ASPECTS OF EXPLORATION AND DEVELOPMENT, VULCAN SUB- BASIN, TIMOR SEA

Abstract

The Timor Sea, comprising the Territory of Ashmore and Cartier Islands and adjacent waters, is emerging as a major Australian oil- producing area which will contribute significantly to the national economy and Australia's oil self- sufficiency in the 1990s. From the Jabiru field alone, Timor Sea oil production contributes 9 per cent of Australia's oil production. The Timor Sea will soon rank second only to Bass Strait in terms of daily production from any one area. If success rates are maintained, Timor Sea could be producing 200 000 BOPD (32 000 kL/d) by the mid- 1990s.

Early phases of exploration in the area focused on the detection and drilling of large structures. Success rates were low, mainly because of poor quality seismic data which hindered structural definition and lack of geological understanding as to the controls of hydrocarbon accumulations. Since the Jabiru discovery in 1983, better exploration methods have resulted in the delineation of many prospects which could contain significant oil reserves. New play concepts being developed will result in additional prospects.

Economic forecasting and modelling are key factors in determining exploration and development project viability in the area, owing to the wide range in size of the prospects and discoveries. Assuming current economic factors remain in place, modelling indicates that field sizes likely to be found in the Timor Sea will be commercial.