series of simulation experiments. Distributions of reservoir parameters were compiled from 152 open-source well completion reports available in three areas along the eastern edge of the Surat Basin. These distributions were validated and then sampled to extract representative ranges for subsurface factors including gas content, permeability, net coal thickness, Langmuir pressure, Langmuir volume and drainage area. These inputs were used to construct single well radial models, which were then simulated to generate predictions of monthly and cumulative produced fluid volumes. The results of this study indicate that net coal thickness and lateral coal connectivity are the most sensitive factors with respect to cumulative gas production, while permeability was the single most influential parameter affecting the rate of gas production.
Keywords: coal seam gas, sensitivity experiment, Surat Basin.
Daren Shields holds a bachelor’s degree from Simon Fraser University, a master’s degree from the University of Aberdeen, and is now a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Queensland. He has worked as a petroleum geologist for operators and consultancies in Canada, the US, Australia and Malaysia. |
Fengde Zhou is a research fellow at the University of Queensland. Before joining UQ, he was an Associate Professor at the China University of Geosciences in China and an Associate Research Fellow at the University of New South Wales in Australia. He received his Ph.D. in Petroleum Engineering. He is a professional member of the Society of Petroleum Engineering and was an Associate Editor of the Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering. He was awarded as the Top Reviewer of the Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering in 2012. He completed several research projects in reservoir characterisation and numerical simulation for conventional and unconventional oil and gas reservoirs. |
Joan Esterle is the Chair of the Vale-UQ Coal Geoscience Program in the School of Earth Sciences, where she teaches Energy Resources, Sedimentary Environments, and Introductory Coal Geology to engineering students. Since 2008, she has built a research portfolio at the University of Queensland that examines the geological controls underpinning coal and strata behaviour during mining, processing and utilisation and, more recently, during coal seam gas extraction. In addition to Vale, her sponsorship base includes the Australian Coal Association Research Program, the Department of Natural Resources and Mines, and individual coal mining and coal seam gas companies. Before joining UQ, Professor Esterle spent 17 years with CSIRO as both a project and group leader in Coal Geology and Mining Geoscience, and 2 years as a consultant with GeoGAS–Runge Mining. She is active in a number of societies and industry committees, in particular the Bowen Basin Geologists Group (BBGG), a vehicle for networking and intellectual exchange for coal geologists. |
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